Dylan Larkin

Dylan Larkin

28-Year-Old CenterC
Detroit Red Wings
2024 Fantasy Outlook
Although Larkin struggled with an upper-body injury that cost him eight games in March and led to his offseason surgery, he still managed to have a productive 2023-24 campaign. He finished with a career-high 33 goals and 69 points in 68 contests, making it his third straight season with over 30 goals. It helps that Larkin's developed on-ice chemistry with Lucas Raymond, and the duo is projected to continue to play together in 2024-25. The only significant concern with Larkin is his health. Although he is expected to be ready for training camp, Larkin has now missed 39 games over the past four years -- not a devastating amount, but enough to be noteworthy. If the 28-year-old stays healthy this season, he would be a candidate to hit the 80-point mark, but it might be safer to pencil him in for 60-70 points under the assumption that he'll miss some time. Read Past Outlooks
$Signed an eight-year, $69.6 million contract extension with the Red Wings in March of 2023.
Two PP tallies in win
CDetroit Red Wings
November 3, 2024
Larkin scored two power-play goals, one the game-winner, in Saturday's 2-1 victory over the Sabres.
ANALYSIS
The Red Wings captain was involved in all the offense on the night, and all three goals came on Detroit power plays. It was Larkin's giveaway in the neutral zone that sprung Alex Tuch for a shortie to open the scoring for Buffalo midway through the first period, but Detroit's captain redeemed himself by striking twice with the man advantage in the second frame. Larkin is up to seven goals in 11 games to begin the season, with five of them coming on the power play, but he's contributed only one assist.
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2024–25 Time On Ice Stats
  • Average Time On Ice:
    20:14
  • Average Power Play TOI:
    2:59
  • Average Short-Handed TOI:
    1:35
 
