NASCAR DFS Picks and Best Bets: Toyota/Save Mart 350

The top DFS picks and betting insights for the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway, including why C.J. Radune loves Kyle Larson's odds to win at a track he has had a lot of success at.
NASCAR DFS Picks and Best Bets: Toyota/Save Mart 350

Toyota/Save Mart 350

Location: Sonoma, Calif.
Course: Sonoma Raceway
Format: 1.99-mile road course
Laps: 110

NASCAR Cup Series Race Preview

Sonoma Raceway hosts the NASCAR Cup Series this week for the Toyota/Save Mart 350, giving the series its second road course race in as many weeks. Corey Heim arrives with momentum after pulling off a surprise first Cup victory at NASCAR's newest street course, where he raced teammate Tyler Reddick hard in the closing laps to take the win. That result gave 23XI Racing another reason to feel confident in the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series champion, especially after the team announced he will join its Cup lineup full time next season. This week should look much different, though. Sonoma is a familiar test for the Cup field, with the hills of northern California set to challenge the series for the 37th time. Shane van Gisbergen dominated last year's race, leading nearly every lap on his way to victory, and he will be looking to rebound after crashing out early at San Diego. It also adds some urgency to the weekend, since Sonoma is the final road course race of the 2026 season before the schedule turns back to ovals for the stretch run.

Key Stats at Sonoma Raceway

  • Number of races: 36
  • Winners from pole: 7
  • Winners from top-5 starters: 19
  • Winners from top-10 starters: 27
  • Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
  • Fastest race: 83.922 mph

Previous 10 Sonoma Winners

2025 - Shane van Gisbergen
2024 - Kyle Larson
2023 - Martin Truex Jr.
2022 - Daniel Suarez
2021 - Kyle Larson
2019 - Martin Truex Jr.
2018 - Martin Truex Jr.
2017 - Kevin Harvick
2016 - Tony Stewart
2015 - Kyle Busch

Sonoma Raceway is a purpose-built road course that winds through the hills of northern California's wine country, giving the Cup Series one of its most technical tests of the season. The track is narrow, loaded with off-camber corners and blind-apex turns, and does not offer many clean passing opportunities. That makes turns 7 and 11 especially important, since both braking zones create chances for aggressive drivers to use the bumper and force their way forward. Like most road courses, track position and pit strategy will be central to the outcome, but both depend on having speed from the start. Qualifying has been a strong indicator of potential success here, with no driver starting outside the top 15 and winning since 2008 with most winners coming from inside the top 10. Shane van Gisbergen showed exactly how powerful that combination can be last year, dominating from pole on his way to victory. After crashing out early at San Diego, he will return to Sonoma with every reason to put that disappointment behind him and chase another commanding road course win.

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DraftKings Value Picks for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Based on Standard $50k Salary Cap

DraftKings Tier 1 Values  

Shane van Gisbergen - $14,000
Tyler Reddick - $10,500
Kyle Larson -$9,500
Michael McDowell - $9,300

DraftKings Tier 2 Values  

Chase Briscoe - $8,900
Chris Buescher - $8,700
Ryan Blaney - $8,500
Chase Elliott - $8,000

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Daniel Suarez - $7,500
Carson Hocevar - $7,200
Denny Hamlin - $7,100
Ryan Preece - $7,000

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Bubba Wallace - $6,900
Joey Logano - $6,800
Riley Herbst - $6,400
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $5,500

Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Shane van Gisbergen - $14,000
Ryan Blaney - $8,500
Chase Elliott - $8,000
Denny Hamlin - $7,100
Joey Logano - $6,800
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $5,500

Last week's crash and DNF for Shane van Gisbergen (DK $14,000, FD $14,500) demonstrates why his super-high price makes him a risky play even on road courses. However, there is still no better driver to expect a win from. He dominated at Sonoma last season with 97 of 110 laps led, and he was on pole and fighting for the lead when the crash happened last week. Anything can happen in motorsport, but SVG is still the most likely to lead laps and win this race on Sunday.

