This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Journey Newson (9-3-0, 1NC) v. Fernie Garcia (10-1-0)
Journey Newson - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Decent grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Fernie Garcia - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent grappling
~ 4 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this fight to primarily play out on the feet with plenty of volume from both sides. Newson will have an advantage in power, while Garcia will have an advantage in volume. I expect Newson to pressure forward, looking to fight in the pocket. Garcia throws more but tends to leave himself open to be hit, which could be the difference-maker in this one. I would not trust either guy in cash contests, but GPP dart throws for either guy would make sense, particularly Newson with the chance for a knockout.
My Pick: Newson
Ariane Carnelossi (14-2-0) v. Loopy Godinez (7-2-0)
Ariane Carnelossi - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Lupita Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Loopy does well using her striking to set up takedowns and then uses her strength to keep her opponents down. Carnelossi applies excellent forward pressure, throwing good volume, and has power for the division. She also has strong wrestling and deadly ground-and-pound. As a result, the odds should be much closer in this fight. I think Carnelossi will be better anywhere this fight goes, making her one of the best DFS plays on the slate.
My Pick: Carnelossi
Kleydson Rodrigues (7-1-0) v. CJ Vergara (9-3-1)
Kleydson Rodrigues - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 5 finishes in 7 wins
CJ Vergara - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to play out similar to the night's first fight, on the feet. Both guys are high-volume, and a finish is a definite possibility for one of them. Vergara will likely be pressuring into the pocket, looking to brawl, while Rodrigues sits back and throws kicks to slow him down. Unfortunately, Rodrigues tends to keep his hands down, leaving his head open to shot after shot. Vergara runs short on gas the later the fight gets and can be wild at times. Nevertheless, Vergara makes an exciting shot in GPP due to his knockout upside.
My Pick: Vergara
Tracy Cortez (9-1-0) v. Melissa Gatto (8-0-2)
Tracy Cortez - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 9 wins
Melissa Gatto - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Both ladies have impressed so far in the UFC, with neither having lost a fight. While the fight is on the feet, I expect Gatto to lead in volume and power. Cortez will likely be the one initiating takedowns, but unless she immediately gets top control, it could work against her, as Gatto is a dangerous grappler. So long as Gatto does not stay on her back for too long, I think she scores the upset, making her an excellent play for GPP and cash. However, if she accepts being put on her back, it could be a long, boring fight.
My Pick: Gatto
Francisco Trinaldo (27-8-0) v. Danny Roberts (18-5-0)
Francisco Trinaldo - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 14 finishes in 27 wins
Danny Roberts - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Another fight that should primarily play out on the feet. Trinaldo is the better wrestler, but Roberts is the better grappler, so I do not expect this to hit the mat often. Neither guy is high-volume, so a lower score decision is likely if there is no finish. Trinaldo is now 43, and the majority of his fights go the distance. Roberts is nearly a decade younger with more in the tank, so if there is a finish, it is likely by the dog.
My Pick: Roberts
Blagoy Ivanov (18-4-0, 1NC) v. Marcos Rogerio De Lima (19-8-1)
Blagoy Ivanov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Marcos Rogerio De Lima - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 16 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a close heavyweight bout. If it stays on the feet, I expect de Lima to have an advantage in volume and power. However, he does tend to tire out in the later rounds, which could play a big part later in the fight. On the other hand, Ivanov is quick, has power and will have a significant advantage on the mat if he chooses to wrestle. If Ivanov uses his wrestling, he would be entirely safe in cash and GPP. If the fight stays on the feet, the fight becomes much closer, with the edge going to de Lima, making him a decent GPP play.
My Pick: Ivanov
Brandon Royval (13-6-0) v. Matt Schnell (15-5-0)
Brandon Royval - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 68" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling/Plus grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
Matt Schnell - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: After three consecutive fight cancellations, Schnell will finally make his way back into the ring. He draws a scrappy opponent in Royval, who I believe pieces Schnell up to a finish. Schnell's best chance in this fight is to exploit Royval's mistakes and sneak in a choke while they are grappling. However, Royval will have the advantage just about everywhere and should control where the fight takes place. I expect him to pressure forward, mixing in his striking with takedowns and working to a submission attempt. His tenacity should be the difference-maker in this fight, and I expect him to work Schnell down and finish him.
My Pick: Royval
Macy Chiasson (8-2-0) v. Norma Dumont (7-1-0)
Macy Chiasson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
Norma Dumont - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 2 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: I see this playing out on the feet and ending with a boring decision. Both ladies are fighting at their natural weight, and both like to strike from range. Chiasson sports a 5-inch reach advantage and should look to take full advantage of it. Dumont will need to crash the pocket or attack with kicks. Both ladies average about one takedown per 15 minutes but typically make nothing of them. Dumont is the better overall fighter and should win, but volume can make a huge difference in a slow fight and could cause Chiasson to earn the upset. I would avoid both ladies in DFS.