Ice Time
Power Play
Short-Handed
2022–23
19:33
3:28
1:50
2023–24
20:10
3:11
1:32
2024–25
20:14
2:59
1:35
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Red Wings Power Play Depth Chart
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
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Larkin produced a career-high 79 points (32 goals, 47 assists) in 80 games last season. He also more than doubled his previous best with 31 power-play points during the 2022-23 campaign. Additionally, Larkin led the Red Wings with 244 shots on goal. Looking ahead, the talented two-way center should get a significant boost from Detroit's offseason acquisition of Alex DeBrincat, further bolstering his fantasy value. Larkin, who has reached the 30-goal plateau in each of the past two years, has the potential to surpass the 80-point mark in 2023-24. He's worthy of an early-round pick in all fantasy formats on draft day.
With his dreadful showing two seasons ago a thing of the past, Larkin rebounded this past year to the tune of 31 goals and 69 points in 71 games. Larkin's strong play didn't help the Red Wings much in the standings, but things should get better for the club this coming year. Larkin sat out Detroit's final seven regular season games due to core muscle surgery but should be fully recovered in time for training camp. Larkin might have trouble threatening a point-per-game pace if his shooting percentage, which was an abnormally high 14.6 percent a year ago, reverts to the mean. Regardless, Larkin is a fine mid-round fantasy pick with theoretical upside in all formats.
It was another lost season in Detroit and Larkin's lack of production didn't help matters. Yes, Larkin's supporting cast is extremely weak, but nine goals and 23 points in 44 games simply isn't enough for a player that is signed for two more seasons at a cap hit of $6.1 million. Larkin shoots the puck a ton and has always been a productive power-play weapon, so there is value here in terms of secondary categories, but a 45-50 point player isn't a ton of use to fantasy owners if it comes with an expected horrific plus-minus rating. It may be best to let another manager select Larkin -- who missed the final eight games of last season with a neck injury -- on draft day.
While Larkin produced just 19 goals and 53 points in 2019-20, he still remains one of the most exciting aspects of an otherwise lackluster Red Wings offense. Larkin had 73 points in 76 outings just one year prior, which shows what the 24-year-old center is capable of when everything goes right. Look for Larkin to settle in somewhere around a 25-goal, 60-point pace given his high shooting volume and quality linemates in Tyler Bertuzzi and Anthony Mantha in 2020-21. Larkin has a high floor as well -- he's a key piece of the Wings' top power play-unit so he'll likely see plenty of prime scoring chances in that role.
A consummate professional, Larkin figures to become Detroit's team captain ahead of his 23rd birthday. He's in charge of leading the celebrated Red Wings franchise back to respectability, but anything short of a Stanley Cup win would be considered a major letdown in the eyes of an impassioned leader who plays every game like it's his last. Larkin garnered a five-year, $30.5 million contract with the Wings last August and immediately paid dividends by setting career highs in goals (32) and points (72). Additionally, the trailblazer stepped up on the man advantage, with Larkin converting seven goals and eight helpers to nearly double his previous career best in power-play points. Despite leading his team in penalty minutes (75), Larkin came close to averaging 22 minutes of ice time in his fourth NHL season, and fantasy owners can expect even more improvement from him in 2019-20.
Larkin is already an established top-six contributor for the Red Wings, as evidenced by the fleet-footed pivot securing a five-year, $30.5 million contract extension in August. Known for his rigid work ethic, it wasn't the least bit surprising to see him bounce back from a sophomore slump. Larkin saw close to a three-minute surge in ice time on the way to 16 goals and a career-high 47 assists, plus he successfully transitioned from left wing to center, in his third year. The hometown kid's wheels spin in all three zones and there's no special teams situation that he can't handle, but the Wings have fared no better than 13th on the power play since Larkin first arrived. Until there's improvement in that important team metric, the phenom should be on the outside looking into the elite group of fantasy centers.
The Michigan native acted out the "sophomore slump" narrative in 2016-17, slipping by 12 points compared to his rookie campaign and moving from a team-best plus-11 rating to a hideous minus-28. Larkin’s fifth-place in the Calder Cup voting was met with sky-high expectations, but the Wings were perpetually injured, while the young forward pivoted away from his natural center position at times. He'd finish down the middle, gelling with fellow speedster Andreas Athanasiou to produce a point in five of the season’s final six contests. Larkin set a record for fastest skater in the 2016 NHL All-Star Skills competition, but he's still figuring out the best way to harness that speed in a way that benefits his linemates. While it may be true that Larkin is at his offensive best when he's the one carrying the puck, he posted the worst faceoff winning percentage among Detroit centers who took at least 100 draws last year -- unless he improves in that area, another switch to left wing can't be ruled out. Still, the 21-year-old is mature beyond his years and universally admired for his self-discipline. His next obstacle is to consistently skate in the top six, but the power-play role will stick, and we'd hedge on a significant bounceback season for Larkin.
With his breakneck speed and nose for the net, Larkin tallied 23 goals on 221 shots with a plus-11 rating as a rookie last season, securing team highs in each of those categories. Even so, the hometown boy isn’t the type who will rest on his laurels. Now that Pavel Datsyuk – a surefire Hall of Famer – has jettisoned for Russia, it will be up to young guns like Larkin to carry more of the weight offensively. Specifically, the power play could use a massive boost. Larkin averaged 2:14 of ice time on the man advantage in 2015-16, but only had five power-play tallies, which barely made up 11 percent of his point total. Although the 20-year-old is too popular to qualify as a sleeper pick, you won’t want to overlook Larkin in fantasy drafts, as he’s mature beyond his years and figures to see his usage spike a great deal compared to the 16:33 of ice time he averaged last year.
The Red Wings' 2014 first-round draft pick, Larkin shined at the University of Michigan in 2014-15, piling up 15 goals and 47 points in 35 games. If the performance against NCAA competition didn't already have his value on the rise, the 19-year-old surely turned some more heads with his dominant showing at the World Junior Championships, where he scored five times in five games. The 6-foot-1 forward is just one of several young, offensively advanced talents coming through the Detroit pipeline, and he's expected to continue his excellence at AHL Grand Rapids to open the upcoming season. Larkin possesses the size and hockey intelligence to eventually make an impact at the NHL level, perhaps as soon as the second half of this season if the Red Wings determine he's an upgrade over their existing second- or third-line options. He'll remain a staple of most prospects lists until he debuts with the Red Wings.
Looking for the next Ryan O’Reilly? You might just find him in Larkin. This guy is fast and super smart, and he just oozes leadership. Scouts aren’t sold on his offensive ceiling, but it’s hard to know where he’ll top out. Right now, he looks to pass first, second and third. But he has a good shot with a quick release. He already carries himself like a pro (read: chill and low maintenance) and he’ll be headed to the University of Michigan in the fall to learn from hockey legend Red Berenson. Wait on him in dynasty formats. But keep his name tucked away, as he could be a valuable, top-six fantasy contributor in a handful of seasons.
More Fantasy News
Scores on power play
CDetroit Red Wings
October 31, 2024
Larkin scored a power-play goal on two shots, added two PIM and went minus-3 in Wednesday's 6-2 loss to the Jets.
ANALYSIS
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Finds twine in win
CDetroit Red Wings
October 25, 2024
Larkin scored his fourth goal of the season on the power play in Thursday's 5-3 win over New Jersey.
ANALYSIS
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Finds twine on power play
CDetroit Red Wings
October 19, 2024
Larkin scored a power-play goal on two shots in Saturday's 5-2 win over the Predators.
ANALYSIS
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Scores lone goal in loss
CDetroit Red Wings
October 15, 2024
Larkin scored a goal on two shots and blocked two shots in Monday's 4-1 loss to the Rangers.
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Deposits empty-netter
CDetroit Red Wings
October 13, 2024
Larkin scored an empty-net goal on two shots and added two PIM in Saturday's 3-0 win over the Predators.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Will represent United States
CDetroit Red Wings
April 24, 2024
Larkin is expected to play for the United States at the IIHF World Championship in May.
ANALYSIS
Larkin supplied 69 points in 68 contests during the 2023-24 campaign, including a career-high 33 markers. He last served for Team USA in the 2019 World Championship, providing three goals and five points across seven appearances. He also helped America get a bronze medal in the 2018 World Championship by scoring three goals and nine points in 10 outings.
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