Würth 400 Preview: Return to Mid-Size Ovals

With the crumpled cars and banged up egos of Talladega now in our rearview mirror this week the Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway for a return to intermediate ovals. This is potentially good news for championship contenders Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin. Both have wins already in this young season and both are looking to stay on a roll in Fort Worth. Considering that both Reddick and Hamlin have won at Texas since the 2019 season, either of the duo should have a slugger's chance of winning and capturing another victory this season. Chevrolet drivers have won four of the last five races at Texas Motor Speedway so control of this oval is directly in the middle of the bowtie camp.   

Another driver worth keeping an eye on this Sunday is Kyle Larson. He's yet to win this season despite having had a couple dominant performances to this point. The one-time Texas winner has been a major threat on intermediate ovals in recent seasons, and he is a strong performer on the Fort Worth oval. Another major threat for victory lane this Sunday afternoon comes in the form of Chase Briscoe and his No. 19 Toyota team. He has never won at Texas Motor Speedway but has recently been a top performer on the mid-sized ovals. Briscoe finished inside the Top 5 recently at Kansas and inside the Top 10 at Las Vegas and clearly has the intermediate ovals pegged. With Reddick, Hamlin, Briscoe and Larson squarely in the spotlight this week, it looks like Sunday's contest could be a big shootout between Chevrolet and Toyota.        

For the third straight season we're racing at Texas Motor Speedway in the spring. This track has had its dates shuffled around for a while and it's had an unsettled spot in the schedule for the last few seasons. There are some surprises to be expected due to this uncertainty. However, TMS is the same intermediate oval that NASCAR has competed on for 28 years. While Texas has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Atlanta, Las Vegas and Homestead there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons to those events. Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent numbers of the tri-oval at Fort Worth and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend. Here are the loop stats for the last 37 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

Joey Logano won this event one year ago. That was the last time the NASCAR Cup Series went points racing at Texas Motor Speedway. The Penske Racing star led just 7 laps but had the right strategy in the overtime finish to win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500. It was Logano's second-career victory at the Fort Worth oval and snapped a four-race win streak for Chevrolet at TMS. The No. 22 Ford team have yet to scratch the win column in 2026, so a trip to Fort Worth could be a major opportunity for this driver and team to find victory lane for the first time this season.

Kansas Speedway back in mid-April is our most recent look at the drivers on a similarly sized oval and maybe our best barometer of what to expect this weekend. The Toyotas were strong and captured the win as well as four of the Top-5 finishing spots. A lone Chevrolet driver (Kyle Larson) came in second-place. We could be in for a sequel to Kansas action in Sunday's Wurth 400. Tyler Reddick came out on top in that recent Kansas race, so we'll need to give him very close examination. Additionally, the Toyota of Denny Hamlin was strong and led 131 laps before finishing fourth-place. That's something to commit to memory before filling out your fantasy racing lineups for Texas. We'll take a look at the contenders for the win and the spoilers from the field that could jump up and surprise this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Thursday

Tyler Reddick (+550) – With his win here in 2022 and his runner-up finish at Fort Worth in 2020, it's clear that Reddick loves this oval. He's led a combined 149 laps at Texas Motor Speedway and that's a lot of time up front at this track. The 23XI Racing star now has a 57-percent Top-10 rate at this oval and strong 11.0 average finish. Reddick has been zeroed in on these mid-sized ovals so far in 2026. He won earlier this season at Atlanta (EchoPark Speedway) and won just a few weeks ago at Kansas Speedway. In many respects, Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team will be the outfit to beat this weekend in the Wurth 400.

Kyle Larson (+650) – Coming off strong runner-up finish at the similar sized oval in Kansas a few weeks ago, Larson is in good position to challenge for the win at Texas. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event in 2021 and he's led significant laps at Texas over his career here (615 laps). Larson also grabbed the victory in the 2021 All-Star Race at Texas to further illustrate his excellence at this facility. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet led 90 laps and finished fourth-place in this event one year ago. Larson has been strong in his last four intermediate oval starts with two runner-up finishes and over 250 laps led. He will be in the mix for the win Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway.

Denny Hamlin (+400) – The three-time Texas winner has proven over the years that this isn't his best intermediate oval, but he brings homerun potential to this track when the racing really matters. With over 300-career laps led and his last Texas victory as recently as 2019, we have to take Hamlin very serious in this race. The driver of the No. 11 00Toyota has two wins and one runner-up finish in his last five starts on tracks 1.5-mile in size. He was also dominant at Kansas recently leading 131 laps and finishing a strong fourth-place. Hamlin's 16 Texas Top 10's stands at a steady 46-percent rate and he's finished inside the Top 10 in two of his last four Texas Motor Speedway starts. Hamlin will be a serious threat to the Hendrick Chevrolets this weekend in Fort Worth. 

