Top DFS Picks and Strategies for UFC 326
DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 326 card are live. Included in this preview are profiles for each fighter and breakdowns of my DFS strategy for every bout on the card. Welcome to Drake's Takes.
Top UFC 326 Picks & Career Results:
2026 Overall Picks: 48-17-0
2025 Overall Picks: 345-152-2
DFS Lock of the Week: Holloway
Fanduel Captain: Holloway/Johnson
Max Holloway (27-8-0) v. Charles Oliveira (36-11-0)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27-8 (12 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Elite volume striker with unmatched pace and durability
- Thrives in extended stand-up battles and overwhelms opponents with output
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 36-11 (10 KO/TKO, 22 submissions)
- Dangerous everywhere with elite submission threats and improved striking
- Defensive striking lapses and willingness to engage can create chaos
DFS Perspective: Holloway should have a field day if this remains primarily a striking battle. His pace, durability, and ability to drown opponents in volume create a massive scoring ceiling, especially in a five-round fight. Oliveira is always live with submission and chaos equity, but Holloway's pressure and sustained output favor him heavily in extended exchanges. Holloway profiles as a high-floor, high-ceiling DFS play and an early core candidate for UFC 326.
UFC 326 Pick: Holloway
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Caio Borralho (17-2-0) v. Reinier de Ridder (21-3-0)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-2 (5 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Methodical, control-heavy fighter with strong grappling fundamentals
- Prioritizes positioning and winning rounds over reckless finishing attempts
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: 78" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 21-3 (4 KO/TKO, 14 submissions)
- High-level grappler with strong submission chains and positional control
- Can struggle in prolonged striking exchanges against disciplined opponents
DFS Perspective: Borralho is the preferred side stylistically due to his composure, defensive awareness, and ability to dictate where the fight takes place. However, this projects as a potentially slower, grappling-heavy matchup where control exchanges may cancel each other out. Without a finish, the DFS ceiling could be somewhat limited compared to other fights on the card. Borralho has a clear path to a decision win, but this may profile more as a steady, moderate-scoring play rather than a slate-breaker unless he finds a late submission or dominant control stretches.
UFC 326 Pick: Borralho
Rob Font (22-9-0) v. Raul Rosas Jr. (11-1-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 22-9 (9 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Crisp boxer with strong jab and clean combinations
- Can be controlled by strong wrestlers who close distance consistently
Raul Rosas Jr.
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Switch
- Record: 11-1 (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Aggressive young grappler with strong takedown chains and top control
- Still developing striking defense and can be hittable in open exchanges
DFS Perspective: Font absolutely has the power and boxing to catch Rosas if he times him coming in, especially early. However, the more likely scenario is Rosas closing distance, securing takedowns, and controlling long stretches on the mat. If Rosas implements his wrestling-heavy approach, he has a strong DFS path through takedowns, control time, and submission threats. Font is a live underdog due to knockout equity, but Rosas profiles as the preferred DFS side with higher floor and grappling-based scoring upside.
UFC 326 Pick: Rosas Jr.
Drew Dober (28-15-0) v. Michael Johnson (24-19-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 28-15 (12 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Heavy-handed striker with proven knockout power
- Durable and comfortable in high-paced, back-and-forth battles
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 24-19 (10 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Fast hands and sharp boxing, especially early
- Inconsistency and durability concerns remain issues
DFS Perspective: This profiles as a pure striking battle with strong finish equity on both sides. Johnson's speed will create moments, but Dober's durability and heavier hands make him extremely live as an underdog. In what should be a back-and-forth affair, Dober's power gives him the edge in landing the more impactful shots. He's an appealing DFS dog with real knockout upside in a fight that likely scores well for whoever gets the finish.
UFC 326 Pick: Dober
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Gregory Rodrigues (18-6-0) v. Brunno Ferreira (15-2-0)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 18-6 (10 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Physical powerhouse with heavy hands and underrated grappling
- Can be hittable in wild exchanges but thrives in chaos
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 15-2 (9 KO/TKO, 5 submissions)
- Explosive finisher with serious early knockout power
- Most dangerous in the first round before pace slows
DFS Perspective: This is one of the most volatile fights on the card and a clear must-target for DFS. Both fighters bring massive power and finishing instincts, making an early stoppage highly likely. Rodrigues has the size and grappling edge if the fight extends, but Ferreira's first-round explosiveness is a real threat. Whoever wins likely scores very well, making this an excellent tournament fight with strong knockout equity on both sides.
UFC 326 Pick: Rodrigues
Cody Garbrandt (14-7-0) v. Long Xiao (27-10-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-7 (11 KO/TKO)
- Fast hands with real knockout power when he lets them go
- Low output in recent fights and durability concerns limit reliability
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 27-10 (5 KO/TKO, 9 submissions)
- Volume-based striker with steady pressure and activity
- Not overly flashy, but capable of banking rounds through consistent output
DFS Perspective: This is not an especially appealing DFS fight. Garbrandt still has power, but if he continues producing sub-3 significant strikes per minute, he leaves himself vulnerable to losing a low-scoring, volume-based decision. Xiao's steady activity could be enough to edge rounds if Garbrandt remains hesitant. Without a knockout, the ceiling for either fighter looks limited. This profiles as a possible fade unless ownership or salary creates a compelling leverage angle.
