NASCAR Barometer: Byron Wins New-Look Atlanta Race

Atlanta Motor Speedway underwent a repave and reconfiguration project during the winter in an effort to promote the pack-style racing typically seen at Daytona and Talladega. The experiment worked, and the 1.5-mile oval kept the entire field bunched together, leveraging drafting and pushing to move forward. The race was a unique change for an intermediate circuit and produced a record number of lead changes with 23 of 37 drivers finishing on the lead lap. Like Daytona, avoiding trouble was a key to success, and William Byron did just that to grab his first victory of the 2022 season. Chevrolet-powered cars were the class of the field taking five of the top six positions. The race produced an astounding 20 different leaders with Byron dominating that statistic with 111 laps led from 325. 

The series shift gears again this week, as drivers and teams prepare for a trip to Austin, Texas, and the Circuit of the Americas. Last year's race was a treacherous affair with heavy rain creating difficult and blinding conditions that posed problems for many of the contenders. However, Chase Elliott rose to the occasion to capture the inaugural Cup Series victory at the track. Byron's win last week leaves Elliott as the only Hendrick Motorsports teammate yet to win in 2022, but that could all change this week with the first road course visit of the year.

UPGRADE

William Byron – Byron sidestepped the early pitfalls to win the opening stage at Atlanta Sunday, and then followed that up with a convincing move for the lead late in Sunday's race to capture his first victory of 2022. The Hendrick Motorsports driver raced at the front of the field all afternoon, leading 111 total laps, and got the lucky breaks he needed to keep his car undamaged and in position to strike for the win. A monster push from behind with just 10 laps remaining was the last thing he needed to retake the lead and win Sunday's race. The Hedrick Motorsports driver missed stage points in both segments of last season's water-logged race at Circuit of the Americas but ended the treacherous day in 11th.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney had a fast car throughout the opening stages of Sunday's trip to Atlanta and won the second stage. He remained in position to battle for the victory in the final stage, but aggressive pushing caught him out on the final lap. That small mistake dropped him from the top five all the way down to 17th. While the finish position was not reflective of his potential, he should remain confident of finding his way into Victory Lane soon given his early-season pace. This week's trip to Texas will be a different challenge, though Blaney does have a road course victory on his resume. Blaney started inside the top 10 last season at COTA but only managed a 17th-place finish in the difficult, wet conditions.

Ross Chastain – Despite being caught in a few of Sunday's crashes, Chastain persevered and grabbed another runner-up finish, his second in a row. In fact, Sunday's finish was his third consecutive finish of third or better. Chastain has taken a big step forward in competitiveness since joining Trackhouse Racing this season, and he continues to knock on the door for a maiden Cup Series win. Chastain is one of the handful of drivers who has been competitive on each type of track so far this season, too. Fantasy players should keep him as a top consideration each week until this trend subsides. That includes this week at COTA, too. Last year he persevered for a fourth-place finish in the very difficult conditions, which should be a good omen for more success this week.

Chase Elliott – Elliott may not have gotten the hometown win he was hoping for last week at Atlanta, but his sixth-place finish might be more of a confidence booster ahead of this week's race. Sunday's finish was his third top-10 and best finish of the season so far. He now has three finishes of 11th or better in a row with a road course on the horizon. Fantasy players know how dangerous Elliott is on road courses, and the added boost of Sunday's result could put him in a confident position heading into this weekend's race. Elliott already has seven career road course wins, which is third on NASCAR's all-time road course winners list behind only Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart. Elliott could tie Stewart for second on that list with another win this coming week at Austin.

Daniel Suarez – Suarez's fourth-place finish Sunday meant both Trackhouse cars finished in the top five, the only team to accomplish that feat last week. The finish was his second top-five of the season and his third top-10 of the season so far. Both drivers have been milling around the front of the running order each week and could be close to a breakthrough win for the second-year team that now leaves Atlanta with both drivers in playoff contention in the standings. Suarez ran afoul of the treacherous conditions at Austin last season and finished eight laps behind the leader. He does have two road course top-fives, though, and added two top-15 finishes to his road course resume last season.

DOWNGRADE

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is one of the likely early-season candidates for a first series win. He has been competitive each week and has been ahead of teammate Austin Dillon, too. He had two top-10 finishes heading into Sunday's race and spent a good portion of the race in the top five. He picked up stage points in the first segment, but then suffered a rear-tire failure while racing at the front of the pack, losing control and crashing out of the race less than 100 laps to the finish. A quick rebound could be in the cards for him and the team this week at Austin, however. Reddick successfully navigated the challenging conditions in last year's race to score a ninth-place finish and has five total road course top-10s from 10 starts in the Cup Series.

Kyle Larson – Larson's early exit from Sunday's QuikTrip 500 puts him in the downgrade column for the second week in a row. The Chevrolet driver was one of the quick ones early on, but an ill-placed push from Denny Hamlin turned him into the outside wall and out of the race early. His early-season victory at Fontana was a blessing, considering he hasn't finished in the top 30 in the last two races. Up next is a road course, however, and we know Larson has upped his game on those tracks in the past year. The coming week's trip to Austin could be a much-needed boost for Larson to make a return to the top 10. He finished second there last season to teammate Elliott, and next week's race could be another battle between the teammates.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin was involved in a few incidents Sunday at Atlanta, but the one just prior to the finish of the second stage was his undoing. The DNF was disappointing considering the day's attrition and the fact that Hamlin had a car that could race at the front of the field. In the end, the damage from that final crash was too much for him and the team to overcome. The car was so skewed sideways when he returned to the track that it would have been undriveable for the entire final stage. Sunday's finish was his third outside of the top 20 in the first five races. He is not in a playoff position in the standings and has a best finish of just 13th from the first five races of the season. Hamlin needs to turn things around quickly. He finished 14th at Austin last year.

Kyle Busch – After racing at the front early at Atlanta Busch found himself in multiple incidents. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver would have been hoping for a better afternoon, especially considering the extra practice beforehand given the new surface and configuration. Instead, bad luck reared its ugly head and sent Busch into a downward spiral. Busch started in the top five, but turned his car into the garage early after being unable to overcome the multiple bouts of damage. Like everyone else, he'll have to adjust his approach to this week's race being a road course. Busch was able to navigate the pitfalls of COTA last season and finished 10th. He is one of the better road course racers in the series, which should put him in the running for his fourth top-10 of the year.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Corey Lajoie – Maybe it shouldn't have come as a surprise, but Lajoie left Sunday's race at Atlanta with a fifth-place finish. He didn't qualify well and started the race back in the 33rd position, but he successfully raced his way forward to earn his best ever finish in the series. His prior best this season was 14th at the Daytona 500, which is why Sunday's result probably shouldn't have been a surprise. Lajoie has been consistently scoring top finishes at superspeedways, and the reconfiguration of Atlanta's track played right into his strengths. Sunday's finish was Lajoie's third top-15 finish of the season, and fantasy players should remember this as tracks like Daytona, Talladega, and now Atlanta pop up on the schedule later this season.