Jack Link's 500 Preview: Superspeedway Battle

Talladega Superspeedway is up next in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. The enormous tri-oval in Talladega, Alabama is the largest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, measuring an amazing 2.66 miles in length, and stunning 33 degree banking in the turns. The track's size and banking make it a wide-open, four-wide, heart-pounding racing experience where speeds are high and margin for error is small. This will be a big departure from the recent short tracks and intermediate ovals we've raced on, and with it a change of faces at the top of our driver recommendations.    

This weekends, action will be similar to what we witnessed in the season-opening Daytona 500 were heavy packs that would eventually spread out into double lines or multiple packs over long green-flag runs. With the ability to race to the back or the front very quickly, moving through traffic presented little problem. The whopping 65 lead changes during the Great American Race were way up and the highest total we've seen at the Daytona oval since 2011. The Daytona 500 also saw the return of the multi-car crashes. There were four caution periods due to accidents involving multiple cars, with two of the incidents being particularly large with many cars involved. With the return of the "big one" or "big ones" we may see some form of return to the sandbagging at the back. Despite the stage racing point system, some drivers might feel better about staying out of the wrecks and being around at the end to contend for the win. The nine cars that DNF'd in the season-opener will make some drivers think twice about spending too much time in the eye of the storm.

The art of superspeedway racing hasn't changed despite all the rules and car changes over the past few seasons. Once again, winning on these superspeedways has been reduced to the lowest common denominator, which is when to make your move and who to do it with. As we saw in February, Tyler Reddick's late charge to the front and holding off several competitors during the last-lap battle to the finish, it's all about timing often times in these superspeedway races. We expect to see a similar racing style prevail at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, but hopefully without some of the nasty crashes we witnessed in the season-opening Daytona 500. 

Speaking of the race earlier this season at Daytona, we can rely on those results to some extent in looking at the Jack Link's 500 this weekend. The cars that were strong at Daytona in February will likely be the same to run up front on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway. You can only put so much faith in historical stats and strong cars. At the end of the day, the driver that keeps all the doors and tires on his car and finishes the race is as good as gold. As far as historical data is concerned, we have every race since 2005 of Talladega electronic scoring to rely on for our fantasy racing picks this week. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 42 races at Talladega Superspeedway.

What used to be a solid Chevrolet track has been tilted in another direction in recent races. The bowtie brand had swept three in-a-row at Talladega between spring of 2022 and spring of 2023 until that season's YellaWood 500. Ryan Blaney would march to victory in that race and put Ford back in winner's circle here for the first time since 2020. That would be Blaney's third-career win at the Alabama speedway. Over the past five races at Talladega Superspeedway, it has been an affair of parity. Each of the three manufacturers have won and introduced a degree of uncertainty for this race. Last October, it would be Chase Briscoe winning the YellaWood 500 in a major upset and taking Toyota back to Talladega victory lane for the second time in the last four races at the Alabama oval. The veteran driver would rise to power late in that race and overcome a handful of contenders in overtime to grab the victory. It was Briscoe's first-career victory at Talladega and very possibly not his last.  

Given what we saw in the Daytona 500 earlier this season, possible Toyota dominance will be on the minds of everyone this weekend. Tyler Reddick would nab the win for Toyota and 23XI Racing. Ford and Chevrolet drivers would fill out most of the Top 10 that day. Despite Bubba Wallace, John Hunter Nemechek and Chase Briscoe leading a combined 82 laps in that event for Toyota, all three would be held out of victory lane. Ford's best hopes likely ride with Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski this weekend. The trio have been that brand's best performing drivers on superspeedway tracks the last couple seasons. Talladega races always hold plenty of thrills as well as surprises. We'll take an in-depth look at past history at Talladega and recent trends on superspeedway ovals and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues this Sunday afternoon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9:30 AM ET Wednesday

Tyler Reddick (+1200) – In just about two season's time, Reddick has gone from zero to hero in terms of superspeedway racing. He's grabbed two victories (Talladega and Daytona) and one runner-up finish (Daytona) as well as grabbed four Top 10's. That has catapulted him to driver of primary focus coming into this weekend's Jack Link's 500. He won this season's Daytona 500 in convincing fashion and Reddick won the "quasi-superspeedway" race at Atlanta in February. Right now, the No. 45 Toyota team have the pace in these big oval events. Reddick finished a strong seventh-place in his last Talladega start last October. He's measuring up to be the driver to beat Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.  

William Byron (+1100) – The three-time Daytona winner has seen his superspeedway supremacy pushed aside by Tyler Reddick, but Byron is still a major threat to win on Sunday. Byron has finished runner-up at Talladega Superspeedway twice and he had a five-race Talladega Top-10 streak halted here last October due to some bad luck. This recent heater has boosted his Top-10 rate to 44-percent at the oval and lowered Byron's average finish to a sharp 14.4. The Hendrick Motorsports star is looking to get back the form he had on these big ovals in 2024 and 2025. It's just a matter of time before he wins at Talladega.  

