This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 285 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Esteban Ribovics (11-0-0) v. Loik Radzhabov (16-4-1)
Esteban Ribovics - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Loik Radzhabov - Height: 5'9" - Reach: N/A – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Both fighters will be making their UFC debuts. Though both guys are solid offensive grapplers, I expect most of this fight to be a striking affair. I like the power coming out of Ribovics, but Radzhabov will have experience on his side. So the odds should be closer in this one, and I side with the dog.
UFC 285 Pick: Ribovics
Da'Mon Blackshear (12-4-1) v. Farid Basharat (9-0-0)
Da'Mon Blackshear - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" - Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Farid Basharat - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Blackshear will need his best grappling and a submission to win this fight. I expect Basharat to push a suffocating pace, grinding out a high-scoring decision or an early finish. Basharat is one of the safest plays on the card.
UFC 285 Pick: Basharat
Jessica Penne (14-6-0) v. Tabatha Ricci (7-1-0)
Jessica Penne - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Tabatha Ricci - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Penne continues her downward trend toward retirement. She just turned 40 and has little left in the gas tank. Ricci will have the advantage everywhere the fight goes and just needs to avoid putting herself in a compromised position. How well she scores will largely depend on her pace and if she is able to control Penne on the mat.
UFC 285 Pick: Ricci
Mana Martinez (10-3-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (7-0-0)
Mana Martinez - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Cameron Saaiman - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds for this fight are much closer than they appear. Both guys are solid strikers with power and have a good wrestling background. Saaiman tends to wear opponents out early and take over late, but Martinez has excellent cardio and should keep this close. Saaiman is slightly better everywhere, but I would not be surprised if Martinez got the upset.
UFC 285 Pick: Saaimon
Ian Garry (10-0-0) v. Song Kenan (19-6-0)
Ian Garry - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
Song Kenan - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Garry has been impressive through three UFC fights and draws another winnable matchup. However, Kenan is not someone to take lightly, and Garry must avoid eating too many big shots. I expect this to be a striking battle with some wrestling mixed in. Garry will throw more volume and should win on the judge's scorecards; however, he will not hit value without a finish.
UFC 285 Pick: Garry
Julian Marquez (9-3-0) v. Marc-Andre Barriault (14-6-0)
Julian Marquez - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Marc-Andre Barriault - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: If you told me Marquez's game plan was to get this fight to the mat, I would be all for him winning. However, he tends to strike until he gets taken down and then grapples. Barriault is the better striker of the two and likely the one with more power. He should also throw more volume. A low score is likely without an early finish.
UFC 285 Pick: Barriault
Viviane Araujo (11-4-0) v. Amanda Ribas (10-3-0)
Viviane Araujo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Amanda Ribas - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the tightest fights on the card. Both ladies have similar skill sets and can fight anywhere this goes. I suspect this will come down to who controls better when on the mat, as the striking should be close. I lean toward Ribas as she has fought better competition and has much better overall defense. A high score for DFS is unlikely to come out of this fight without multiple takedowns and control time.
UFC 285 Pick: Ribas
Derek Brunson (23-8-0) v. Dricus Du Plessis (18-2-0)
Derek Brunson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 23 wins
Dricus Du Plessis - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Brunson had his five-fight winning streak snapped last time out and will now be looking to end the streak of the rising Du Plessis. Du Plessis is a perfect 4-0 in the UFC and gets better and more comfortable with each fight. I expect him to come out fast, stop the attempted takedowns of Brunson and eventually record a first or second-round knockout. He should be better everywhere this fight goes, and another high score from him is likely.
UFC 285 Pick: Du Plessis
Cody Garbrandt (12-5-0) v. Trevin Jones (13-9-0)
Cody Garbrandt - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Trevin Jones - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: If Garbrandt was going to win another fight, this might be the last chance. He has been knocked out in four of his last six fights and only has one win. Jones is on a three-fight losing streak, but all against excellent competition. If Garbrandt stands a chance, he needs to hit something flush or get this to the mat and keep control. Jones is taking this fight on short notice, but I will still side with him to win. At this point in Garbrandt's career, I do not trust him at all.
UFC 285 Pick: Jones
Jamie Pickett (13-8-0) v. Bo Nickal (3-0-0)
Bo Nickal - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 3 wins
Jamie Pickett - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: If Pickett is going to win, it will be by knockout within 60 seconds of the bell. After that, this fight should be all Nickal. He will chain takedowns and keep control until he submits Pickett. His value will ride on which round he gets that finish.
UFC 285 Pick: Nickal
Mateusz Gamrot 21-2-0) v. Jalin Turner (13-5-0)
Mateusz Gamrot - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 21 wins
Jalin Turner - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This is the first fight on a loaded main card with two guys that have quickly risen to the top. While Turner has been impressive and has the tools to cause issues for Gamrot, more is needed to beat him. Gamrot has intense, suffocating wrestling, and I fully expect him to chain takedowns and keep Turner from being able to get much done. If he enacts his game plan, he should score well for DFS.
UFC 285 Pick: Gamrot
Geoff Neal (15-4-0) v. Shavkat Rakhmonov (16-0-0)
Geoff Neal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Neal needs a knockout to win this one. Rakhmonov will be better everywhere and should dictate where this fight goes. He is once again one of my most confident plays on the card and is safe to play everywhere.
UFC 285 Pick: Rakhmonov
Valentina Shevchenko (23-3-0) v. Alexa Grasso (15-3-0)
Valentina Shevchenko - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 23 wins
Alexa Grasso - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: I would like to see Grasso win this fight, but I am not sure she can. Her only advantage in this fight is volume. She could win with volume if she can avoid being taken down and controlled. However, Shevchenko will likely have other plans, looking to throw leg kicks and move in for takedowns, where she should dominate. This fight should be action-packed and could go all five rounds for a close decision.
UFC 285 Pick: Shevchenko
Jon Jones (26-1-0) v. Ciryl Gane (11-1-0)
Jon Jones - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 84" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 26 wins
Ciryl Gane - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: The long-awaited return and move to heavyweight of Jon "Bones" Jones is finally here. People have been clamoring for this, and he is chock-full of confidence. He was arguably the best fighter the UFC has seen three years ago. His return after three years will have plenty of questions. Will he have ring rust? Will his move to heavyweight even the playing field for his opponents? Does he slow down with this move? All questions will be answered Saturday night. Jones' best path to victory will be to get this fight to the mat and either keep control or find a submission. Gane has some of the best footwork and striking in the UFC, which will make things difficult for the returning star. He will also have a better overall defense and more volume. The winner of this fight likely makes any optimal line.
UFC 285 Pick: Gane
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 285 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
