The UFC is in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Saturday, March 7, for a solid UFC 326 card. In the main event, Max Holloway defends his BMF belt against Charles Oliveira in a rematch of their fight back in 2015.
Below, I'll share my UFC 326 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Middleweight
Gregory Rodrigues (18-6) vs. Brunno Ferreira (15-2)
On the main card of UFC 326, Gregory Rodrigues and Brunno Ferreira are set to rematch, and I like Rodrigues to get his lick back here.
Rodrigues and Ferreira fought back in 2023 when Ferreira took the fight on short notice and scored a stunning KO win his debut. Since then, Rodrigues has looked impressive and is coming off back-to-back wins over Jack Hermansson and Roman Kopylov.
Ferreira does have KO power, but Rodrigues has had a good chin for the most part, and I expect him to avoid Ferreira's power shots. On the feet, Rodrigues should be more active, which I predict will lead to a decision win this time around.
UFC 326 Best Bet: Gregory Rodrigues (-198)
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Weight Class: Bantamweight
Cody Garbrandt (14-7) vs. Long Xiao (27-10)
For my underdog pick at UFC 326, I'm taking former UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody Garbrandt to pick up a win over Long Xiao.
Garbrandt hasn't looked good, really, since he won the belt, but this is a fitting matchup for him to get back into the win column. Xiao is 1-2 in the UFC, and I have questions if he is UFC-caliber. Garbrandt, on the other hand, has really only lost to top guys.
I expect Garbrandt to be able to land the more damaging shots here to edge out a decision win. This will be a close fight, but I have to take Garbrandt at plus-money, as I'm not sold on Xiao being the real deal.
UFC 326 Best Bet: Cody Garbrandt (+124)
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Weight Class: Flyweight
Cody Durden (17-9-1) vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (9-1)
For my prop at UFC 326, I'm taking the flyweight prelim fight between Cody Durden and Nyamjargal Tumendemberel to go under 2.5 rounds.
Durden is a kill-or-killed be fighter at flyweight, as he's ultra-aggressive, which either leads to him getting an early finish or being finished later on in the fight. Tumendemberel, meanwhile, is a great submission fighter, which has been Durden's main Achilles heel.
On the feet, Durden will be the much better striker, and there's a real possibility he'll KO Tumendemberel in the first round. However, if it goes into the second round, I like Tumendemberel to get a submission win.
Regardless of who wins, this fight should be over by the end of the second round. Durden has gone under 2.5 rounds in five of his last six fights, while Tumendemberel has in two of his last three, which happened under the UFC umbrella.
UFC 326 Best Bet: Durden-Tumendemberel under 2.5 rounds (-140)
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Weight Class: Lightweight & Light heavyweight
Max Holloway (27-8) vs. Charles Oliveira (36-11)
Luke Fernandez (6-0) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (12-3-1)
For my parlay at UFC 326, I'm taking Max Holloway and Luke Fernandez to get their hands raised in Las Vegas.
Holloway beat Oliveira in the first fight years ago at featherweight, and I expect him to get a similar result here. The Hawaiian has excellent takedown defense and hasn't been submitted since his UFC debut against Dustin Poirier on short notice. I like Holloway to be able to keep it standing and land the better shots. Ultimately, I think he can get the TKO win, as Oliveira's chin is a concern, while Holloway is relentless on the feet.
The other leg of the parlay is Luke Fernandez to win his UFC debut in the opening fight of the card. Fernandez looks like the real deal, while Bellato is not UFC-caliber. He's 1-1-1 with 1 no-contest in his UFC tenure, but he hasn't impressed me. I like Fernandez to be able to catch Bellato right out of the gates and score a TKO win early in the fight to make a statement in his debut.
UFC 326 Best Bet: Max Holloway & Luke Fernandez parlay (+105)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 326 card.
- Gregory Rodrigues (-198)
- Cody Garbrandt (+124)
- Cody Durden-Nyamjargal Tumendemberel under 2.5 rounds (-140)
- Max Holloway-Luke Fernandez parlay (+105)
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