Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC Vegas 116
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 116 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC Vegas 116 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 115-37-2
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Montague
Fanduel Captain: Montague/Sterling
Aljamain Sterling (25-5-0) v. Youssef Zalal (18-5-1)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 25-5 (3 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- High-level grappler with elite control and ability to dictate where fights take place
- Proven against top competition with experience in championship-level fights
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 18-5-1 (4 KO/TKO, 10 submissions)
- Well-rounded with strong grappling and improving striking
- Has looked sharp in his return with a more complete game
DFS Perspective:
Sterling is the dog here, and I'm not sure why. Zalal's resurgence has been impressive, but Sterling has fought the best of the best and has a clear edge in experience. If he's able to lean on his grappling and control, he can dictate this fight. I like Sterling's chances to get this done, and he profiles as a strong underdog play.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Sterling
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Norma Dumont (13-2-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (17-6-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-2 (2 submissions)
- Strong, physical fighter who uses wrestling and control to win rounds
- Most effective when she can dictate pace and keep opponents grounded
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-6 (7 KO/TKO, 5 submission)
- Striker with length and volume who prefers to keep fights at range
- Can be controlled by stronger opponents in grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective:
This fight will likely be competitive at times, but Dumont's wrestling and strength should carry her to a win. If she's able to control positions, she can edge rounds consistently. That said, this fight likely yields a low DFS score with limited upside.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Dumont
Rafa Garcia (18-4-0) v. Alexander Hernandez (18-8-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-4 (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with strong takedowns and control
- Most effective when he can dictate the fight on the mat
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-8 (8 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive striker with power and solid volume
- Dangerous early and capable of creating big moments on the feet
DFS Perspective:
This should be a fun fight with both guys bringing volume and power. The key will be whether Garcia can find success with takedowns. If he's able to get this to the mat, he can control and rack up points. If not, Hernandez could have success on the feet. The winner of this fight should score well, making it a strong DFS target.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Garcia
Davey Grant (15-8-0) v. Adrian Luna Martinetti (17-1-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-8 (4 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Veteran with a gritty style who thrives in scrappy, high-action fights
- Durable and willing to engage, but can be overwhelmed by faster starters
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-1 (4 KO/TKO, 6 submission)
- Explosive and aggressive with strong finishing instincts
- Looked impressive on the Contender Series with ability to overwhelm early
DFS Perspective:
I like Martinetti quite a bit in this matchup. His Contender Series performance showed how dangerous he can be early, and I'm not sure Grant will be able to weather that storm. If Martinetti comes out aggressive and lands clean, this could end quickly. Martinetti profiles as a strong play with early finish upside.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Martinetti
Montel Jackson (15-3-0) v. Raoni Barcelos (21-5-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 15-3 (8 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Long, athletic fighter with power and the ability to mix in grappling
- Uses pressure and physicality to wear opponents down
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 21-5 (8 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Well-rounded veteran with strong grappling and improving striking
- Has shown a resurgence recently with more consistent performances
DFS Perspective:
Barcelos has looked better over his last few fights and has a real shot here, but I expect Jackson's pressure and physicality to be the difference. If Jackson pushes pace and mixes in his offense, he can start to overwhelm Barcelos both on the feet and in grappling exchanges. Jackson profiles as the preferred side with upside.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Jackson
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Marcus Buchecha (5-2-1) v. Ryan Spann (23-11-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 5-2-1 (1 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Elite grappler with world-class submission ability
- Most dangerous when he can get fights to the mat and control
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 23-11 (6 KO/TKO, 14 submissions)
- Dangerous finisher with power and submission ability
- Can be opportunistic but has shown inconsistency
DFS Perspective:
This is a volatile fight with clear paths on both sides. Buchecha wants this on the mat, where he has a massive grappling edge, while Spann is very live to finish if it stays standing. If Buchecha secures takedowns, he can dominate quickly. Spann profiles as the preferred side with strong knockout upside, but there is risk if he cannot get it to the ground.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Spann
Rodolfo Vieira (11-4-0) v. Eric McConico (10-4-1)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-4 (1 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Elite BJJ specialist with one of the best submission games in the division