Ryan Blaney (+1000) – The three-time Talladega winner is also a two-time runner-up finisher at the Alabama speedway. Blaney won at this oval back-to-back in the fall of 2019 and spring of 2020. He's now led nearly 300 laps in his career at this huge facility. More recently, Blaney won and finished runner-up twice in a three-race Talladega span between 2022 and 2023. Blaney has been more wreckers than checkers in his most recent superspeedway exploits, however, he did forge a strong Top 10 at Atlanta earlier this season. Blaney will be one of the top contenders to win in Sunday's 500-mile Talladega battle.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2500) – The two-time Talladega winner picked up the second of his two wins at the track in last October 2024's YellaWood 500. Stenhouse also finished a dazzling fourth-place in the spring event at Talladega that season. Those efforts ended what was about a three-season dry spell at the Alabama oval and revived some success he's had at the track earlier in his career. Stenhouse has also had some success at the similar oval in Daytona where he's a two-time victor as well, including the 2023 Daytona 500 crown. The veteran HYAK Motorsports driver understands the ins-and-outs of superspeedway racing and despite some lower Top-10 percentages and average finishes on these tracks. He finished runner-up in this season's Daytona 500.

Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win

Brad Keselowski (+1600) – The six-time Talladega winner has a real expertise at superspeedway racing and seemingly a real knack for this oval in particular. Keselowski's victory and runner-up finish at this facility in 2021 illustrate his capability of pack racing at Talladega. He also picked up a pair of runner-up finishes at Talladega in 2024 and lowered his career average finish to a spotless 15.5 and increased his Top-10 rate to a strong 50-percent at this huge oval. Keselowski's 331-career laps led at Talladega Superspeedway speak volumes. He loves this Alabama track and is always a threat to win here. The driver of the No. 6 Ford finished fifth in the season-opening Daytona 500 and 10th in last October's YellaWood 500.

Chase Briscoe (+1600) – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota was a surprise pole winner in last season's  Daytona 500 and he's put his car on the outside pole in his last two superspeedway events. That good starting track position would pay off last October as Briscoe would march to his first-career Talladega victory in the YellaWood 500. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver would lead 23 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500 before becoming caught up in a multi-car crash. The speed to win is there for this driver and team. Briscoe proved that with his recent runner-up finish at the very fast Atlanta Motor Speedway. He may not have the best career-long stats at Talladega (30-percent Top-10 rate) but what he's doing right now on these big ovals is powerful.   

Chase Elliott (+1400) – Elliott is racing as well as any of the Chevrolet drivers to this point in the season. He has one win and five Top 10's through the first nine events. As he demonstrated in the Daytona 500, Elliott knows how to stay out of trouble in this high-risk races and he brought it home in fourth-place in the season-opener. The Hendrick Motorsports star is a two-time Talladega winner and his fifth-place finish in this event one year ago gives him a decent 45-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega Superspeedway. Elliott and the No. 9 Chevrolet team were also fast at Atlanta earlier this season, leading 11 laps and claiming a steady 11th-place finish. He'll be a Top-10 threat Sunday in the Jack Link's 500.            

Ty Gibbs (+3000) – Gibbs comes to Alabama as one of the hottest drivers in the series right now and certainly the hottest of the Joe Gibbs Racing stable. The young driver grabbed his first-career win at Bristol a couple weeks ago and is looking for more trophies to add to his collection. Gibbs has seven-career starts at Talladega Superspeedway and with little to show for to this point. However, he did grab 32 laps led in this event one year ago and he returned last fall to the huge oval and registered a strong third-place finish in the YellaWood 500. Gibbs has not been a big superspeedway performer to this point in his career but this breakout season trajectory that he's on has him squarely in our sights for Talladega.    

Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Talladega & Solid Upside

Joey Logano (+1000) – Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega Superspeedway, with all three victories coming since the 2015 season. He's led over 550 combined laps at this speedway for his career, making Talladega his favorite of the two superspeedway tracks.  His last few trips to the huge oval have yielded great speed, great qualifying and lots of laps led, however, the finishes have not followed for the No. 22 Ford team. We're sliding Logano into the sleepers list this week for that very reason. Logano will have speed and the ability to challenge the Top 5. He halted a long superspeedway dry spell with his third-place in this season's Daytona 500.   

Bubba Wallace (+1600) – The 2021 Talladega winner has always had a knack for superspeedway racing. Although his performances at Daytona have tended to be better than his Talladega efforts. Still, the speed that the No. 23 Toyota team showed to start this season in the Daytona 500 is difficult to ignore. Wallace led a race-high 40 laps and finished a steady 10th-place in the Daytona 500. That's been emblematic of his past couple seasons on superspeedway ovals. Wallace rides a three-race Talladega Top-10 streak into Sunday's action. He knows how to get to the front in these races and critically, when to make his move. 

