eero 400 Preview: Welcome Back to the Windy City

This Sunday afternoon the stars of NASCAR will head to the Windy City and Chicagoland Speedway for the eero 400. The 1.5-mile oval in Joliet, Illinois boasts the same characteristics of many of the intermediate ovals on the circuit, but with a twist. Whereas Charlotte, Texas and Atlanta are steeply banked, Chicagoland Speedway is somewhat less banked. Turns 1 through 4 provide 18-degree banking, which gives the drivers some high speeds but also heightened handling sensitivity. The front stretch has 11 degree banking and the back stretch has very flat 5-degree banking. The groove is limited in width and passing is a lot trickier than most tri-ovals as a result. The crew chiefs will be challenged this weekend to give their drivers a car that will handle comfortably enough for the drivers to push them to the edge and make the tough pass. If you have a handling issue at Chicago's oval, you won't be able to man-handle the car like we saw recently at the much more forgiving Charlotte Motor Speedway. No, a driver with an ill-handling car at this oval has to drive patiently until a pit stop and adjustments can be made. 

The NASCAR Cup Series raced at this oval from 2001 to 2019 and had quite a colorful history at the track. However, the sanctioning body decided to stop racing here after the 2019 season and the track has sat largely silent for the last six years. That all changed with last season's schedule release and the announcement that NASCAR would be returning to Chicagoland Speedway.

Since this will be our first and only race of the season at Chicago and first race in six years at the oval, we need to visit the recent historical statistics for this track. While Chicagoland Speedway is similar to many of the intermediate ovals on the circuit, it still has enough characteristics which make it unique. So, we'll need to study the loop stats very carefully to identify the track specialists at Chicago. When we combine that information with current hot streaks and drivers who have fared well this year on 1.5-mile tracks, we should be able to easily develop this week's driver selections. The loop stats shown below cover the last 15 races at Chicagoland Speedway.

Chevrolet drivers had been pretty dominant on this oval since the NASCAR Cup Series started racing here in 2001. Drivers from this manufacturer captured six of the first seven victories at this 1.5-mile oval, and seven of the first 11 as well. However, other teams had something to say about that in the last few seasons the Cup Series competed here. Toyota and Ford drivers won six of the last seven races held at Chicagoland Speedway up until the 2019 season. So, Chevrolet teams effectively lost their iron grip on this intermediate oval, however, the last race at the track saw a victor from the bowtie brand's camp. Alex Bowman's win here in June of 2019 stands as the most recent Chevrolet win and last race at Chicagoland Speedway. With the long break in action, we'll soon see if Chevrolet can defend their win or will the dominant Toyotas step up and start a new streak at this intermediate oval.

Joe Gibbs Racing driver's took all five of those final victories for Toyota at Chicago. Only Denny Hamlin remains from that lineup, and he'll be a driver of big focus once again this Sunday. As for Chevrolet's chances of returning to Chicago victory lane after the very long break, those hopes will primarily rest with Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. They've really been the top performing drivers of late for the bowtie brand. We'll take a look at this season's intermediate oval aces and some past history at Chicagoland Speedway and give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your league in the eero 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:30 PM ET Wednesday

Denny Hamlin (+320)  – The driver of the No. 11 Toyota comes to Chicago ready for more ovals after a struggle-filled outing at Sonoma Raceway this past Sunday. An intermediate oval will be just what the doctor ordered after what was a hard day in California last week.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star won this event in 2015 for his only victory at Chicagoland Speedway. However, Hamlin does sport a strong 50-percent Top-10 rate at this track over 14 starts. He's been a force on the cookie cutter ovals this season with wins at Las Vegas and Nashville and a runner-up finish at Texas. With a razor sharp 4.6 average finish on these mid-sized ovals this season, Hamlin should be seen as the driver to beat this Sunday.

Tyler Reddick (+550) – NASCAR's return to Chicago should be seen as a net positive for Reddick and his No. 45 Toyota team. With victories already this season at Atlanta and Kansas, the cookie cutter ovals have been kind to this driver and team. Reddick has never made a Cup Series start at this intermediate oval, however, he does have two-career O'Reilly Series starts at Chicagoland Speedway so he's not unfamiliar with the layout and configuration. Coming off 42 laps led and a strong sixth-place finish at Sonoma this past Sunday, Reddick will be motivated to challenge for another win on an oval this season. The eero 400 promises to be a big opportunity for the 23XI Racing star in NASCAR's return to Chicago.

Kyle Larson (+600) – Larson will likely be Chevrolet's best chance at a visit to victory lane in NASCAR's return to Chicagoland Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports star has never won at the Joliet track, but he finished runner-up there both times in NASCAR's last two starts at  the oval. His four Top-5 finishes in six starts at Chicago work out to a strong 67-percent Top-5 rate and razor sharp 6.2 average finish across those six starts. Larson has been on point this season with his intermediate oval performance. He hasn't won yet but has a runner-up finish at Kansas and a 60-percent Top-10 rate to go along with his 258 laps led. He should be seen as a real threat to the Toyotas in the eero 400.

