UFC Houston Predictions: DraftKings DFS Preview & Picks
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a$350k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Sean Strickland (29-7-0) v. Anthony Hernandez (15-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Strickland ($7,100), Hernandez ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Strickland (+230), Hernandez (-285)
Set to turn 35 years old less than a week after this event takes place, Strickland remains firmly in the title conversation at 185 pounds despite having lost two of his last three fights. Both setbacks came via decision against Dricus du Plessis in title fights. The first -- in which Strickland lost the belt -- was close, but the second last February was not. Things don't figure to get much, even any easier here against Hernandez.
Hernandez could have been given a title shot in this spot and it would have been perfectly justified. He's won eight fights in a row dating back to February 2021, with six of those (four submissions, two knockouts) coming via stoppage. His last loss came in May 2020. Fluffy appears to be getting better every single time we see him inside the Octagon, which rarely happens for a guy that is now 32 years old.
Strickland's style of fighting, especially offensively, has not changed over the years. He's super aggressive on the feet, constantly pushing forward and working behind his jab. In his last five fights, each of which were five rounds and went the distance, Strickland's significant strike totals are as follows: 128, 182, 173, 137. He's built for five rounds as long as he can stay upright long enough to get to that volume.
Therein lies the issue.
Hernandez is probably the best grappler in the division. He definitely has the best gas tank in the division. He's essentially just a middleweight version of Merab Dvalishvili. He fights with a pace and ferocity that no opponent can match.
Hernandez averages 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a ridiculous 48 percent of his shots. In his last seven fights, Fluffy has landed at least attempts in every bout. In five of those fights he's landed six-plus, in four of them, eight-plus. His wrestling is the biggest difference maker in the company at 185 pounds.
How will Strickland handle the pressure? That's a good question.
His career 76 percent takedown defense is decent, but he gave up six on 11 attempts to du Plessis in their first fight. To his credit, he primarily got right back up, allowing just 2:08 worth of control time. Their second fight was a different setup entirely, with DDP attempting just two takedowns and landing one. Strickland looked slow on the feet that evening, and du Plessis just worked him in the stand up, taking 14 of the 15 rounds on the three scorecards.
Strickland theoretically has a chance to win this fight because he's going to remain active enough to win a decision as long as he remains upright, but his power is limited, and in a full arena (not the Apex), I just don't think there are going to be enough eye-catching blows to negate Hernandez's best grappling moments. Give me Fluffy via decision.
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Hernandez
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Featherweight
Dan Ige (19-10-0) v. Melquizael Costa (25-7-0)
DK Salaries: Ige ($7,300), Costa ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Ige (+170), Costa (-205)
As tough and entertaining as Ige is, he's more of an attraction than legitimate contender at 145 pounds. This is good use of his services. Put him on an arena show against a fringe top-15 guy and reap the benefits. Ige is never one to turn down a fight, but you are what your record says you are, and Dan's record states he's 2-4 in his past half-dozen bouts dating back to September 2023. It goes without saying he needs a win here.
Costa is getting a major step up in competition, and he deserves it. He's won five straight fights dating back to June 2024, albeit it against lower-level competition. During that streak, Mel has defeated Morgan Charriere, Julian Erosa, Christian Rodriguez, Andre Fili and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. Ige's last four setbacks have come against Patricio Pitbull, Lerone Murphy, Diego Lopes and Bryce Mitchell. These streaks are not equal.
We have plenty of evidence that states Ige can't really wrestle. He has middling size for the division at 5-foot-7 and defends the takedown at just 56 percent. He gave up five takedowns to Pitbull and another five to Mitchell. It's a major issue because even if a round is close, his opponent, if they have any grappling chops whatsoever, can attempt to steal the frame with a late shot.
I don't think Costa is as good of a grappler as his 1.93 takedowns per 15 minutes averaged would lead you to believe, but he's probably good enough to get Ige to the mat at least once or twice if he tries to go that route.
On the feet, Ige is probably the crisper striker and the guy more likely to put together the pretty combinations, but Costa has more power and is better defensively. I was shocked to see Mel only absorbs 3.06 significant strikes per 15 minutes. I would have guessed it was closer to four, if not higher.
Costa is almost exactly five years younger, too.
On a 14-fight card, you have plenty of opportunities to find underdog value, and Ige seems like one of the better ones. I agree with the premise that Costa should be favored, but I absolutely don't see a whopping $1,600 salary gap between the two. If you told me Costa was something like $8,300 and Ige was $7,900? Sure, I can buy that. But at this point and this value, the Ige side seems like a strict system value play. You know he's going to fight for your dollar. Just cross your fingers and hope he can remain upright and do his thing.
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Ige
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Heavyweight
Serghei Spivac (17-6-0) v. Ante Delija (26-7-0)
DK Salaries: Spivac ($7,600), Delija ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Spivac (+125), Delija (-150)
Spivac somehow just turned 31 years of age a few weeks ago, which seems crazy because I could have sworn he's been with the UFC a decade. Not quite, but he made his company debut back in May 2019, so it's been a while. More concerning is the fact he's lost two straight and three of four. Setbacks to Waldo Cortes-Acosta (unanimous decision) and Ciryl Gane (knockout) are understandable, but his first-round knockout loss to Jailton Almeida a year-plus ago has aged horribly given that he's since been released. He's another guy that needs to find a win here by whatever means necessary.
