WNBA Expansion: Can Toronto or Portland Match Golden State’s Playoff Feat?

WNBA expansion betting preview: Can Portland Fire or Toronto Tempo match the 2025 Valkyries? Odds, history and 2026 playoff outlook.
WNBA Expansion: Can Toronto or Portland Match Golden State’s Playoff Feat?

The Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo join the WNBA this season, giving WNBA betting a boost. Can either team match the first-year success that the Golden State Valkyries found last year?

How will the Fire and Tempo compare with other WNBA first-year expansion clubs? RotoWire.com broke down the numbers on the WNBA's 11 expansion clubs since 1998, giving context for where the league's 14th and 15th clubs might go in 2026.

Data Viz
How WNBA First-Year Expansion Teams Fared
The Toronto Tempo and the second iteration of the Portland Fire will begin play in 2026. The 2026 WNBA regular season starts May 8 and the two new teams are getting their lineups aligned after assembling their rosters. How have WNBA first-year expansion teams fared in the past? Here is a look, ordered by winning percentage (the original eight clubs from the league's 1997 inaugural season are not included):
.330
Combined Win Pct.
1 of 11
Made Playoffs
120–244
Combined Record
.567
Best First-Year Pct.
Team Season Record Win Pct. Playoffs?
Dallas Wings# 1998 17–13 .567
No
Golden State Valkyries 2025 23–21 .523
Yes
Connecticut Sun^ 1999 15–17 .469
No
Minnesota Lynx 1999 15–17 .469
No
Miami Sol* 2000 13–19 .406
No
Portland Fire*@ 2000 10–22 .313
No
Indiana Fever 2000 9–23 .281
No
Seattle Storm 2000 6–26 .188
No
Chicago Sky 2006 5–29 .147
No
Atlanta Dream 2008 4–30 .118
No
Washington Mystics 1998 3–27 .100
No
Total (11 teams) 120–244 .330
# Wings franchise played in Detroit from 1998 to 2009, then in Tulsa from 2010 to 2015.
^ Sun franchise played in Orlando from 1999 to 2002.
* Defunct franchise.
@ This is for the original Portland Fire franchise that operated from 2000 to 2002, not the new one that starts play this season.

2025 Golden State Valkyries Set New Standard

Golden State went 23-21 last season and reached the playoffs, becoming the first of the 11 first-year expansion teams in WNBA history (excluding the league's inaugural 1997 season) to make the postseason. The Minnesota Lynx eliminated the Valkyries 2-0 in the best-of-three first round, but the 2025 debutants still gave Portland and Toronto something to strive for.

And given how much money the Tempo have splashed in free agency, signing the league's first "million-dollar backcourt" of veterans Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes, it seems Toronto aims to be a force right out of the gate. First-round draft pick Kiki Rice (above at the draft with WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert) is another piece of the puzzle.

See WNBA 2026 Pay Raise Tracker: Every Confirmed Salary Increase Under the New CBA for more on league's new economics in the wake of a new labor agreement.

Portland, meanwhile, will lean on veteran guard Haley Jones (previously of the Dallas Wings) as Rose City returns to the league, a generation after the original Portland Fire went out of business in 2002 after a three-year WNBA run. The Fire 2.0 has acquired a cast of WNBA mainstays that had been role players, such as guard Sug Sutton, forward Bridget Carleton and center Luisa Geiselsoder.

WNBA Expansion Teams History and First-Year Performance

Dating back to the WNBA's first round of expansion back in 1998, only one team has reached the league's postseason in their debut campaign. That was the 2025 Valkyries. The Detroit Shock (the franchise that's now the Dallas Wings) were the only other club to finish above-.500, going 17-15 in 1998 but missing the playoffs.

Overall, first-year clubs have a 120-244 record (a .330 winning percentage) dating to 1998. The Atlanta Dream posted a dreadful .118 winning percentage (4-30) in 2008 and the 1998 Washington Mystics had the worst debut campaign, going 3-27 (.100) out of the gate.

Legal sports betting apps will have a variety of futures and prop wagers for the 2026 WNBA season.

The first iteration of the Portland Fire went 10-22 (.313) in its inaugural 2000 season. The year before, two expansion teams came close to finishing at the .500 mark. The Orlando Miracle (now the Connecticut Sun) and the Minnesota Lynx each went 15-17 in 1999.

Portland Fire and Toronto Tempo 2026 WNBA Betting Odds

This year, it seems like oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook are betting on the Fire and Tempo to follow the normal pattern of WNBA first-year expansion teams (other than the Valkyries).

As of April 21, Toronto is holding +425 odds of making the WNBA Playoffs in 2026 with the sports betting operator. Portland's odds are even longer, at +1500 to reach the postseason this year.

Elsewhere, Caesars Sportsbook is giving the Tempo a win total over/under of 16.5 in 2026 during the league's 44-game schedule, with -130 odds on the over (versus +100 odds on the under). The Fire have an over/under of 11.5, with matching +100 odds on the under and -130 odds on the over.

At BetMGM Sportsbook, Toronto's win total over/under is pinned at 15.5, with +325 odds that they reach the postseason in 2026. Portland has a win total over/under of 11.5 and +1000 odds of making it into the playoff field this fall.

Portland and Toronto Spending Amid New WNBA Labor Deal

Portland will count on big acquisitions such as Carleson (who'll earn $1.246 million in 2026) and Sutton ($425,000 this year) to step up their point production as starters.

Up north, Toronto's relying on splashy spending to get the job done. Veteran center Temi Fagbenle signed a one-year deal with the Tempo for $1 million. Sykes signed a two-year deal worth $1.190 million and Mabrey inked a two-year, $1.2 million dollar contract, illustrating how committed the club is to winning right away.

Will the league's reset salary structure help even the playing field and help Toronto and Portland become more competitive more quickly?

Portland and Toronto will serve as the latest chapters in the WNBA's rapid rise across the North American sporting landscape. The league will now have teams in two countries and the product keeps bringing in fans of all ages. In the 30th WNBA season, see Which WNBA Team Is Growing Their Online Fanbase The Most? for more ways to track the league's growth.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Christopher has covered the sports betting industry for more than seven years, and takes the lead on both sports analysis and legislative developments for GDC Group. His work has also appeared on ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
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