UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 116 - Sterling vs. Zalal
The UFC returns to the Apex for some closely lined bouts and intriguing underdog opportunities. We'll take a look at each fight across three platforms, including a veteran looking to induce pain, and a strawweight who never takes her foot off the gas. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Marcus Almeida ($8,300)
It's difficult to think of a UFC veteran who looks as uncomfortable as Ryan Spann in a fight. "Superman" hasn't won outside the first round since 2020, as he tends to fall apart when things are not going his way. While he'll be the better striker here, "Buchecha" has shown himself to be incredibly tough, and I can't trust Spann to keep it together if his initial attack doesn't lead directly to a finish. The Brazilian is considered BJJ royalty, meaning Spann won't be able to control the bout with wrestling.
Aljamain Sterling ($7,800)
It has been so long since Sterling faced a fighter who will diligently stick and get back to space that I am slightly worried that Youssef Zalal will control this fight with his jab. However, we are in the Apex, and that means a small cage for "The Funkmaster" to close down his opponent and force grappling sequences. Zalal is no slouch on the mat, but I don't expect him to be able to hang with Sterling, who has notched 17 takedowns in his last three fights.
Michelle Montague ($9,300)
Montague is an absolute bully in the cage, as she marches forward attempting to grab a hold of opponents and take them to the mat. Once there, she features ferocious ground-and-pound and has won six of her seven professional MMA bouts by submission. Mayra Bueno Silva has looked so listless during her four-fight losing streak that there is no other pick to make, but Montague is young in her career and fights like she cannot be hurt, which resulted in her getting rocked several times in her win over Luana Carolina. Those who are mass entering GPPs may want to have a share or two of "Cheetara," as walking into range with her chin up in the air seems like a recipe to leave Montague with a surprising loss at some point.
Raoni Barcelos ($7,600)
As a 5-foot-10 bantamweight, Montel Jackson wins most of his bouts with presence and physicality. As he has risen in the ranks, however, fighters have begun to bring the fight to him, resulting in a tightly contested win over Daniel Marcos and a loss to Deiveson Figueiredo. I expect Barcelos to do something similar, using speed, leg kicks, and wrestling to stymie the offense of "Quik." Jackson will likely have the most trouble in defensive grappling situations, as he frequently gives up his back to try to stand up. This would be a major blunder against a jiu-jitsu player as skilled as Barcelos. The Brazilian should be able to withstand any hard shots thrown his way, as a flash knockout at the hands of Umar Nurmagomedov remains his only such loss in 26 professional fights.
Francis Marshall ($9,400)
Marshall has struggled against better athletes, but he won't have to worry about being behind the eight ball against newcomer Lucas Brennan, who tends to stand flatfooted and throw boxing combinations. This will leave him open to takedowns, and I expect Marshall to score with his right hand at a rate higher than usual.
Jackson McVey ($8,700)
McVay doesn't have a lot of skills that will win fights at this level, but being big, physical, and a willing grappler should be enough against Sedriques Dumas, who hasn't shown a coherent plan of attack since his wrestle-heavy performance against Denis Tiuliulin in 2024. Dumas seems to back himself into the cage as soon as the fight starts, which will give McVay a clear path to the fight he wants.
Norma Dumont ($8,800)
Dumont's physicality should take away the offensive wrestling of Joselyne Edwards, which has been her most important tool during her current win streak. We saw in her fight with Irene Aldana that Dumont is also comfortable circling out and fighting off the back foot, which means she should control this fight in every range.
Rodolfo Vieira ($9.100)
Eric McConico tends to yield ground in the cage, which has led to the 35-year-old being taken down five times in his last two fights. Vieira should get back to his wrestling here after he decided to have a kickboxing match against Bo Nickal with disastrous results. McConico is aggressive and powerful enough to hurt the Brazilian, but this will be academic once the fight gets to the floor.
Max Griffin ($7,600)
Victor Valenzuela is a solid kickboxer, but he can get predictable leading with his left hook, which can be timed for a hard counter shot or takedown attempt. Griffin can throw hard, straight punches, and carries a reach advantage of five inches. He should also have a grappling edge as the physically stronger fighter.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC Predictions to Consider on DraftKings Pick6
Jafel Filho UNDER 19.5 Significant Strikes and Davey Grant UNDER 67.5 Significant Strikes
To the extent that Filho strikes at all, it is because an opponent forces him to. This won't be an issue against Cody Durden, who welcomes grappling and scrambling exchanges. "Custom Made" may have enough guile to avoid getting submitted, but I expect him to be fighting for his life in bottom position more often than not.
Grant and newcomer Adrian Luna Martinetti are going to brawl for large portions of this fight, and "Dangerous" hits much harder than the undersized Mark Vologdin, who went to war with Martinetti on the Contender Series. Martinetti will likely attempt to wrestle when things get dicey, which should help to keep totals low here.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like DraftKings Pick6? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Julia Polastri Wins via KO/TKO (+350)
We don't often see strawweights who look for knockouts, but Polastri fits the bill, as she nearly finished Lupita Godinez in the last round of their fight before dominating and knocking out Karolina Kowalkiewicz in November. Look for "Psycho" to get started a bit earlier here, as Talita Alencar doesn't have much to offer offensively outside of body lock takedown attempts. Notably, Polastri was brought to the ground five times in her fight with Godinez, but Alencar's takedown accuracy stands at just 26 percent, and Godinez is a good enough boxer to vary her tactics.
Alexander Hernandez Wins via KO/TKO (+360)
Rafa Garcia has never been knocked out standing, but I couldn't watch a noticeably slower and less powerful Jared Gordon hurt the Brazilian with strikes and come to any other conclusion here. "The Great" excels at pulling his opponents into powerful strikes, and Garcia should walk himself into punches repeatedly until the fight-altering blow lands.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 116. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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