Sports Illustrated Resorts 250
Location: Lebanon, Tenn.
Course: Nashville Superspeedway
Format: 1.33-mile D-shaped oval
Laps: 188
NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Race Preview
Weather wreaked havoc throughout the weekend and affected the entire NASCAR schedule. The O'Reilly Series was no exception, with only 91 laps run out of an originally scheduled 200. Of those 91 laps, 54 were run under caution. That disappointment capped off a somber weekend for the sport, as tributes and memories of Kyle Busch continue to pour in.
Nevertheless, Ross Chastain took home the win. Of the O'Reilly Series drivers it was fittingly a good weekend for the RCR drivers, with Jesse Love collecting 49 points and Austin Hill 42. Corey Day also kept up his strong recent form tally 45 points. On the flip side, Sheldon Creed, Sam Mayer and Taylor Gray all had tough weekends, causing them to each slip two spots in the standings. Creed has little to worry about in terms of qualifying for the playoffs, but both Mayer and Gray are now both firmly on the bubble of the playoffs with nine regular-season races remaining.
Key Stats at Nashville Superspeedway
- Number of races: 26
- Winners from pole: 3
- Winners from top-five starters: 14
- Winners from top-10 starters: 20
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
Recent Nashville Winners w/ Starting Position
2025 - Justin Allgaier (4)
2024 – John Hunter Nemechek (15)
2023 - AJ Allmendinger (11)
2022 - Justin Allgaier (5)
2021 - Kyle Busch (1)
Nashville Superspeedway doesn't immediately stand out as a unique track, but it's 1.33- mile length and concrete surface make it stand out from other tracks. The speedway has also had an interesting history in NASCAR. While the O'Reilly Series has a more extensive history than Cup overall, there was a nine-year gap in races spanning from 2012 to 2020 during which the Series did not go to Nashville. The importance of track position is still somewhat unclear, as three of the five winners qualified inside the top five. The other two winners started 11th and 15th. Historically, qualifying has been important, so I'd lean that direction for DFS or betting picks.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Tennessee Lottery 250
Based on a Standard $50K Salary Cap
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $15,500
Justin Allgaier - $12,500
Corey Day - $10,500
Jesse Love- $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Sam Mayer - $9,500
Sheldon Creed- $9,000
Austin Hill - $8,500
Carson Kvapil- $8,200
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
William Sawalich - $8,000
Ryan Sieg- $7,400
Harrison Burton- $7,200
Jeb Burton - $7,000
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Jeremy Clements - $6,800
Dean Thompson - $6,700
Anthony Alfredo - $6,400
Brennan Poole- $6,100
Optimal DraftKings Lineup for the Sports Illustrated Resorts 250
Corey Day - $10,500
Sam Mayer - $9,500
Austin Hill - $8,500
William Sawalich - $8,000
Jeb Burton- $7,000
Anthony Alfredo - $6,400
Perhaps it's the minimal recent track history, or perhaps it's the unique track characteristics, but there aren't particularly obvious ways to build at either extreme of the price range this week. Larson would be the obvious choice, but rostering him would allow for an average of only $6,900 per driver slot. While doable, that's a high-risk build. Allgaier is the other fairly obvious choice to potentially build through, and he is a good option.
However, the strength of this week's driver pool looks to be in the upper middle tiers. Mayer has been on a roller coaster of a season, but he's generally been in good form lately and has three top-five finishes in four races at Nashville in the O'Reilly Series. Hill hasn't quite matched that record, but has two top-five finishes and has finished inside the top 10 in all five of his races at Nashville. That duo may not have the highest upside, but they provide a solid foundation to build from.
Sawalich and Day also offer some of the upside that may be lacking from Hill and Mayer. Sawalich took pole at Nashville last season and led the first 37 laps before pit cycles began. His race was derailed by a mistake that caused damage to his car, but he's been fast the last few weeks and he should remain quick this weekend. Speaking of fast, Day has been on fire for much of the season, and has finished inside the top five in three of his last five races – including two wins.
Typically, one or two cheap options stand out above the rest. Burton could pass as one of those options this week, as he's generally run inside the top 15 at the track. The Tier 4 options aren't inspiring this week, but Alfredo checks in as the best value option on the optimizer so he's the choice for the optimal lineup. Poole has narrowly been the best of the group all summer, and his price makes him a reasonable choice as well.
NASCAR O'Reilly Series Best Bets for the Sports Illustrated Resorts 250
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner – Kyle Larson (+150), Justin Allgaier (+400), Corey Day (+800), William Sawalich (+2000)
Head-to-Head Matchups
Brent Crews (-125) vs. Corey Day (-105)
Taylor Gray (-120) vs. William Sawalich (-110)
Austin Hill (-115) vs. Brandon Jones (-115)
Larson is hardly at a great price to win the race, but he is rightfully the favorite. We've discussed the other potential race winners listed above in depth, with Day and Sawalich both checking in at decent values.
Crews, Gray and Jones are all marquee names that haven't been discussed much, if at all. Crews has had swings in performance, which isn't a big surprise given that he's 18 and in his rookie season. However, he's not typically the profile of driver I want to invest in for a head-to-head matchup.
Gray has been in a deep slump since his win at Kansas. He's finished better than 29th in five races since, and that came at Watkins Glen. Finally, Jones has been solid but unspectacular at Nashville, but Hill has performed at a pretty clear-cut level above him.
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