This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC's final event of 2023 is a stacked UFC 296 pay-per-view card from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, Dec. 16. The main event features Leon Edwards taking on Colby Covington for the welterweight title.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Flyweight
Alexandre Pantoja (26-5) vs. Brandon Royval (15-6)
In the co-main event of UFC 296, the flyweight title is up for grabs, and I'm backing Alexandre Pantoja to retain his belt in a rematch against Royval.
Pantoja and Royval fought back in August of 2021, and it was Pantoja winning by second-round submission. Although Royval has looked better since that fight, so too has Pantoja, who was fantastic against Brandon Moreno.
Pantoja is more active on the feet and is more technical than Royval, who is there to be hit, as he has a wild style. Meanwhile, on the ground, we have seen the Brazilian have the advantage, which adds to my confidence level here.
Personally, I had Pantoja lined at -225, so to get him under -200 makes it a play for me.
UFC 296 Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja (-192)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Cody Durden (16-4-1) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (14-2)
For my underdog, I'm backing Cody Durden to get his hand raised and upset Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC 296.
Durden is on a four-fight winning streak and coming off a big win over Jake Hadley as an underdog. Since changing camps to American Top Team, Durden has looked much better, and stylistically, this is a good matchup for the American.
Ulanbekov was outworked by Tim Elliott two fights ago, as Elliott was able to get him down and control him on the ground. Durden, meanwhile, fights similarly to Elliott, and he should be able to outwrestle Ulanbekov. As long as he avoids the submission, he should be able to grind out a decision win.
UFC 296 Best Bet: Cody Durden (+142)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Shavkat Rakhmonov (17-0) vs. Stephen Thompson (17-6-1)
Shavkat Rakhmonov is a massive -650 favorite, but there is a way to get him plus-money.
Rakhmonov is a great striker, but against Stephen Thompson, he will likely turn to his wrestling, as that is his easiest path to victory. Rakhmonov is also a finisher, and if he does grapple (as I expect), taking him to win by submission at plus money is the way to go.
Rakhmonov has won four of his five UFC wins by submission and submitted Geoff Neal last time out, who was also considered durable as Thompson is. If Rakhmonov grapples early and often, I'll take my chances he can sink in a choke and get the submission win.
UFC 296 Best Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission (+125)
Weight Classes: Light heavyweight & welterweight
Dustin Jacoby (19-7-1) vs Alonzo Menifield (14-3-1)
Ian Garry (13-0) vs Vicente Luque (22-9-1)
For my parlay at UFC 296, I'm backing Dustin Jacoby and Ian Garry to get their hands raised Saturday night.
Jacoby has been solid since returning to the UFC. Although Alonzo Menifield is on a four-fight unbeaten streak, the level of competition has not been the best, and his cardio is still a problem. On the feet, Jacoby is a technical striker and much more active than Menifield. I like Jacoby to just land the better shots and possibly even mix in the odd takedown to win a decision.
In the other leg, I'm backing Garry to remain undefeated against Vicente Luque. If Luque is going to win this fight, he will need to wrestle. The Irishman has solid grappling skills, however, and on the feet, he's the much more technical striker.
Luque is also there to be hit, as the Brazilian absorbs 5.15 significant strikes per minute while Garry lands 6.67. The volume will be the difference, as Garry will be able to edge out a decision.
UFC 296 Best Bet: Dustin Jacoby & Ian Garry parlay (-132)
UFC 296 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC 296 best bets:
- Alexandre Pantoja (-192)
- Cody Durden (+142)
- Shavkat Rakhmonov by submission (+125)
- Dustin Jacoby & Ian Garry parlay (-132)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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