Chase Briscoe (+1600) – The longer shot of the contenders is also a driver to not be underestimated this weekend. Briscoe has never won or made a big splash at Texas Motor Speedway in his five prior starts. But he does have three Top 10's in those efforts and a strong 60-percent Top-10 rate at the track. The 12.6 average finish in Fort Worth is a respectable figure. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been as consistent as any in the last five intermediate oval events. Briscoe has fetched four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in those events along with 103 laps led. His most recent outing fetched a strong third-place finish at Kansas Speedway. We believe Briscoe could be the driver that most don't see coming this Sunday.         

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Chase Elliott (+1400) – Elliott won this event two years ago for his first-career Texas Motor Speedway victory. It was a bit of a surprising outcome but it underscored how good he is at this oval and his potential here. His seven Top-10 finishes at the 1.5-mile Fort Worth track equals a respectable 47-percent Top-10 rate and his 12.5 average finish at this facility is a pretty sharp number. The Hendrick Motorsports star has been pretty sharp in recent intermediate oval events, so we've ranked him in the solid plays list this week. This is not one of Elliott's best intermediate ovals, but he can hold his own here. With the No. 9 team on the upswing, a Top-10 finish seems very likely.

Christopher Bell (+900) – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been an up-and-down performer on the mid-sized ovals of late, but he should be on the high side of the ledger in Fort Worth. Bell has seven-career Cup Series starts at Texas Motor Speedway, and he's captured four Top-10 finishes in those efforts for a 57-percent Top-10 rate and respectable 13.0 average finish. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota raced to a steady ninth-place finish in this event one year ago and he was a pole winner and fourth-place finisher at the similar sized oval in Las Vegas earlier this season. Given the current momentum of this driver and team and Bell's track specific success at Fort Worth, we believe he's a solid fantasy racing play this weekend.   

William Byron (+1100) – Byron had a good string of races until his crash and DNF at Talladega this past week. He'll look to rebound at Fort Worth this Sunday afternoon. His visit to Texas three seasons ago netted his first-career victory at Texas Motor Speedway and his Top-10 rate at the oval now stands at a strong 55-percent. Byron is standing tall of late in intermediate oval races. He has third- and seventh-place finishes this season at both Las Vegas and Kansas. Those are good signs for Byron and the No. 24 team coming to Texas this Sunday. He should be a strong bet for a Top-10 finish in the Wurth 400.  

Ty Gibbs (+2000) – Despite his bad luck at Talladega this past week, Gibbs had another strong race car that could lead laps and battle up front. That's been the theme all season for him and the No. 54 Toyota team. Now we come to an intermediate oval and another opportunity to shine. Gibbs has fifth- and ninth-place finishes at the similar sized Las Vegas and Kansas ovals this season and those are good indicators of potential at Texas. The young driver has four-career Cup Series starts at TMS but just one Top 15 in those efforts. Gibbs qualifies well at the Fort Worth track with a 7.0 average start position. He should collect his first-career Texas Top 10 in Sunday's 400-mile battle.

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Texas & Solid Upside

Bubba Wallace (+1800) – Wallace has been a consistent performer on the 1.5-mile ovals this season. With finishes of eighth-, ninth- and fifth-place at Atlanta, Las Vegas and Kansas, you can't argue with that track record. The 23XI Racing veteran has had his share of recent success at Texas Motor Speedway. Wallace won the pole here in 2023 and he's lead 116 laps in his last three starts in Fort Worth. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has grabbed two Top 10's in those three efforts and he's qualified well at Texas. Wallace sports 6.7 average start position over his last three Texas Motor Speedway starts. That good qualifying has equated to good finishes for this driver and team.

Brad Keselowski (+1800) – He's never won in 30 starts at Texas Motor Speedway but he's illustrated some good consistency here that has only improved as he's gotten older. Keselowski's 14 Top-10 finishes at TMS work out to a decent 47-percent rate, but more recently he's been sharper than that. The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has Top 10's in six of his last seven starts in Fort Worth. That coincides nicely with his recent performance on mid-sized ovals. Keselowski has fetched Top-10 finishes in four of his last five (80-percent) of his starts on 1.5-mile ovals. Everything is lining up for Keselowski to crack the Top 10 in Sunday's Wurth 400.

