This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Saturday's 14-fight slate is chock full of new arrivals, which will be to the benefit of those patient enough to track down tape from the regional scene. We'll cover every fight across five platforms, including a slow-paced knockout artist and an underdog who has pushed divisional contenders to their limit. Our betting line was taken from William Hill online sportsbook and is accurate as of the post date of this article.
Without further ado, let's get to it.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Movsar Evloev ($9,400)
A 47 percent takedown accuracy rate may not be anything to write home about, but Evloev makes up for his inefficiency with pure relentlessness. The 28-year-old has shot 30 times in his last three fights and is averaging a shade over five completed takedowns per fight in the organization. Dan Ige is a competent boxer who can overwhelm opponents with volume, but getting taken down and controlled for over 10 minutes in a five-round bout with another striker in Chan Sung Jung doesn't inspire confidence that he will be able to stay upright for very long.
Benoit Saint-Denis ($8,500)
Saint-Denis' toughness was his worst enemy in his UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, but the French fighter showed promising signs before getting punched around the Octagon, staying in the face of his opponent and constantly looking for takedowns. The aggression and pace that he keeps should be enough to beat Niklas Stolze, who seems to get hit hard by every strike thrown in his direction. While Stoltze could have a few early moments due to his agility and speed, I don't expect him to be able to deal with the pressure someone like Saint-Denis can bring for 15 minutes.
Tony Gravely ($8,400)
Having suffered five of his seven losses by submission, there was a real fear that Gravely would have trouble wrestling Saimon Oliveira, who has secured 11 of his 18 victories by submission. While there were a few tense moments, the 30-year-old fended off all four submission attempts en route to notching 11 takedowns and 11 minutes and 28 seconds of control time. He will have to deal with another grappling ace in Johnny Munoz, who will throw kicks in an attempt to close the distance, but showed himself to be a poor offensive wrestler in his bout with Nate Maness. Gravely will need to keep himself safe in top position once again, but it's worth noting that the majority of Munoz's submission victories have not come off of his back.
Erin Blanchfield ($9,600)
The price may seem prohibitive, but Blanchfield has been worth every penny in her UFC career, notching a combined 341 DraftKings points in two fights with the promotion. JJ Aldrich has found success as a combination puncher, but we've seen her struggle against opponents who can impose themselves physically. Because Aldrich doesn't have the power to change the course of a bout with one strike, Blanchfield should see plenty of opportunities to work past boxing range and get the fight to the ground.
Damon Jackson ($9,500)
Jackson is one of two fighters in the promotion to be nicknamed "The Leech," but the moniker fits him far better than Li Jingliang, as he has amassed eight takedowns and over 15 minutes of control time in his last two fights. He should get all he can handle from newcomer Daniel Argueta, who comes out like a house on fire when the bell rings, swinging wildly in the pocket and looking for takedowns. The issue for "The Determined" will likely be the ability of Jackson to scramble and control positions on the ground, as Argueta will often throw himself into tough spots while he frantically tries to get the upper hand on opponents. This could lead to rinse-and-repeat takedowns or a quick submission due to the debutant's lack of awareness on the mat.
Plays to Consider on Super Draft
Alex da Silva – 2.2X Multiplier
The last time we saw da Silva, he was using his grappling to take a round from a surging Brad Riddell before succumbing to the power and pressure striking of the fighter from New Zealand. Long layoff aside, I'm unsure why the athletic Brazilian fighter is such a large underdog against Joe Solecki, who began to struggle against Jared Gordon when it became clear he could not easily out-grapple him. Da Silva is a strong BJJ player, which should amount to "Leko" keeping this fight standing and using his considerable advantages on the feet.
Alonzo Menifield – 1.9 X Multiplier
As a humble fight analyst, I would never write something that could be construed as libelous. Instead, I will simply link this Sherdog article that purports to show Askar Mozharov (or his representation) going to great lengths to wipe losses from his record, and let folks decide for themselves what is true. What I can say for sure is that Mozharov's game is incredibly rough around the edges for a man with 30 professional MMA bouts. While he has shown off an explosive double-leg takedown, his lack of defense on the ground has led to submission losses while in his opponent's guard. A typical fight for "No Mercy" lasts less than two minutes and ends when he lands one or two big strikes that result in a finish. He is obviously very powerful, but the way he has finished opponents with almost no resistance whatsoever makes me think of the infamous Dmitrii Smoliakov, who looked like a killer on regional tape only to go 0-3 in two listless stints with the UFC. All this is to say that the pick has to be Menifield, as he is athletic, can throw in combination, and has been tested by opponents who don't fall down and cover up after being hit with two leg kicks.
