This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Nashville Superspeedway after debuting at the track five seasons ago. This oval is a moderately-banked 1.33-mile track that is concrete paved and features 14 degree banking in the turns. The event is 300 laps, divided into three stages of 90 laps, 95 laps and 115 laps. Average speeds will be near 160 mph as the concrete surface provides high grip and a lot of potential for side-by-side racing. The oval is somewhat reminiscent of the lower banked intermediate ovals on the circuit like Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway, although modestly smaller in size than most NASCAR intermediate ovals and concrete paved. From its opening in 2001 Nashville Superspeedway hosted Xfinity Series and Camping World Truck Series events until the track's closure in 2011. The facility had not been a part of the NASCAR schedule for close to a decade until five years ago and NASCAR's successful return.
Since this is just the sixth race at a relatively new track, we have very limited data to examine. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated this season on the intermediate ovals, as well as the loop data from the last five Nashville Superspeedway races. It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on these style tracks. This loop data will be fresh but bear in mind that the sample size is very small. In
This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to Nashville Superspeedway after debuting at the track five seasons ago. This oval is a moderately-banked 1.33-mile track that is concrete paved and features 14 degree banking in the turns. The event is 300 laps, divided into three stages of 90 laps, 95 laps and 115 laps. Average speeds will be near 160 mph as the concrete surface provides high grip and a lot of potential for side-by-side racing. The oval is somewhat reminiscent of the lower banked intermediate ovals on the circuit like Kansas Speedway and Las Vegas Motor Speedway, although modestly smaller in size than most NASCAR intermediate ovals and concrete paved. From its opening in 2001 Nashville Superspeedway hosted Xfinity Series and Camping World Truck Series events until the track's closure in 2011. The facility had not been a part of the NASCAR schedule for close to a decade until five years ago and NASCAR's successful return.
Since this is just the sixth race at a relatively new track, we have very limited data to examine. For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated this season on the intermediate ovals, as well as the loop data from the last five Nashville Superspeedway races. It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on these style tracks. This loop data will be fresh but bear in mind that the sample size is very small. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from the last four races at Nashville Superspeedway.
| Driver | Avg. Finish | Quality Passes | # of Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Laps in Top 15 | Driver Rating |
| Denny Hamlin | 9.2 | 242 | 172 | 344 | 1,438 | 117.4 |
| Kyle Larson | 5.2 | 198 | 175 | 264 | 1,223 | 106.6 |
| Ross Chastain | 10.4 | 251 | 75 | 148 | 1,241 | 105.5 |
| Chase Elliott | 10.2 | 219 | 41 | 56 | 1,286 | 98.5 |
| Christopher Bell | 14.0 | 215 | 66 | 134 | 1,160 | 97.8 |
| Joey Logano | 8.6 | 223 | 15 | 23 | 1,169 | 91.3 |
| William Byron | 13.6 | 189 | 34 | 6 | 1,062 | 90.5 |
| Tyler Reddick | 15.8 | 202 | 69 | 56 | 904 | 87.5 |
| Ryan Blaney | 16.8 | 165 | 93 | 166 | 897 | 86.1 |
| Carson Hocevar | 9.0 | 95 | 10 | 0 | 336 | 80.7 |
| Ty Gibbs | 22.7 | 180 | 29 | 2 | 630 | 80.4 |
| Bubba Wallace | 12.2 | 170 | 11 | 0 | 660 | 77.8 |
| Chris Buescher | 20.8 | 184 | 9 | 0 | 883 | 73.7 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 15.0 | 136 | 8 | 1 | 514 | 70.5 |
| Erik Jones | 16.0 | 131 | 6 | 0 | 598 | 70.3 |
| Daniel Suarez | 14.4 | 158 | 11 | 1 | 621 | 69.6 |
| Brad Keselowski | 22.4 | 136 | 15 | 5 | 679 | 69.0 |
| Austin Cindric | 16.8 | 62 | 18 | 2 | 339 | 68.9 |
| Zane Smith | 7.5 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 171 | 66.4 |
| Josh Berry | 28.0 | 83 | 3 | 0 | 283 | 63.5 |
Coming into this weekend's 400-mile event we're going to rely a lot on current hot streaks and we're going to look with a critical eye at recent performance on intermediate ovals. We believe the statistical table above will be some help in determining drivers to target this week. However, we have to realize the small sample size of five races and one of those being in the old generation stock car.