Chris Buescher (+2000) – After a runner-up finish at Talladega, Buescher rides that momentum into Forth Worth this week. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has never grabbed a Top 10 at the Texas oval in 16 starts. That may push away some daily fantasy and weekly fantasy players from selecting him this week, but we believe that would be an error. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has been strong in his last two intermediate oval starts with sixth- and 10th-place finishes at Las Vegas and Kansas. The 8.0 average finish over that brief span is a solid statistic. Buescher has also qualified well of late on these sized ovals and that's a major key to success with the difficulty in passing on these tracks. He'll challenge for his first Texas Top 10 on Sunday afternoon. 

Ryan Preece (+6000) – Preece has two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last four starts on mid-sized ovals. That works out to a strong 10.0 average finish for the No. 60 Ford team. This recent level of performance underscores his consistency and underpins our confidence in him at Texas.  Preece has never been a big performer at Texas Motor Speedway but his respectable 12th-place finish in this event two years ago was a career-best Texas finish for him and good illustration of his ability at this track. Preece and the No. 60 Ford team are running well right now and should be in the midst of the Top 10 after 400 miles at Texas Motor Speedway.

Carson Hocevar (+1100) – Coming off his big first-career victory at Talladega last Sunday, Hocevar is going to have a big curtain call at Texas. While getting back to victory lane this week will be much more difficult and unlikely, he should still be a fantasy focus driver this week. Spire Motorsports continues to improve and continues to give this gifted young driver better cars. To this point the majority of Hocevar's success has been on superspeedways and short tracks. Intermediate ovals are going to be more difficult to crack. He recently qualified well, led 6 laps and finished a respectable 13th-place at Kansas Speedway. That's a hopeful sign of things to come from this driver and team and good forecast for Texas.   

Daniel Suarez (+5500) – Some drivers have an unshakeable affinity for certain tracks, and that would be the case with Suarez and Texas Motor Speedway. The veteran driver has six-career Top-10 finishes at the Fort Worth oval (46-percent) and Saurez rides a three-race Texas Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. That has lowered his career average finish here to a respectable 14.7. He's been a Top-20 finisher thus far this season on the intermediate ovals, but we believe he'll have a much higher ceiling than that at Texas Motor Speedway. Suarez is a driver to roll in the lower driver tiers of fantasy games this week.

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Ryan Blaney (+1000) – Blaney has reasonably good Texas statistics to his credit. The Penske Racing star has nine Top-10 finishes here (53-percent) and a 16.5-career average finish at the Fort Worth oval. However, he has finished outside the Top 25 twice in his last three starts at Texas Motor Speedway and that has put a drag on his career numbers here. Additionally, Blaney has struggled in recent intermediate oval events. He has just one Top-10 in his last five 1.5-mile oval starts and a 22.4 average finish over that span. Blaney was a 24th-place finisher at Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago, and that's something to be aware of coming to Texas.

Kyle Busch (+6500) – The Richard Childress Racing star leads all active drivers with four-career victories at Texas Motor Speedway and a sound 54-percent career Top-10 rate at the track but has struggled on cookie cutter ovals of late. With just one Top-10 finish in the last five 1.5-mile oval events for a 20-percent Top-10 rate, his performance has been shaky in this style of racing. Busch's last outing at a similar oval netted a disappointing 35th-place finish at Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has struggled in three of his last four starts at Texas motor Speedway despite his 54-percent career Top-10 rate at the track. The No. 8 Chevrolet team is simply too great a risk to deploy Sunday at Texas.

Joey Logano (+1400) – The Penske Racing star is in much the same boat as his teammate, Ryan Blaney. Logano is a two-time Texas winner and he cracks the Top 10 here at a strong 53-percent rate. Intermediate ovals have been pretty shaky for the No. 22 Ford team of late. Logano has just one Top 10 in his last five mid-sized oval starts (20-percent) and an 18.0 average finish across that span. The veteran driver was a disappointing 30th-place finisher in his most recent intermediate oval outing at Kansas Speedway a few weeks ago. For whatever reason, the Team Penske drivers are really struggling to find any speed or consistency in this style of racing right now.

Alex Bowman (+3500) – Bowman shook a pretty serious monkey off his back with his Top-5 finish at Talladega this past Sunday. It was his first Top 10 of the campaign in what has been an injury and poor performance affected season for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. Bowman has had his struggles on the mid-sized tracks with just one Top 10 in his last four starts on these size tracks. He also has had a career full of struggles at Texas Motor Speedway. Bowman has just two Top 10's in 16-career starts at the Fort Worth track for a 13-percent Top-10 rate and 25.4 average finish. He hasn't posted a Top 10 here since the 2020 season.