Andreas Michailidis- 2.35 X Multiplier
Rinat Fakhretdinov received his contract after knocking out UFC veteran Eric Spicely, but the Russian fighter's striking technique is extremely sloppy, often amounting to little more than lunging into the pocket to land one big shot. While he has seen much more success as a wrestler and grappler, Fakhretdinov is another fighter who would do well to take his time on the ground, as he frequently loses position while looking to land big shots from the top. Michailidis hasn't gotten off to a great start with the organization but features a powerful, fast kicking game and sharp counter punching. It's entirely possible that the 18-1 Fakhretdinov is able to control this fight with his wrestling, but I haven't seen anything that justifies Fakhretdinov's status as a large favorite here.
Karine Silva – 1.95 X Multiplier
Silva is a well-rounded fighter who showed off all of her skills on The Contender Series, including crisp boxing, an ability to wrestle and opportunistic submission grappling. Poliana Botelho will pressure opponents and throw kicks, but she often struggles to find her range, which leaves her open to counter shots. While Botelho is clearly working to round out her game, Silva looks close to a finished product as far as skills are concerned, and I think she wins this fight by being the more solid fighter in every phase.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Ode Osbourne OVER 0.5 Takedowns and Zhalgas Zhumagulov OVER 2.0 Takedowns
While he has only notched one takedown in his UFC career, Osbourne appears to have designs on incorporating more wrestling into his game, as he shot seven times in his last bout against C.J. Vergara. Zarrukh Adashev has defended the only takedown attempted against him in his UFC career, but the way he overextends while throwing hammers should clear the way for Osbourne to get in on his hips. He may not be the best wrestler in the weight class, but I am willing to wager that a persistent Osbourne is able to ground the kickboxer at least once over the course of 15 minutes.
Zhumagulov's last two fights ended too quickly for him to attempt takedowns, but the 33-year-old can get very busy when given time to work, as we can see from the 11 shots he took in his UFC debut against Raulian Paiva. While Zhumagulov isn't the most efficient wrestler, Jeff Molina will enter the contest with just a 37 percent takedown defense rate, having been grounded at least twice in his first two UFC contests.
Bets to Consider
Jair Rozenstruik wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+200)
As KO/TKO is the primary way in which Rozenstruik wins his fights, I can only assume the extra money on the line reflects the fact that Alexander Volkov has been knocked out just twice in his 44-fight career. That may make this bet seem like a long shot, but Volkov has looked exceedingly fragile of late, getting tired almost immediately in fights against Tom Aspinall, Marcin Tybura and Ciryl Gane. He was also getting hit hard on the feet against Aspinall, which doesn't bode well for a fight with Rozenstruik, who is one of the hardest punchers in the division. "Biggie Boy's" deliberate approach could result in an uneventful scrap before the knockout blow materializes, but I don't see this version of Volkov withstanding the type of punishment that the fighter from Suriname is capable of delivering.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Mike Trizano UNDER 72.5 Strikes and Lucas Almeida UNDER 63.5 Strikes
Trizano has hit this mark more often than not in his UFC career, but I would argue that willing dance partners were key in making those fights exciting. In Almeida, Trizano finds himself standing across from a slow-paced counter striker, which could lead to a number of exchanges where these two men trade single shots. Things could get a bit tricky if Trizano decides to employ a wrestling attack, but I think this fight will be contested at kickboxing range more often than not, which should work to keep totals low.
Felice Herrig UNDER 104.5 Strikes and Karolina Kowalkiewicz OVER 69.5 Strikes
These lines are just about the polar opposite of what happened when the two met in 2018 when Herrig landed 97 strikes and the Polish fighter notched 140 in a victory. It's no secret that Kawolkiewicz has fallen on hard times since then, but it's not as though Herrig has been riding high, as "Lil Bulldog" has lost her last three fights, and has been away from the Octagon for more than two years. While it's tough to rely on either fighter, I still expect Karolina to come forward with volume and Herrig to try and impose her will against the fence. This should result in a scrap that is fairly similar to their first encounter.