Kyle Larson (+1400) – The Hendrick Motorsports star has never been a big-time performer at the Talladega oval. With just five Top-10 finishes in 22-career starts the 23-percent Top-10 rate will discourage most players from deploying Larson in the Jack Link's 500. However, the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has realized most of his superspeedway success in just the most recent seasons of racing. Larson has grabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes in just his last three Talladega starts. This season he's been fast to this point, leading 7 laps in the Daytona 500 and a whopping 48 laps at the fast oval in Atlanta. Larson is a bit of a lottery ticket to be sure but brings a lot of upside with him.

Chris Buescher (+2000) – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran grabbed a Top 10 in the season-opening Daytona 500 and Buescher finished seventh-place in the summer Daytona race last season. Current trends show that he has the speed to challenge the Top 10 at Talladega this weekend. He is prone to have the occasional disappearing act on these big ovals but possesses the ability to grab Top-10 finishes when everything works out. That makes Buescher a good deep-tier driver consideration this Sunday. He hast just three-career Talladega Top-10 finishes, but all have come since the 2020 season. Just another piece of evidence demonstrating how this veteran driver has improved very recently in this style of racing.

Carson Hocevar (+2500) – The young driver is off to a great start this season and seems to bring value to just about every track the Cup Series competes on weekly. Hocevar has a pair of sixth-place finishes and three-straight Top 15's in his last three Talladega appearances. That has boosted his Top-10 rate here to 40-percent and lowered his average finish at  the track to 15.6. Hocevar had speed in the Daytona 500 but some late-race mistakes would slide him down the finishing order. Although, the driver of the No. 77 Chevrolet would rally the next week and finish a strong fourth-place at the high-speed Atlanta oval. We believe Hocevar brings deep tier value to Sunday's battle at Talladega Superspeedway.       

Christopher Bell (+1800) – Bell has demonstrated good speed in these big oval events since the new generation car was launched. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has won two pole positions at Talladega since 2022. He's also grabbed a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last three starts at the Alabama oval. Bell has had a bit of uneven luck in his last five superspeedway starts, so we're sliding him into the sleepers list this week due to his upside only. The Joe Gibbs Racing star led 9 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500 before getting rolled up in a late-race crash. He'll be on the rebound path Sunday in the Jack Link's 500.     

Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week

Kyle Busch (+2200) – At best Busch has had uneven luck with superspeedway racing over the years. With two wins, and 24-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega, he's shown he can get to victory lane, but he can also struggle to consistently find the Top 10. Over the past two seasons, success has been lean on the superspeedway ovals for the No. 8 Chevrolet team. Busch has just one Top 10 in his last nine starts between Daytona and Talladega (11-percent) and his 20.9 average finish during that span is less than reassuring. The veteran Richard Childress Racing driver qualified on the pole for the Daytona 500 and led 19 laps but he would still find trouble and finish 15th-place in the season-opener. We believe Busch is a driver to pan this weekend in the Jack Link's 500.  

Austin Cindric (+1600) – The 2025 Talladega winner has shown some skill on superspeedway ovals during his career. However, it's been a tough stretch the last two seasons despite his victory in this event one year ago. Cindric has just three Top 10's in his last nine starts between Daytona and Talladega (33-percent) and despite leading 69 laps over that span, he's finished outside the Top 20 in four of his last six superspeedway starts. That has inflated his average finish on these ovals to 18.9 over this most recent stretch. Despite qualifying well at Talladega last October, he would get involved in an early-race crash and finish a distant 34th in the YellaWood 500. Cindric and his team are probably a safer bet on the fantasy bench this week.

Denny Hamlin (+2200) – Hamlin is one of the better Toyota drivers when it comes to superspeedway racing, and he certainly has the resume to back that up. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at this facility and he's sat on the pole here four times since the 2020 season. With a Top-10 percentage near 43-percent at Talladega Superspeedway, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota is above average on cracking the Top 10 here. However, Hamlin has fallen on hard times of late in superspeedway racing. He doesn't at all look like the driver with multiple Daytona 500 wins and multiple wins at Talladega. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has just one Top 10 in his last nine superspeedway starts and a disappointing 25.4 average finish during this span.     

Ryan Preece (+3500) – Preece has had a lot of superspeedway struggles over the years. His spectacular Daytona crashes are almost legendary at this point. Unfortunately, his luck at Talladega has been almost as lean. With just three Top 10's in 12-career starts, Preece checks in at a lowly 25-percent Top-10 rate at this oval. His 19.7 average finish is higher than we would like to see in any fantasy worthy driver. Preece has no Top 10's in his last nine superspeedway starts and that includes his 25th-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500. The veteran driver is a much better fantasy asset on short tracks and some intermediate ovals. Superspeedway racing has just never been his top game.