This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Drake Burden takes a look at this weekend's UFC Vegas 58 card and provides his best plays, top DFS picks, lineup strategy and predictions for the main event. For more UFC Vegas 58 content, check out DraftKings plays from Jon Litterine and Best Bets by Cole Shelton.
Ronnie Lawrence (8-1-0) v. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (9-2-0)
Ronnie Lawrence - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 8 wins
Saidyokub Kakhramonov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Potential Fight of the Night to kick off the card. I expect much of this fight to play out on the mat. I would give the edge in wrestling to Lawrence and the grappling to Kakhramonov. Kakhramonov will also have the edge on the feet, but I do not expect much striking. This fight comes down to who keeps control on the mat. Lawrence is great at chaining takedowns and holding fighters down. Kakhramonov is crafty when looking for submissions and has a nasty guillotine. Both guys make great GPP plays with their ceilings, but I prefer Lawrence for cash, given his takedown and control ability.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Lawrence
Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-3-0) v. Karl Roberson (9-5-0)
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 83" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Karl Roberson - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Both guys are on a bit of a slide, and this could be a loser-gets-cut situation. This fight should primarily take place on the feet for as long as it lasts. Nzechukwu sports a massive size advantage and should be the one pushing the pace. Roberson will be looking to dart in and out of the pocket, trying to connect with something big. He may also resort to takedown attempts, but I think that only hurts him more. Nzechukwu is the better fighter and should land a knockout at some point in this fight, making him safe for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Nzechukwu
Cody Brundage (7-2-0) v. Tresean Gore (4-1-0)
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Tresean Gore - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 3 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a tightly-contested fight, but there are plenty of question marks. I am not entirely sold on Gore yet and need to see him a few more times. He appears to have a solid all-around game with powerful striking and solid grappling. Brundage is an enforcer and bullies his way into opponents looking to drop them to the mat and keep them controlled. He will have the advantage on the mat and in cardio. Gore will hold an edge in striking, but his cardio and defensive grappling are questionable. I like Brundage for cash and GPP, as I believe he wears Gore out early for a finish or dominant decision.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Brundage
Antonina Shevchenko (9-4-0) v. Cortney Casey (10-9-0)
Antonina Shevchenko - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 9 wins
Cortney Casey - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a slow-paced striking match. Both ladies match up pretty evenly, and it comes down to who lands the better strikes. Casey will likely throw a little more volume, but Schevchenko will be landing harder, and her kicks should make all the difference. I do not expect a high score from either fighter in a win and would not use either in cash or GPP.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Shevchenko
Aiemann Zahabi (8-2-0) v. Ricky Turcios (12-2-0)
Aiemann Zahabi - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
Ricky Turcios - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Turcios is an exciting young fighter and should have the edge just about anywhere this fight goes. He can be a bit reckless at times and is not very technical. Zahabi will have the edge in technical striking and power, but without a knockout, I do not see how he will win this fight. Turcios can win with volume, or with takedowns and control. He just needs to avoid the power from Zahabi, making him a great play for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Turcios
Michael Johnson (21-17-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (14-5-0)
Michael Johnson - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 11 finishes in 20 wins
Jamie Mullarkey - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Johnson will have an advantage with speed, but that is about it. He has the power to score a knockout, but he would be playing with fire, trading blows in the pocket with Mullarkey. Mullarkey will have an edge anywhere this fight goes and should be the one pushing the pace. He will likely look to mix in his wrestling as he should dominate on the mat. I like Mullarkey to win this one by finish, making him safe for cash and GPP contests. Johnson still makes an exciting GPP dart, given his knockout ability.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Mullarkey
Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1) v. Nina Nunes (10-7-0)
Cynthia Calvillo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 9 wins
Nina Nunes - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Calvillo has largely underwhelmed in her three consecutive losses and is sitting on the chopping block. She needs to get back to her wrestling roots if she is going to win this fight. Nunes has lost two consecutive bouts after winning four straight and will need to avoid takedowns if she is going to get back in the win column. I do not trust either fighter, and this is as close to a pick-em for me as it gets. I would avoid using either fighter in cash. Both can be used as GPP dart throws.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Nunes
Jared Vanderaa (12-8-0) v. Chase Sherman (15-10-0)
Jared Vanderaa - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Chase Sherman - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should primarily play out on the feet, with a possible early knockout. Vanderaa will have the edge in size and cardio, while Sherman will hold the edge in volume and power. Both guys are capable of scoring a knockout. However, Vanderaa is the more hittable of the two, and with Sherman's bull rushes, he could find himself in trouble early. That said, Sherman is riding a four-fight losing streak, was recently cut from the UFC and brought back, and now finds himself with his back against the wall again. Vanderaa is in a similar must-win situation after losing three straight. I would not trust either guy in cash, but both would make solid GPP plays.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Sherman
Douglas Silva de Andrade (28-4-0, 1NC) v. Said Nurmagomedov (15-2-0)
Douglas Silva de Andrade - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 28 wins
Said Nurmagomedov - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Silva de Andrade has looked a little recharged in his last two fights but will need to be cautious in this one. He has considerable power but looks to have lost a step. Nurmagomedov will be the faster and more dangerous of the two. He can win anywhere, but specifically with volume or on the mat. Nurmagomedov is safe for cash and GPP contests, while Silva de Andrade makes a GPP dart throw for a potential early knockout.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Nurmagomedov
Caio Borralho (11-1-0, 1NC) v. Armen Petrosyan (7-1-0)
Caio Borralho - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Armen Petrosyan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Borralho looks to be a complete fighter. He has solid striking with power, and his ground game is excellent. Petrosyan is a striker who uses fast hands and forward pressure to overwhelm fighters. He will be looking to keep this fight upright and land something heavy to end it early. Borralho should look for takedowns early and get this fight to the mat, where he likely dominates. I like Borralho in cash and GPP as he has a high ceiling and floor. Petrosyan makes a solid GPP punt with his knockout and volume potential.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: Borralho
Rafael dos Anjos (31-13-0) v. Rafael Fiziev (11-1-0)
Rafael dos Anjos - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 31 wins
Rafael Fiziev - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Decent wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an exciting main event between the vet and up-and-comer. RDA looked fantastic in his most recent fight, showing off his elite cardio and well-timed takedowns. Fiziev has won five straight and is moving towards a title shot. He has significant power, especially in his kicks, and is a tactician with his hands. I think Fiziev will need to knock RDA if he is going to win this fight. RDA has more ways to win and has gone five rounds multiple times compared to Fiziev's zero. I love that RDA is the dog and will use him for cash and GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 58 Pick: dos Anjos
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