Ryan Blaney (DK $8,500, FD $11,500) has not finished a race lower than 10th since the All-Star Race. That is five straight top-10 finishes for the Team Penske driver who now has 12 top-10s on the season. He has been the picture of consistency despite Ford still seemingly lacking the outright race pace that would put them on level terms with Toyota. Fantasy players can expect a similar level of production from him again this week at Sonoma where he has five top-10 finishes from nine starts.

Chase Elliott (DK $8,000, FD $8,200) owns one of the best average finishes at Sonoma, with a number of 10.2 across nine career starts despite never winning at the track. He finished inside the top five in four of the last five Sonoma races and is coming off a 12th-place finish last week at San Diego. While Elliott's road-course dominance has faded with the current generation of car, he continues to deliver strong results at Sonoma, and there is little reason to expect that to change this season given the recent improvement in the organization since the All-Star Race weekend.

While Denny Hamlin (DK $7,100, FD $6,000) may not be a road course specialist, the fact that he is in the championship hunt and trying to gobble up as many points possible make him a reliable choice for fantasy players when combined with some of the heavy hitters further up the price list. His recent Sonoma record has been poor with two DNFs and a best finish of 20th in the last four visits, but he did start on pole in 2023, leading 33 laps in that race, and had five top-10s in a row prior to the downturn. He was 14th a week ago at San Diego, and that would be more representative of what fantasy players should expect from him this week.

Joey Logano (DK $6,800, FD $6,200) continues to flirt with the cut line for The Chase, but he had a decent outing at San Diego with an 18th-place finish after starting 19th. Fantasy players would expect him to outperform that at Sonoma, too. He finished ninth in this race last season and started on pole the year before that. Logano has seven top-10s from 16 starts at this track, and he should be another veteran that can deliver a top-15 expectation with upside potential this week.

The above selections leave just enough salary for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DK $5,500, FD $3,800). Again, he is not a road course specialist, but he has finished better than where he started in the last four Sonoma races. In fact, despite finishing this race 33rd last season, he ran inside the top 10 to score stage points in both segments before falling backward. That could indicate that there is a much better finish potential lurking within the No. 47 camp this week.

Best Bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 PM ET Friday

Race Winner - Kyle Larson +1100
Top-Three Finish - Michael McDowell +450
Top-Five Finish - Chris Buescher +285
Winning Manufacturer - Toyota +450

With Shane van Gisbergen drawing negative odds, it makes sense to look for value elsewhere. Last week's race showed that anything can happen and that no driver is guaranteed a win. One driver who has been knocking on the door lately is Kyle Larson. Hendrick Motorsports has been closing the gap to the Toyotas in recent weeks, and Larson was out front for 11 laps at San Diego before finishing third. He is also a former Sonoma winner, so it would not be surprising to see him near the front again this week with a shot at the victory.

Michael McDowell has been great on the road courses this season. He finished 10th at San Diego, fifth at Circuit of the Americas, and was the runner-up finisher at Watkins Glen. At Sonoma, he finished seventh or better in the last four races and was third or better two of those times. Compared with other drivers' odds for top-three finishes, McDowell is offering a much better payout with a very real chance of him delivering on it.

Chris Buescher has also been a standout on the road courses in recent seasons. Just last week, he started 16th and finished sixth at San Diego. Three of his last four Sonoma starts also ended with top-five finishes. Again, this is another driver with a legitimate shot at delivering a top-five finish that is offering odds that are more lucrative than many other options.

Despite Chevrolet heading into last week's race as the favorite to win, Toyota kept their 2026 domination alive at the hands of Corey Heim. The manufacturer continues to have race pace that is better than the majority of the competition, and if this were any other circuit, wagerers would be getting significantly more stingy odds. This could be a good week to take the winningest 2026 manufacturer for odds you likely won't see once racing resumes on the ovals.

Mapping out your wagers for the Cup Series race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. C.J. Radune plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: cjradune, RaceDayScore: cjradune.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Radune covers NASCAR, Formula 1 and soccer for RotoWire. He was named the Racing Writer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association in 2012 and 2015.
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