The 68th running of the Daytona 500 is just days away on February 15th, 2026, and if history tells us anything, a significant chunk of the 37 guaranteed starters won't see the checkered flag. Superspeedway racing is beautiful chaos — 200 mph pack drafting where one wrong move can collect half the field in a blink. So we set out to answer a simple question: based on what we know, which NASCAR drivers are most likely to crash or DNF at the 2026 Daytona 500?

Meanwhile, The Daytona 500 odds are set for the 68th running of the Great American Race.

How We Predict Daytona 500 Crashes

To find out, we built a composite scoring model that goes beyond just looking at raw crash numbers. All historical NASCAR data was sourced from DriverAverages.com, a comprehensive database tracking driver performance metrics across all Cup Series races.

The system blends seven weighted factors using DriverAverages.com statistics: career Daytona DNF percentage (25%), recent Daytona form over the last six races (15%), overall DNF trend across the last 36 Cup races at all tracks (20%), a subjective aggressiveness rating (15%), a "chaos magnet" score measuring how often a driver finds trouble even when they didn't cause it (10%), equipment quality (10%), and an experience modifier that penalizes rookies and credits veterans (5%).

Career Daytona rates from DriverAverages.com are regressed toward the field average for drivers with small sample sizes, preventing outliers from skewing results. The result is a 0-100 composite score where higher means a greater likelihood of not finishing the race.

Who's Most Likely to Crash at the 2026 Daytona 500?

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - The Biggest Crash Risk

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. tops the board. The 2023 Daytona 500 winner carries the nickname "Wrecky" for good reason — he's DNF'd in four of his last six Daytona starts, rates a 9 out of 10 in aggressiveness, and his mid-pack speed combined with front-pack boldness makes him the most volatile driver in the field.

Carson Hocevar - Young and Risky

Right behind him is Carson Hocevar, who has failed to finish three of his four career Daytona Cup starts and racked up eight DNFs across his last 36 races overall. He's young, fearless, and constantly in the middle of incidents his Spire Motorsports equipment can't escape.

Daniel Suarez - Worst Daytona DNF Rate

Daniel Suarez holds the dubious distinction of owning the worst career Daytona DNF rate in the field at a staggering 64.7%. His nine DNFs in 36 overall races confirm the problem isn't limited to superspeedways — trouble simply follows him.

Other High-Risk Daytona 500 Drivers

Bubba Wallace and Josh Berry round out the top five, each posting nine DNFs across their last 36 races, a number that caught many off guard.

One of the model's more interesting findings involves Cody Ware. While his aggressiveness is low, his Rick Ware Racing equipment posted 11 DNFs in 36 races — the worst mechanical reliability in the entire field. Sometimes it's not about driving into a wreck; it's about the car quitting on you.

Safest Bets: Drivers Least Likely to DNF at Daytona 2026

Chris Buescher - The Daytona Survivor

On the other end, Chris Buescher emerges as the safest bet in the field. Zero DNFs in his last six Daytona starts, only two across his last 36 overall races, and an 8.3 average finish at Daytona recently. He's the definition of a stealth operator — invisible all day until he suddenly appears in the top five at the end.

John Hunter Nemechek - Perfect Daytona Record

John Hunter Nemechek has never DNF'd in six career Daytona Cup starts, a remarkable record at a track that chews through the best.

Kyle Larson - Improved Reliability

Kyle Larson, despite a rough 39% career Daytona rate, has dramatically improved with just two DNFs across his last 36 races and only one in his last six at Daytona.

Denny Hamlin - Daytona 500 Legend

Denny Hamlin, with three Daytona 500 victories and a 15% career DNF rate across 40 starts, remains the gold standard of plate race survival.

2026 Daytona 500 Wildcard: Connor Zilisch

Rookie Connor Zilisch enters with Chevrolet's best-in-class equipment but zero Cup superspeedway experience. The model penalizes him for the unknown, and his aggressive instincts from lower series could either pay off brilliantly or end his day early. He's the biggest question mark on the board.

Final Thoughts on Daytona 500 Crash Predictions

The beauty of the Daytona 500 is that none of this is guaranteed. The Big One doesn't check resumes. But if you're looking for an edge — or just want to know which cars to keep an eye on when the pack tightens up heading into Turn 1 — the data has plenty to say.