Ag-Pro 300
Location: Talladega, Alabama
Course: Talladega Superspeedway
Format: Tri-Oval
Lap Length: 2.66 miles
Laps: 113
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Race Preview
In some cases, the data available to us paints a good picture of what will occur at an upcoming race. Last week was an example, as some of the top showings at Kansas aligned with the information we had. Taylor Gray added to his impressive sophomore season by taking the checkered flag, a lead he initially grabbed during a green-flag pit cycle relatively late in the race. Brandon Jones continued to perform well at Kansas Speedway by finishing eighth, with the other traditional powers in the series performing well, such as Justin Allgaier and Sheldon Creed.
In some ways, there are likely to be predictable parts of this weekend's race at Talladega, but a superspeedway always introduces chaos that will almost certainly lead to some surprising results.
Key Stats at Talladega
- Number of Races: 39
- Winners from Pole: 3
- Winners from top-five starters: 14
- Winners from top-10 starters: 21
Previous 10 Talladega Winners
Fall 2025 – Austin Hill
Spring 2025 – Austin Hill
Fall 2024 – Sammy Smith
Spring 2024 – Jesse Love
2023- Jeb Burton
Fall 2022- AJ Allmendinger
Spring 2022- Noah Gragson
Fall 2021 – Brandon Brown
Spring 2021- Jeb Burton
Fall 2020- Justin Haley
All NASCAR fans understand that superspeedways introduce an extra amount of unpredictability on a race weekend, and the data backs up that experience. The last winner that started on pole was Justin Haley, who won this race in the spring of 2020. Since then, only two of the 10 winners have started the race inside the top five, while three began from outside the top 15.
Analysis by manufacturer typically isn't that insightful, but Talladega may be an exception. The last 13 winners at the superspeedway have been Chevrolet drivers. Most recently, the dominant team has been Richard Childress Racing, highlighted by wins from Austin Hill and Jesse Love.
NASCAR O'Reilly Series DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Ag-Pro 300
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 DraftKings Values
Austin Hill - $11,000
Jesse Love- $10,500
Tier 2 DraftKings Values
Sheldon Creed - $9,500
Sammy Smith - $9,200
Carson Kvapil - $9,000
Ryan Sieg- $8,200
Tier 3 DraftKings Values
Jeb Burton - $8,000
William Sawalich - $7,800
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Anthony Alfredo - $7,400
Tier 4 DraftKings Values
Brennan Poole - $6,500
Josh Williams - $6,300
Blaine Perkins - $6,100
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Ag-Pro 300
Austin Hill - $11,000
Sheldon Creed - $9,500
Jeb Burton - $8,000
Harrison Burton - $7,500
Anthony Alfredo - $7,400
Brennan Poole - $6,500
Much like the first few weeks of the season, building through the top of the driver pool is pretty straightforward. Hill and Love have been a dominant RCR duo at the track, combining to lead 240 of the 452 laps in the last two years. Hill has two wins to one for Jesse Love in that span, but Love has a marginally higher driver rating (116.9 to 112.3), has led more laps (125 to 115), and has a better average finish (5 to 9.8). Either is a good driver to build through. Rostering both is possible, but would require at least one punt play – likely two.
One case to roster both Hill and Love is that the Tier 2 drivers are a weaker class than usual. Creed – as is the case at nearly every track – is very solid at Talladega, logging three top 10s in his last four races. Kvapil is another solid driver in the tier. He has a mediocre track record at Talladega overall, but he finished second in the fall and has been a breakout driver early in 2026.
Tiers 3 and 4 are both relatively strong. Both Jeb and Harrison Burton have experienced success at Talladega. Jeb Burton has three top-10 finishes in his last four races and has never finished worse than 17th at the track in 11 total races. Harrison Burton hasn't been quite that strong, but he finished 13th and eighth in his two races at Talladega last season. Even better for DK scoring purposes is that he rose from 30th and 29th qualifying positions in those two races. Alfredo has an inflated price this week, making it feel like a bad time to roster him. However, he does have an average finish of 17.8 in his last four races. There is a caveat to that, as he's finished 29th and 33rd in addition to third and sixth in that span.
There are similarly several options in Tier 4. Poole is another driver with a history of success at Talladega. He's finished inside the top 20 in his last five races at the superspeedway, and in six of his eight overall races at the track. Perkins has a more recent track record of success, finishing seventh and sixth in the last two races and a driver rating above 85 on each occasion.
Best Bets for Ag-Pro 300
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Friday
Race Winner
Austin Hill (+350), Jesse Love (+450), Carson Kvapil (+1600)
Head-to-Head Matchups
Sammy Smith (-125) vs. Jeb Burton (-105)
Carson Kvapil (-115) vs. Sam Mayer (-115)
It's not exactly creative, but Love and Hill are rightfully the favorites to take home the win. Love is arguably the better choice based on all the factors discussed above, and he comes with slightly better odds. Kvpail finished second at Talladega in the fall and then seventh at Daytona to begin 2026. He's an okay value as a longer shot option.
The head-to-head matchups are more interesting. Smith has had boom or bust results at Talladega, while Burton has been far more consistent. Smith is the more likely winner, but Burton has the consistency to turn in a better result in the head-to-head matchup. Kvapil is one of my favorite drivers of the weekend besides the RCR drivers, making him a pretty clear preference relative to Mayer.
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