Chase Elliott (+1200) – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is making his fifth-career start at Chicago this weekend and it's an opportunity for Elliott to impress. He has a pair of Top-5 finishes in his four prior starts here, including a runner-up finish in 2017. Elliott also has an O'Reilly Series win at this oval way back in 2014. His intermediate oval performance in 2026 has been spot on with a win at Texas and runner-up finish at Las Vegas. The 11.8 average finish and near-100 laps led on these size ovals is a good testament to his performance this season. Elliott came from deep in the field to finish a strong seventh-place recently at Nashville Superspeedway. He has a high fantasy racing ceiling in NASCAR's return to Chicagoland Speedway.     

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Ryan Blaney (+1000) – Blaney has been pretty consistent on the intermediate ovals this season, especially of late. He has four Top 10's in six starts on mid-sized oval for a strong 67-percent rate. The most recent being a steady eighth-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway. The speed has been in the No. 12 Ford and Blaney has been delivering on the finishes. The Penske Racing star has four prior Cup Series starts at Chicagoland Speedway with two Top-10 finishes in those outings. The average finish stands at a strong 9.8 across those starts. With 28 laps led in those four starts, Blaney was doing a little more than follow the leader in these Chicago races. He should pick up right where he left off here in 2019.

Chase Briscoe (+1200) – Coming off a strong runner-up finish at Sonoma Raceway this past Sunday, Briscoe rides that momentum into Sunday's eero 400. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver doesn't have any Cup Series history at Chicagoland Speedway, so this will be his first-career start at the Joliet oval. However, he does have a pair of O'Reilly Series starts at the track with a reasonable 12.0 average finish between those two efforts. Briscoe has been a steady producer on the mid-sized ovals in 2026. He has four Top 10's in six starts (67-percent) and his most recent outing was a brilliant third-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway at the end of May. He and the No. 19 Toyota team should forge another Top 10 on Sunday afternoon in the Windy City.    

Christopher Bell (+850) – Bell put to rest some of the concerns about his still-healing wrist at Sonoma this past week. Just one week removed from stepping out of the car at San Diego, Bell stayed in the No. 20 Toyota at Sonoma and earned a strong fifth-place finish in the Toyota / Save Mart 350. He'll look to build on that with an intermediate oval effort this Sunday. Bell has been a hit-or-miss producer on the mid-sized ovals with three Top 5's in six starts (50-percent), but a high ceiling is there. He grabbed a pair of runner-up finishes at both Charlotte and Nashville and has led 182 combined laps in his six starts on the intermediate ovals this season. He should be in good form in Sunday's eero 400.

Daniel Suarez (+5500) – One of the more consistent performers of the season on the intermediate ovals is Suarez and his No. 7 Spire Motorsports team. The veteran driver won a surprising victory at Charlotte and has three Top 10's on the mid-sized ovals this season. That includes his strong sixth-place finish in Texas. Suarez has been around long enough that he has three-career Cup Series starts at Chicagoland Speedway. They are 12th-, 11th- and 24th-place efforts for a reasonable 15.7 average finish. Suarez is coming off a disappointing performance at Sonoma Raceway and will be rebound minded coming to the Windy City this week.    

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Chicagoland & Solid Upside

Brad Keselowski (+4500) – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford is coming off a gritty and determined Top-15 finish at Sonoma this past week. That was out of his comfort zone, but a mid-sized oval is right up his ally. Keselowski needs a boost, and it all starts with a good performance at Chicagoland Speedway this Sunday afternoon. He won here in his championship season of 2012 and he also claimed a victory in this event in 2014. The veteran driver will hope to revive those performances in this very important race. Keselowski rides a strong nine-race Chicago Top-10 streak into this weekend's action, despite the long break from racing here. He's generally been a Top-10 or Top-15 finisher on the mid-sized ovals this season.

William Byron (+1200) – Byron has been trying to get his slow season back on track and making some strides the last few weeks. A third-place finish at Pocono was followed by a steady 12th-place finish this past weekend at Sonoma. Now he'll look to much friendlier venues like a mid-sized oval in Chicago. Byron has just two-career Cup Series starts here but his last one made a good impression with 9 laps led and an eighth-place finish in 2019. The intermediate ovals have been a highlight of this driver and team in 2026. Byron has four Top 10's on these size tracks with a strong 11.0 average finish. Last time out he grabbed a ninth-place finish at Charlotte. That's a reasonable goal in NASCAR's return to Chicagoland Speedway.