My Pick: Dumont
Randy Brown (14-4-0) v. Khaos Williams (13-2-0)
Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Khaos Williams - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: A strikers delight unless Brown chooses to mix in a takedown and grapple his way to a win. Khaos will likely be pressuring forward with more significant power and more volume. If Brown decides to get into a striking match, I see this ending with him getting knocked out mid-way through the fight. Brown is dangerous on the mat and excels at finding chokes. A high score is unlikely without an early finish, making this more of a GPP fight than cash.
My Pick: Williams
Andre Fialho (15-4-0) v. Cameron VanCamp (15-5-1)
Andre Fialho - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
Cameron VanCamp - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 74" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 13 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: VanCamp will be making his long-awaited debut, while Fialho will be making his third UFC fight since January and second in three weeks. I expect Fialho to come out pressuring forward with considerable power, likely ending the fight early. However, VanCamp has an outside shot if he can get the fight to the mat and submit Fialho. Fialho should be high-owned GPP and cash, as most see this as a much easier fight than his first two. VanCamp can be used sparingly in GPP as a dart throw in mass-entry tournaments.
My Pick: Fialho
Donald Cerrone (36-16-0, 2NC) v. Joe Lauzon (28-16-0)
Donald Cerrone - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 27 finishes in 36 wins
Joe Lauzon - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 26 finishes in 28 wins
DFS Perspective: Lauzon has not fought since October 2019, well over two years ago. It is hard to trust anyone who has been out of the ring that long. I think he is live for an upset finish in the first round, but it should be all Cowboy after that. He has far better cardio, more volume and has been far more active. Seeing that neither fighter has been successful over their last four or five fights, it is hard to trust them for cash contests.
My Pick: Cowboy
Mauricio Rua (27-12-1) v. Ovince Saint Preux (25-16-0)
Mauricio Rua - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 22 finishes in 27 wins
Ovince Saint Preux - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: A rematch from 2014, a fight ending in 34 seconds with OSP knocking out Rua. I do not expect much to be different in this one, except for it to be a longer fight. Rua is 40 and did not look great last time out. OSP is 39, still shows signs of life, but is only 2-3 in his last five. The fight should primarily take place in the open cage with some work done in the clinch. OSP will have more power and better cardio and will be my pick to win. He may not produce enough to hit value without a finish but should be safe to use for cash.
My Pick: OSP
Michael Chandler (22-7-0) v. Tony Ferguson (26-7-0)
Michael Chandler - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Elite wrestling/Plus grappling
~ 17 finishes in 22 wins
Tony Ferguson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys are never in a boring fight, and this one will be no different. Both combatants have well-rounded games and will not have issues fighting anywhere this goes. I would give a considerable advantage to Chandler with power and grappling to Ferguson. However, wrestling is solid for both fighters, so this comes down to game plans. I expect Chandler to come out fast with forward pressure, looking to swing in the pocket and score a knockout. Ferguson has the reach advantage and should keep the striking at a distance to avoid Chandler's power. In the end, I think Chandler forces Ferguson to eat too many shots and eventually scores a brutal knockout. Chandler is solid for cash and GPP. Given Ferguson's pedigree, he is always a threat and still makes a solid dart throw for GPP tournaments.
My Pick: Chandler
Rose Namajunas (12-4-0) v. Carla Esparza (19-6-0)
Rose Namajunas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Carla Esparza - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Elite wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Rose has been excellent in her last two fights, winning the belt and then defending it. She has shown improved striking and grappling and will need both in order to defend her title again. However, Esparza might be the hottest fighter in the division right now, and stopping her powerful chain wrestling will be daunting. Her striking leaves much to be desired, but nobody has been able to stop her takedowns recently. Once she has them pinned on the mat, it has been a tiresome struggle to get back to their feet. Against just about anyone else right now, I would go with Rose to defend her title, but since she has shown considerable weakness in getting taken down, I will go with the dog to take the belt. I expect Esparza to continually shoot successfully and keep Rose pinned on the mat, racking up control time en route to a victory. I like Esparza for cash and GPP.
My Pick: Esparza
Charles Oliveira (32-8-0, 1NC) v. Justin Gaethje (24-3-0)
Charles Oliveira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/Elite grappling
~ 29 finishes in 32 wins
Justin Gaethje - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 20 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: This has the makings to be a Fight of the Year contender. Oliveira is an elite submission specialist, and it would be his best path to victory in this one. He publicly stated that he wanted to go toe to toe with Gaethje and knock him out, but I do not think that would work for him. Gaethje has an insane motor, considerable power and throws out a ton of volume. He should dominate on the feet, and if it stays there too long, he should knock out Oliveira. If Oliveira takes Gaethje's back, it could be over in an instant. Take your winner and plug them into your lineups for cash or GPP. I'll side with the Highlight to get the belt back and finish Oliveira.
My Pick: Gaethje
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strike or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strike or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