In last season's race at Nashville Superspeedway, we witnessed Ryan Blaney dominate and lead a race-high 139 laps en route to the victory. Denny Hamlin would be his biggest challenger, leading 79 laps but fading back to third-place by the checkered flag. Carson Hocevar would be a surprising second-place that afternoon in Nashville and that performance would be the genesis of that young driver's current surge in competitiveness. The win by Blaney gave Ford their second-straight victory at Nashville Superspeedway and wrestled control of this track away from Chevrolet. We believe a potential power shift could be stirring for this weekend and we could see Toyota sweep into victory lane here for the first time. Although they've gone winless in the first fiver Nashville Speedway events, Toyota drivers have been strong on intermediate ovals of late. It could be time that we see a Toyota driver finally cash in for the win at this race track. We should be in for more of that uncertainty Sunday in the Cracker Barrel 400. In the outline below, we'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games at Nashville Superspeedway.
The Contenders – Drivers in the Hunt for the Win
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Thursday
Denny Hamlin (+450) – Hamlin has been a strong performer on the mid-sized ovals this season. He has a win to his credit at Las Vegas and four Top-5 finishes in his last five starts on these size tracks. The Joe Gibbs Racing star was a strong performer at Charlotte Motor Speedway and led several laps en route to a third-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600. While Hamlin has never won at Nashville Superspeedway, he has come very close in his five prior attempts. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has led a series-high 344 laps at Nashville and claimed a pair of Top 5's and three Top 10's in those efforts. Hamlin was foiled by Ryan Blaney last season, but it could likely be a very different story this weekend.
Tyler Reddick (+700) – The championship standings leader has been a top performer on the intermediate tracks this season. Reddick has two victories (Atlanta and Kansas) and four Top-5 finishes on this mid-sized ovals in 2026. The average finish works out to a razor sharp 4.6 for this driver and team on the cookie cutter ovals. Reddick is fresh off 119 laps led and a fourth-place finish at Charlotte this past Sunday. While he hasn't had near the success at Nashville as some other drivers, Reddick has been improving here. He's collected third- and ninth-place finishes at Nashville Superspeedway in his last two starts. Reddick has qualified well in his last three attempts here and has a 4.0 average start over that span. He'll be a top contender to win Sunday's Cracker Barrel 400.
Kyle Larson (+750) – The Hendrick Motorsports star won the inaugural Nashville event five years ago in a dominant performance. Larson led 264 of the 300 laps and pounded the field into the pavement to win by more than 4-seconds over Ross Chastain. Larson has that one victory and three Top 5's in his five prior starts at Nashville Superspeedway for a series-best 5.2 average finish here. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has been great on intermediate ovals already this season with three Top 10's and most recently a strong fifth-place at Charlotte this past Sunday. Larson has shown the ability to dominate at this oval and he has been a strong performer on the cookie cutter tracks this season. He'll be a top contender to win Sunday in Nashville.
Christopher Bell (+700) – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster narrowly missed winning this event two seasons ago. Bell would lead 131 laps, nearly half the race, and looked poised to win but would crash out late in the Ally 400. He's been good on the cookie cutter ovals this season with a pair of Top-5 finishes, including a runner-up performance at Charlotte this past weekend. Had that race not ended early due to rain, Bell could have very well won the Coca-Cola 600. With four Top 10's in five starts at Nashville Superspeedway, this driver and team are consistent performers here. It's just a matter of time before Bell wins at this facility and it could happen as soon as this weekend for the talented Toyota driver.
Solid Plays – Near Locks for Top 10 with an Outside Shot to Win
William Byron (+1200) – Byron has been consistent on cookie cutter ovals this season and has four Top 10's (80-percent) on the 1.5-mile tracks and 11.0 average finish. The Hendrick Motorsports star just turned in a steady ninth-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600 this past Sunday night. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has three Top 10's in his five prior starts at Nashville Superspeedway for a strong 60-percent rate and steady 13.6 average finish. Byron qualified third- and finished fifth-place in this event one year ago. The notes from that outing will come in very handy for this driver and team in Sunday's Nashville battle.