One of the most decorated heavyweights in PFL history, Delija made his UFC debut last September and knocked out Marcin Tybura in a shade over two minutes. Since he absorbed no damage in that fight, he got right back to work less than two months later against Cortes-Acosta and was eventually knocked out late in Round 1 after a very weird start to the fight in which Delija appeared to win via KO, only to have it overturned via replay and the fight restarted. He'll be 36 years old in August.
Spivac offers nothing on the feet. In his last 10 fights, he's landed more than 52 significant strikes just once. Yes, he has eight career wins via knockout, but almost all have come against the lowest level of competition around. He's not a power puncher by any means and looks awkward and uncomfortable in prolonged striking exchanges. He's never made much improvement in that area, and I don't expect any now.
Delija, on the other hand, fights like your typical heavyweight.
He had a bunch of submission wins early in his career, but none since 2014. At this point, he's a one-dimensional brawler with a limited gas tank. His last four fights, and six of his last seven, have all ended in Round 1.
His durability may be starting to go, however, with two of his four career knockout losses coming in his last four fights. Spivac might not be able to take advantage of that fact, but it's going to cause a problem sooner than later.
One would guess the longer this fight goes, this better it is for Spivac. He is the theoretically better all-around fighter.
This one could go either way. I wanted to take a small underdog shot on Spivac but the lack of durability ultimately sent me in the other direction. I just don't have the confidence he's going to be able to survive that initial flurry from Delija. He looks shot to me.
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Delija
Middleweight
Zachary Reese (10-2-0, 1NC) v. Michel Pereira (31-14-0, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Reese ($7,700), Pereira ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Reese (+130), Pereira (-155)
Pereira won eight in a row from September 2020 to May 2024, with four of those victories (three submissions, one knockout) coming via stoppage. Then he ran into Hernandez in a main event in October 2024 and was obliterated. He followed that up with a unanimous decision defeat to Abus Magomedov and a knockout at the hands of Kyle Daukaus, and now he's almost certainly fighting for his job at age 32. My initial lean is that Pereira is essentially done, but he's not without physical ability, and he's not old for the division, so who knows.
Reese earned his UFC opportunity with a 74-second submission win on Dana White's Contender Series in December 2023. He's 4-1 (1NC) in six official fights with the company while being matched up against about the lowest level of competition possible at 185 pounds. Even Pereira, in his diminished capacity, is probably his stiffest test to date.
Pereira is a freak athlete. He's extremely explosive and has legitimate power and an underrated grappling game. Prior to his long winning streak he fought foolishly, seemingly more worried about dancing and putting on a show than emerging victorious. Then things changed. He took his time and picked his shots better. Lately, I can't explain what's happening. He sort of looks like he doesn't want to be there, and I'm not sure why. Pereira certainly isn't old enough to be completely over the hill from an athletic standpoint.
Say what you will about Reese, but he makes you fight. He's aggressive and in your face. He's also every bit of 6-foot-4 and massive for the middleweight division. He's going to enter with a three-inch edge in height and four-inch edge in reach over Pereira.
The pure physical abilities are in the Brazilian's favor, but if he's not committed and doesn't truly want to be there, Reese is plenty good enough to pull what will somehow be just a mild upset.
Toss the Hernandez defeat aside. He's on another level. It's entirely possible both Magomedov and Daukaus are good opposition and Pereira simply was outclassed. I don't rate Reese that highly.
One would hope Pereira knows his back is against the wall and comes out ready to go. This pick could blow up in my face in a major way but I'm willing to give the Brazilian one more chance.
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Pereira
UFC Houston Prelims Picks
Welterweight
Geoff Neal (16-7-0) v. Uros Medic (12-3-0)
DK Salaries: Neal ($8,700), Medic ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Neal (-205), Medic (+170)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Neal
Welterweight
Jacobe Smith (11-0-0) v. Josiah Harrell (11-0-0)
DK Salaries: Smith ($9,300), Harrell ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Smith (-300), Harrell (+240)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Smith
Welterweight
Chidi Njokuani (25-11-0, 1NC) v. Carlos Leal (22-7-0)
DK Salaries: Njokuani ($8,000), Leal ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Njokuani (+110), Leal (-130)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Leal
Flyweight
Ode Osbourne (13-9-0, 1NC) v. Alibi Idiris (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Osbourne ($7,800), Idiris ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Osbourne (+110), Idiris (-130)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Osbourne
Flyweight
Alden Coria (11-3-0, 1NC) v. Luis Gurule (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Coria ($9,000), Gurule ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Coria (-280), Gurule (+225)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Coria
Women's Bantamweight
Nora Cornolle (9-3-0) v. Joselyne Edwards (16-6-0)
DK Salaries: Cornolle ($7,000), Edwards ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Cornolle (+260), Edwards (-325)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Edwards
Welterweight
Ramiz Brahimaj (13-5-0) v. Punahele Soriano (12-4-0)
DK Salaries: Brahimaj ($8,300), Soriano ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Brahimaj (-130), Soriano (+110)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Soriano
Welterweight
Phil Rowe (11-6-0) v. Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Rowe ($7,400), Lebosnoyani ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Rowe (+180), Lebosnoyani (-220)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Lebosnoyani
Featherweight
Jordan Leavitt (12-3-0) v. Yadier Del Valle (10-0-0)
DK Salaries: Leavitt ($6,800), del Valle ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Leavitt (+320), del Valle (-310)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Del Valle
Women's Flyweight
Juliana Miller (5-3-0) v. Carli Judice (5-2-0)
DK Salaries: Miller ($6,500), Judice ($9,700)
Vegas Odds: Miller (+550), Judice (-800)
UFC HOUSTON PICK: Judice
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
