UFC Predictions: Preview, Picks & Props for UFC Vegas 115 - Moicano vs. Duncan
The UFC is back with an Apex fight card. We will take a look at every bout across three platforms, including an underdog welcoming a UFC veteran back to the cage, and a debutante who looks to be finding his knockout power. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Predictions to Consider on DraftKings
Kai Kamaka ($8,700)
Kamaka gets a winnable fight in his return to the UFC, as newcomer Dakota Hope likes to plant his feet and swing big in the pocket. This should allow Kamaka to control the range with his speed and agility, while hitting reactive takedowns when they present themselves.
Melissa Gatto ($7,700)
I expect Gatto to win this on activity and volume, as she will tirelessly try to create wrestling scenarios. Dione Barbosa can grapple as well, but she is too content to throw singular power shots. Ring rust could be a factor for Gatto, who has not fought in over two years. However, the style matchup here is too good for me to pass on the dog price.
Hailey Cowan ($7,800)
I couldn't help but wonder if I was missing something when Alice Pereira was lined as a favorite in her UFC debut, as the Brazilian seemed far too raw to contend with a veteran of the organization. She gets a more favorable matchup here, but I didn't see anything in that debut loss that makes me think the Brazilian is ready for this level, and Cowan is aggressive and big for the weight class.
Darrius Flowers ($7,300)
We don't often write up this many underdogs, but I have no idea what to expect from Lando Vannata, who has not fought in three years while dealing with various injuries. Unlike Gatto, Vanatta's entire game is movement-based, which has resulted in him absorbing nearly five significant strikes per minute. Flowers has primarily struggled with grapplers during his UFC run, but Lando will likely engage in a striking match with a fighter who has notched eight of his 12 wins via knockout.
Azamat Bekoev ($9,500)
Tresean Gore did well to stuff 13 of the 14 takedown attempts of Rodolfo Vieira, but all of that defending completely took him out of the fight, as he landed just 41 significant strikes and was outlanded at a 2:1 clip. Even if Bekoev can't get takedowns here, he hits far harder than Vieira, and should be able to control this fight from the opening bell.
Tabatha Ricci ($8,300)
It's been quite a while since I've picked against Virna Jandiroba, but I'm not sure how she wins a fight where she can't get her wrestling going, and Ricci has beaten high-level grapplers like Gillian Robertson and Jessica Penne throughout her career. Ricci has never been taken down more than once in 10 UFC bouts, making it difficult to see Jandiroba's path to victory.
Ethyn Ewing ($8,600)
Ewing put on a show in his short-notice debut against Malcolm Wellmaker, controlling the fight in all aspects. Against Rafael Estevam, he will need to withstand a wrestling attack that is seemingly without end, as the Brazilian landed 11 takedowns in his win over Jesus Aguilar. Ewing was able to turn clinch situations against Wellmaker into Judo throws, which gives me confidence that he has strong enough hips to thwart the majority of Estevam's attempts. However, the prospect of repeat takedowns will make Estevam highly owed across the board.
Chris Duncan ($8,800)
While I won't go as far as saying Duncan can hang with Renato Moicano on the ground, we have seen "The Problem" be very tricky in bottom position. If he can create opportunities to get back to his feet, Duncan should be far too much for Moicano, a wooden striker who has always been available to be hit.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
UFC predictions to Consider on PrizePicks
Brendson Ribeiro OVER 7.5 Significant Strikes, and Tommy McMillen OVER 26.5 Significant Strikes
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev made laughably quick work of Raffael Cerqueira in his UFC debut, blitzing the "The Lion" in just 33 seconds. In Ribeiro, he gets a 26-fight veteran with seven submission victories, which I regard as evidence that he will not simply be run over on the ground. The finish may happen early here, but at some point, Yakhayev has to meet a fighter he can't treat like someone in a backyard fighting organization.
You wouldn't know it from looking at his record, but McMillen isn't the kind of fighter who forces the finish. Instead, he will take the center of the cage and pick his shots. The fact that this has led to quick finishes in the past may be an indicator of opponent strength more than anything else. Expect Manolo Zecchini to hang around on the outside, which should help the debutante pile up the strikes.
Interested in backing these or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool
UFC Bets to Consider
Guilherme Pat Wins via KO/TKO (+195)
Pat seems to have cleaned up his issues with takedown defense that were present on the regional scene, as Allen Frye was unable to even get to his legs in the clinch, resulting in zero official attempts. While Thomas Petersen is a better wrestler, he is also much slower than Frye, which should allow Pat to use his athleticism and find the finish.
Jose Delano Wins by KO/TKO (+310)
The juice on this line seems to be based on the fact that Delano has just four finishes by strikes in 16 wins, but "Ze" is clearly finding his power, as two of those knockouts have come in his last four wins. Robert Ruchala will look to clinch up with Delano, but the 29-year-old showed an excellent ability to sprawl on the regional scene and should keep this fight standing until he finds a finish.
Alessandro Costa Wins via KO/TKO (+200)
Costa has earned the reputation of a kill-or-be-killed fighter, as he has two knockout wins and two knockout losses among his five UFC appearances. I expect him to be on the right side of this one, as Stewart Nicoll looks to tie up with such immediacy that it can almost be called panic wrestling. The 31-year-old is not particularly strong for the weight class, so I expect his opponent to shuck off his takedown attempts before landing the fight-altering blow.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC Vegas 115. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section
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