Ryan Blaney (+750) – His recent intermediate oval outings have been improved over earlier-season efforts. Blaney finished 10th-place at Texas a few weeks ago and seventh-place this past Sunday at Charlotte. The Penske Racing star has a victory (last season) and three Top 10's in his last four efforts at Nashville Superspeedway. That fact has to fill this driver with confidence heading into the Cracker Barrell 400. Blaney has been up-and-down on the cookie cutter ovals this season but has shown glimpses of brilliance. The Penske Racing star is one of Ford's best shots at victory lane this weekend, and he shouldn't be overlooked going into this 400-mile battle.
Chase Briscoe (+1200) – Briscoe has not been a top performer at Nashville Superspeedway. However, he did capture the pole position here last year and lead 51 laps before he would fade back to a 17th-place finish. It was his first effort at the oval with Joe Gibbs Racing and a sign of potential and things to come for him at this track. Briscoe has been a strong performer on these mid-sized ovals in 2026. He's grabbed two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on the intermediate ovals this season. Briscoe qualified fifth- at Charlotte this past week and led 34 laps, however, he would crash late in that race and not get the finish he deserved. Briscoe will be rebound minded in Sunday's Cracker Barrel 400.
Ross Chastain (+1800) – The mid-sized tracks have been a real puzzle for the No. 1 team and Chastain this season. The veteran Trackhouse Racing driver has only nabbed one Top 10 on these tracks this year. However, Nashville Superspeedway with it unique configuration and concrete surface has really been a sweet spot for Chastain. He has one win (2023) and one runner-up finish as well as three Top 5's at this facility. The 10.4 average finish at Nashville and 148 laps led speak volumes of his ability here. In this event one year ago, Chastain qualified fifth- on the starting grid and finished 11th-place in last season's Cracker Barrel 400.
Sleepers – Drivers with Good History at Nashville & Solid Upside
Ty Gibbs (+1800) – Gibbs started on the outside pole, led 17 laps and finished sixth-place at Charlotte this past weekend. That's indicative of how this driver and team have fared on the mid-sized ovals this season. Gibbs has three Top 10's in five starts on these size tracks and that's good for a solid 60-percent Top-10 rate. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has had a tough time in his three prior starts at Nashville Superspeedway, so some fantasy players may opt to pan him this weekend. We believe that would be a mistake. Given how he's performed this season, especially on the cookie cutter tracks, we believe Gibbs is Top-10 bound Sunday in Nashville.
Chase Elliott (+1200) – It's really been a mixed bag for Elliott at this race track since NASCAR's Cup Series started competing in Nashville. The Hendrick Motorsports star has a victory (2022) and two Top-5 finishes. However, he's been prone to disappear here as well which has led to his 15.4 average finish at Nashville Superspeedway. We believe this weekend will be an uptick occasion for Elliott at this track. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been really good on the mid-sized ovals in 2026. Elliott has earned one win (Texas), two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on these size tracks. The 11.8 average finish speaks for itself. While he had a tough weekend last Sunday at Charlotte, we believe Elliott will rebound in the Cracker Barrel 400.
Joey Logano (+1600) – Logano won this event two years ago with timely decisions and good racing in overtime to capture the victory. It's a trademark trait that the No. 22 Ford team has become known for over the past couple seasons. The Penske Racing star has been somewhat inconsistent on the intermediate ovals this season but his strong eighth-place finish at Charlotte this past Sunday signals better races ahead. Now Logano can set his sights on the 1.33-mile Nashville track and look for another strong performance. He has qualified extremely well at Nashville Superspeedway with an average start of 8.8 across his five attempts. Logano has nabbed four Top-10 finishes in those efforts and it works out to a strong 8.6 average finish. We expect Logano to be a Top-10 threat this weekend.
