This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
While no official title fights will be headlining July's second pay-per-view event, the UFC will be bringing back its "BMF" Championship -- a rematch of a former Fight of the Year-winner between two men who will swing for the fences until one goes down: Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje.
As a reminder, the following selections are purely picks. If you're looking for a fantasy-specific breakdown of these fights, check out the MMA Mashup from Chris Olson or our DraftKings UFC 291 preview courtesy of Jon Litterine. We also have a MMA DFS Lineup Optimizer to try if you're looking to try out different combinations of fighters or generate multiple lineups.
| MATCHUP | WEIGHT CLASS | JON | JAKE | CHRIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130) | Lightweight | Gaethje | ||
| Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs. Alex Pereira (-105) | Light | Pereira | Pereira | |
| Tony Ferguson (+270) vs. Bobby Green (-350) | Lightweight | Green | Green | Green |
| Michael Chiesa (+125) vs. Kevin Holland (-145) | Welterweight | Holland | Holland | |
| ||||
| UFC 291 RECORD | 4-0 | 3-1 | 1-3 | |
| 2023 RECORD | 27-17 | 27-17 | 22-22 | |
| 2023 PERCENTAGE | .614 | .614 | .500 | |
| 2022 RECORD | 34-27 | 40-21 | 25-26 | |
| 2022 PERCENTAGE | .557 | .656 | .490 | |
| 2021 RECORD | 35-28 | 42-21 | 37-26 | |
| 2021 PERCENTAGE | .556 | .667 | .586 | |
| 2020 RECORD | 36-18 | 34-20 | 28-26 | |
| 2020 PERCENTAGE | .667 | .630 | .519 | |
| 2019 RECORD | 39-19 | 35-23 | 32-26 | |
| 2019 PERCENTAGE | .672 | .603 | .552 | |
| ALL-TIME | 266-171 | 275-162 | 215-173 | |
| ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE | .609 | .629 | .554 |
MATCHUP | WEIGHT | JOE "SUNTZU" | SHAUN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130) | Lightweight | Gaethje | |
| Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs. Alex Pereira (-105) | Light | Pereira | Pereira |
| Tony Ferguson (+270) vs. Bobby Green (-350) | Lightweight | Green | Green |
| Michael Chiesa (+125) vs. Kevin Holland (-145) | Welterweight | Holland | Holland |
| |||
| UFC 291 RECORD | 4-0 | 3-1 | |
| 2023 RECORD | 28-16 | 28-16 | |
| 2023 PERCENTAGE | .636 | .636 | |
| 2022 RECORD | 38-23 | 39-22 | |
| 2022 PERCENTAGE | .623 | .639 | |
| 2021 RECORD | 38-25 | 36-27 | |
| 2021 PERCENTAGE | .603 | .571 | |
| 2020 RECORD | 36-18 | 38-16 | |
| 2020 PERCENTAGE | .667 | .704 | |
| 2019 RECORD | 34-24 | 34-24 | |
| 2019 PERCENTAGE | .586 | .586 | |
| ALL-TIME | 211-125 | 205-121 | |
| ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE | .628 | .628 |
MATCHUP | WEIGHT | COLE | DRAKE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier (-150) vs. Justin Gaethje (+130) | Lightweight | Gaethje | |
| Jan Blachowicz (-125) vs. Alex Pereira (-105) | Light | ||
| Tony Ferguson (+270) vs. Bobby Green (-350) | Lightweight | Green | |
| Michael Chiesa (+125) vs. Kevin Holland (-145) | Welterweight | Holland | |
| |||
| UFC 291 RECORD | 2-2 | 1-3 | |
| 2023 RECORD | 27-17 | 23-21 | |
| 2023 PERCENTAGE | .614 | .523 | |
| 2022 RECORD | 39-22 | 39-22 | |
| 2022 PERCENTAGE | .639 | .639 | |
| 2021 RECORD | 43-21 | 17-14 | |
| 2021 PERCENTAGE | .672 | .548 | |
| 2020 RECORD | N/A | N/A | |
| 2020 PERCENTAGE | N/A | N/A | |
| 2019 RECORD | N/A | N/A | |
| 2019 PERCENTAGE | N/A | N/A | |
| ALL-TIME | 106-58 | 79-57 | |
| ALL-TIME PERCENTAGE | .646 | .581 |
THE PICKERS
Jon Litterine: RotoWire lead MMA beat writer and scribe for our weekly DrafKings preview. Lead analyst on the RotoWire MMA Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @JonLitterine.
Jake Letarski: RotoWire.com Operations Manager, plus MMA and NCAA Hoops Senior Editor. Host on the RotoWire MMA Podcast and guest on the RotoWire Fantasy Football Podcast. Follow him on Twitter at @RotoJake.
Chris Olson: Contributor at RotoWire to "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," as well as The MMA Mashup, DFS Baseball, a MMA gambling columnist and fight recaps. Follow him on Twitter at @RealChrisOlson.
Joe "SunTszu": Known more commonly by his Twitter handle @SunTszu, Joe is a Hedge Fund Executive by day and high-volume DFS player by night. He is a 2x "Bracket Challenge" & "Gotham qualifier. You can also find him as one of the original contributors of "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," a DFS-centric video breakdown. He is also a co-creator of the "Creating Alpha in DFS" podcast.
@theDFSniper: @theDFSniper is the host and lead instigator of "Fight IQ, presented by RotoWire," a DFS-centric video breakdown. He also appears on the LoudMouth MMA podcast and contributes soccer content to DFS Army.
Cole Shelton: Cole Shelton is a full-time sports writer focusing on MMA. His work has appeared on BJPenn.com, CBC Sports, Sports Betting Dime and Blue Jays Nation. He currently pens the MMA Best Bets column on RotoWire. Follow him on Twitter at @ColeShelton91.
Drake Burden: Drake is a proven DFS winner with multiple four-figure paydays under his belt. He took an interest to writing MMA during the pandemic and is active in various Discords and other social media communities. Follow him on Twitter at @DBurdz.