- Most dangerous when he can secure takedowns and control on the mat
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-4-1 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Striker with power who prefers to keep fights standing
- Can be vulnerable if forced into grappling exchanges
DFS Perspective:
Vieira's path is very clear here: get this to the mat and hunt a submission. If he secures early takedowns, this could end quickly. McConico will want to keep it standing, but if he can't, he's in serious trouble. Vieira profiles as a strong play with early submission upside.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Vieira
Jackson McVey (6-2-0) v. Sedriques Dumas (10-4-0)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 6-2 (3 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Physical striker with power and the ability to finish fights
- Most effective when he can push pace and create exchanges
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-4 (4 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Athletic with power, but inconsistent performances
- Has shown lapses in fights and can be difficult to trust
DFS Perspective:
Dumas is a tough fighter to trust in any matchup, and this is no different. McVey should be able to capitalize if Dumas has another lapse and create the better moments throughout the fight. McVey profiles as the preferred side with upside in a volatile matchup.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: McVey
Mayra Bueno Silva (10-6-1) v. Michelle Montague (7-0-0)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-6-1 (1 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Grappling specialist with a strong submission game
- Recent form has been poor with multiple losses and declining performances
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-0 (6 submissions)
- Well-rounded with solid striking and finishing ability
- Trending in the right direction with confidence and momentum
DFS Perspective:
Silva has not looked like the same fighter recently, and it's hard to trust her in this spot. Montague could have a field day if she keeps this fight where she wants it and capitalizes on Silva's struggles. Silva still has submission danger, but Montague profiles as the preferred side with upside.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Montague
Jafel Filho (17-4-0) v. Cody Durden (17-10-1)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 17-4 (5 KO/TKO, 11 submissions)
- High-level submission specialist with aggressive grappling
- Most dangerous early when he can hunt submissions and force scrambles
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-10-1 (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Gritty wrestler who likes to push pace and grind fights out
- Has shown vulnerability to submissions against strong grapplers
DFS Perspective:
Durden has struggled against strong grapplers and is susceptible to submissions, which makes this a tough matchup. Filho should come out aggressive and look to get this to the mat early. If he's able to create scrambles, there's a strong chance he finds a submission. Filho profiles as a strong play with early finish upside.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Filho
Francis Marshall (9-3-0) v. Lucas Brennan (11-2-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-3 (1 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Strong striker with power and the ability to control fights on the feet
- Most effective when he can keep fights standing and dictate range
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 11-2 (2 KO/TKO, 8 submissions)
- Grappling specialist with dangerous submission ability
- Always a threat on the mat with ability to capitalize in scrambles
DFS Perspective:
Marshall is the clear play here given Brennan's lack of striking. If he's able to keep this fight standing, he should be able to control and outstrike Brennan. That said, Brennan is very dangerous on the mat and a submission is in play at all times. It would not be a bad idea to have shares of both fighters in a matchup with clear paths on each side.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Marshall
Max Griffin (20-12-0) v. Victor Valenzuela (13-4-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 20-12 (9 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Veteran striker with solid power and experience
- Relies on toughness and volume to win rounds
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 13-4 (7 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Aggressive fighter with power and finishing ability
- Looks to push pace and create exchanges early
DFS Perspective:
This should be a competitive fight with both guys willing to engage. Griffin brings experience and durability, while Valenzuela has the edge in youth and finishing upside. Look for this to turn into a high-action fight, giving both sides some DFS appeal. My slight lean is to Valenzuela in a competitive matchup.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Valenzuela
Talita Alencar (7-1-1) v. Julia Polastri (14-5-0)
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 58" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 7-1-1 (4 submissions)
- High-level grappler with strong control and positional dominance
- Most effective when she can secure takedowns and dictate the fight on the mat
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 64" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-5 (5 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Striker with a slight edge on the feet and solid overall fundamentals
- Prefers to keep fights standing and work at range
DFS Perspective:
This fight could go either way. Polastri should have the edge on the feet, while Alencar has a clear advantage on the mat. It likely comes down to whether Alencar can secure takedowns and control positions. If she does, she can dictate the fight. Balanced matchup with paths on both sides.
UFC Vegas 116 Pick: Alencar
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