Daniel Suarez (+5000) – Last week's surprise winner makes the sleepers list this week at Nashville Superspeedway. Suarez out-maneuvered the field with his two-tire pit stop late last week and gambled on mother nature to do the rest, and it worked. The rain out short of full distance would see Suarez win. He's actually been very consistent this year on the mid-sized ovals with the one win, three Top-10 finishes and sound 9.8 average finish. Given those stats, it's little surprise he won at Charlotte last week. Suarez hasn't been bad at Nashville, just not overly impressive. His one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes here work out to a steady 14.4 average finish. The Spire Motorsports driver was 16th-place in this event one year ago. We're betting he'll grab his second-career Top 10 at Nashville this Sunday afternoon.
Bubba Wallace (+3000) – Aside from his subpar finish at Charlotte this past week, Wallace has been one of the more consistent performers on the cookie cutter ovals this season. He's claimed four Top 10's in the five events to-date for a sound 10.6 average finish. Wallace is coming off fifth- and ninth-place finishes most recently at Kansas and Texas. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has mixed results in his five Nashville Superspeedway starts. However, he earned his best finish in this event one year ago. He raced his 23XI Racing Toyota to a strong sixth-place finish for his second consecutive Top 10 at Nashville Superspeedway. We expect another Top-10 finish for this driver and team this weekend.
Zane Smith (+9000) – The deep sleeper of the field this week will be Smith and his No. 38 Ford team. He is squarely on our fantasy radar after picking up an impressive 10th-place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway this past Sunday. The Front Row Motorsports driver has been a surprising performer on the cookie cutter ovals this season with two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes to this point. Smith has also been a strong performer in his two prior Cup Series starts at Nashville Superspeedway. He earned a brilliant runner-up finish two seasons ago after starting 36th on the grid, and he drove to a sound 13th-place finish in this event one year ago. Don't sleep on Smith and the No. 38 team in the deeper tiers in the Cracker Barrel 400.
Slow Down - Drivers to Avoid This Week
Michael McDowell (+13000) – This season's intermediate oval schedule has been tough on McDowell and his No. 71 Spire Motorsports team. The veteran driver has just one Top-15 finish in five starts and an inflated 24.2 average finish on these size tracks. Apart from that, McDowell has also struggled in his five prior starts at Nashville Superspeedway. He has just one Top-15 finish vs. two finishes outside the Top 25. McDowell finished 21st-place in this event one year ago, and that's not far off his career average at the Nashville oval of 22.6. The chips appear stacked against this driver and team in Sunday's Cracker Barrel 400.
Josh Berry (+6500) – Despite qualifying on the outside pole here two seasons ago, Berry's two Nashville Superspeedway starts have been forgettable experiences. The Wood Brothers Racing driver finished 26th-place after a crash two years ago, and he returned to Nashville last year to finish 30th-place in that Cracker Barrel 400. Of the full-time teams in the Cup Series, Berry has likely had the most difficult time on the intermediate ovals this season. He has no Top-20 finishes and five finishes outside the Top 25 on these size ovals. Berry and team are coming off a disappointing 29th-place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway this past Sunday.
Austin Cindric (+6500) – Cindric has four-career starts at Nashville Superspeedway and they are mixed results at best with two Top-15 finishes and a 16.8 average finish. Normally, that wouldn't be so terrible and we would be "neutral" on the fantasy prospects for a driver like this at Nashville. However, Cindric has somewhat struggled this season on the intermediate tracks. The Penske Racing driver has two crashes and DNF's including this past weekend at Charlotte and he has two Top-15 finishes in five starts. Just a real mixed bag of unpredictability for Cindric. The 22.0 average finish over that five-race span of intermediate tracks is higher than what we like to see.
Alex Bowman (+6500) – Bowman is another driver who's yet to make his mark on Nashville Superspeedway. In five prior starts he has just two Top-15 finishes and two finishes outside the Top 30. He finished a disappointing 36th-place in this event one year ago. The 23.4 average finish at the Nashville oval is a discouraging statistic for sure. As for Bowman's recent exploits on the mid-sized tracks, he has just one Top 10 in four starts and a pedestrian 15.3 average finish this season. Bowman and the No. 48 team were an uninspiring 17th-place this past Sunday at Charlotte Motor Speedway. We believe they are a driver and team to pan for the Cracker Barrel 400.