UFC 326 Pick: Xiao
Donte Johnson (7-0-0) v. Cody Brundage (11-8-1)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 7-0 (6 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Aggressive finisher with solid physical tools and forward pressure
- Comfortable pushing pace and capitalizing on defensive lapses
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-8-1 (6 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Wrestling-based fighter with early explosiveness
- Inconsistent durability and has struggled when extended exchanges break out
DFS Perspective: Brundage has been difficult to trust, and this matchup does him no favors. Johnson's pressure and finishing ability line up well against Brundage's defensive issues and tendency to fold under sustained offense. If Johnson forces exchanges and keeps the pace high, a finish is very realistic. Johnson profiles as a strong DFS play with knockout upside, while Brundage remains a fade candidate given recent performances.
UFC 326 Pick: Johnson
Ricky Turcios (12-5-1) v. Alberto Montes (10-1-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-5-1 (3 KO/TKO, 1 submission)
- Relentless pace with high motor and durability
- Can be vulnerable to strong wrestlers who consistently pursue takedowns
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 10-1 (1 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with solid submission instincts
- Most effective when able to dictate positioning and control from top
DFS Perspective: This is a difficult stylistic matchup for Turcios. While his pace and toughness always keep him competitive, avoiding takedowns and extended grappling exchanges for 15 minutes will be a major challenge. Montes' ability to pursue control and submission attempts gives him a clear DFS path through takedowns and positional scoring. Turcios has volume-based upside if he keeps it standing, but Montes profiles as the safer DFS side given the grappling advantage.
UFC 326 Pick: Montes
Cody Durden (17-9-1) v. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (9-1-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 17-9-1 (6 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Wrestling-first fighter who relies on takedowns and control
- Can be vulnerable in scrambles and when caught in transitions
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 9-1 (2 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Solid grappler with strong submission instincts
- Dangerous in scrambles and capable of capitalizing on positional mistakes
DFS Perspective: This matchup becomes much more interesting if Tumendemberel's grappling is as sharp as advertised. While Durden typically wants to control fights with wrestling, that approach could backfire if Tumendemberel is able to threaten from scrambles or lock in a choke. The submission upside gives Tumendemberel real DFS appeal, especially in tournaments. Durden still has a control-based path, but Tumendemberel offers the higher ceiling if he can capitalize on grappling exchanges and find a finish.
UFC 326 Pick: Tumendemberel
Su Mudaerji (18-7-0) v. Jesus Aguilar (12-3-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 18-7 (13 KO/TKO, 0 submissions)
- Long, powerful striker with dangerous counter ability
- Defensive grappling has been a recurring weakness
- Height: 5'4" – Reach: 62" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-3 (1 KO/TKO, 7 submissions)
- Grappling-heavy fighter with strong submission instincts
- Will need to close distance and avoid prolonged striking exchanges
DFS Perspective: This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Su's length and power give him serious knockout potential if he keeps the fight at range, but Aguilar's path is obvious — close distance, secure takedowns, and hunt submissions. Given Su's past grappling issues, Aguilar carries sneaky DFS upside if he can consistently get this to the mat. Su remains the more dangerous early-finisher on the feet, but Aguilar's submission equity makes this a volatile and intriguing tournament fight.
UFC 326 Pick: Aguilar
Rafael Tobias (14-1-0) v. Diyar Nurgozhay (10-2-0)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 14-1 (5 KO/TKO, 6 submissions)
- Physical, well-rounded fighter with strong pressure and finishing ability
- Comfortable dictating pace and capitalizing on defensive lapses
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Record: 10-2 (6 KO/TKO, 2 submissions)
- Athletic build with power, but inconsistent performances
- Has struggled to translate physical tools into effective UFC-level success
DFS Perspective: This sets up as a very favorable matchup for Tobias. Nurgozhay's recent struggles and inconsistency make it difficult to trust him, and this could realistically be his final UFC appearance if things go poorly. Tobias' pressure, composure, and overall skill set give him a clear path to control the fight across multiple phases. He profiles as a strong DFS option with solid win equity and realistic finishing upside if he pushes the pace early.
UFC 326 Pick: Tobias
Jeong Yeong Lee (11-3-0) v. Gaston Bolanos (8-5-0)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 11-3 (4 KO/TKO, 3 submissions)
- Fast, high-volume striker who pressures with consistent output
- Comfortable maintaining pace over three rounds
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 8-5 (6 KO/TKO)
- Explosive striker with knockout power and aggressive tendencies
- Can struggle when opponents outpace him and force extended exchanges
DFS Perspective: Lee's speed and volume should be the difference in this matchup. If he establishes rhythm early and keeps output high, he can bank rounds and pile up significant strikes against a more power-focused opponent. Bolanos always carries knockout danger, but Lee's pace and activity create a more reliable DFS scoring path. Lee profiles as the preferred DFS side with strong volume-based upside over three rounds.
UFC 326 Pick: Lee
Luke Fernandez (6-0-0) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-3-1)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 6-0 (5 KO/TKO)
- Aggressive striker with real knockout power and forward pressure
- Looks to overwhelm opponents early and capitalize on defensive lapses
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Record: 12-3-1 (7 KO/TKO, 4 submissions)
- Physical fighter with finishing ability and grappling background
- Recent performances have raised durability and consistency concerns
DFS Perspective: Bellato's last couple of showings make him difficult to trust, especially in a matchup against a heavy-handed striker. Fernandez's pressure and power create a strong path to an early knockout if he forces exchanges and lands clean. While Bellato has tools to compete, his defensive lapses make him vulnerable. Fernandez profiles as a high-upside DFS play with realistic knockout potential in what could be a decisive finish.
UFC 326 Pick: Fernandez
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