Bubba Wallace (+2800) – It's been an on-again and off-again stretch for Wallace and the No. 23 team of late. A pair of Top 5's in the last four races have been offset by a pair of finishes outside the Top 20. He's looking for some stability and consistency in his performance, so a visit to Chicago is very timely for this veteran driver. Wallace has two-career starts here with unremarkable results, but the experience is the key factor. Mid-sized ovals have been good tracks for the 23XI Racing veteran with four Top-10 finishes this season and a stout 10.6 average finish across the span. Most recently, his Charlotte and Nashville outings have been forgettable, but Wallace should rebound nicely in the eero 400.   

Carson Hocevar (+2500) – Hocevar's recent 10th-place finish at Nashville Superspeedway is a good measuring stick for his potential this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway. The young driver has never made a start here but should take to it right away. The Spire Motorsports youngster has been pretty competitive on the intermediate ovals this season. He grabbed a pole position and seventh-place finish at Texas and was a Top-15 finisher at Kansas. The mid-sized ovals were his best tracks when Hocevar was winning in the Camping World Truck Series. That talent has translated well to the Cup Series as well. We have expectations of a good qualifying effort and good finish for Hocevar in Chicago.       

Ty Gibbs (+1400) – Gibbs is another young driver who's never laid eyes on Chicagoland Speedway. He was just 16-years-old and competing in the ARCA/Menards Series the last time NASCAR visited this oval. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has been wired pretty tight on the mid-sized ovals this season with three Top 10's (60-percent) and a Top-15 finish most recently at Nashville Superspeedway. Gibbs has not been a big lap leader on these tracks with just 18 total, but he's typically maintained the lead lap and had a shot at good finishes at most of them. He's coming off a pole position and strong third-place finish at Sonoma this past Sunday, so momentum is on Gibbs' side.    

Chris Buescher (+2200) – He snapped a three-race Top-10 streak with his subpar 19th-place finish at Sonoma Raceway this past Sunday. Buescher will look to rebound with another oval in the offing. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has qualified extremely well on these size tracks in 2026. Buescher has managed an average start of 6.8 on these 1.5-mile ovals. That good starting track position has been converted into one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes for a sound 13.2 average finish. Buescher has made four prior Cup Series starts at Chicago but they came with lesser equipped teams like Front Row Motorsports and HYAK Motorsports. This weekend will be the best car Buescher has ever brought to Chicagoland Speedway and we expect the results to follow.

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Joey Logano (+3000) – Despite seven-career Top 10's (64-percent) and a strong 11.5 average finish across 11 starts at Chicagoland Speedway, we're fading the Penske Racing star this weekend. Logano is a very different driver now than the last time we raced in Chicago in 2019. The driver of the No. 22 Ford has just five Top 10's thus far this season and is currently in a three-race Top-10 drought. Mid-sized ovals have been a real problem for Logano this season with only one Top 10 (20-percent) and an inflated 21.6 average finish. He was Top 15 last time out at Nashville Superspeedway, but that's been about the best Logano can muster this season on the cookie cutter ovals.

Ross Chastain (+5500) – It's been a tough season for Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team. Even his best intermediate oval (Nashville Superspeedway) turned into an early-race crash and DNF. Chastain does have two-career Cup Series starts in Chicago, so that's the good news. He does have experience here. However, the bad news is that the Trackhouse Racing veteran has been very poor on the mid-sized ovals in 2026. With just one Top-10 finish (20-percent) and a lowly 21.4 average finish, Chastain has found it difficult to maintain the lead lap on these tracks this season. While things have looked better of late for this driver and team, we're still pessimistic about his chances in a return to Chicagoland Speedway.                         

Josh Berry (+25000) – With the recent announcement that Berry and Wood Brothers Racing will be parting ways at the end of the season, his lame duck campaign continues. Of the regular Cup Series drivers in the field, Berry has some of the worst counting stats and average stats on mid-sized ovals this season. His five starts on 1.5-mile ovals have yet to yield a Top-20 finish and they check in at a disappointing 30.8 average finish for the No. 21 Ford team. Berry has never made a Cup Series start at Chicagoland Speedway so that lack of experience is another strike against him this weekend. He's a driver to avoid in weekly lineup games for the eero 400.     

Michael McDowell (+20000) – McDowell does have nine-career Cup Series starts at Chicago's oval, but the results were far from desirable. He only visited the Top 20 once in those starts and logged a disappointing 34.7 average finish. Fast forward to today and this veteran driver is having struggles on the cookie cutter ovals. McDowell's five starts this season have only netted one Top-15 finish and a subpar 24.2 average finish. The driver of the No. 71 Chevrolet was Top 15 most recently in Nashville, but that's been an outlier to his typical performance on these ovals this season. Keep McDowell benched this week and save his starts for the short tracks in the latter half of this year.