This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 58 takes place Saturday in Las Vegas, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $500k MMA Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
Main Event - Lightweight
Rafael dos Anjos (31-13-0) v. Rafael Fiziev (11-1-0)
DK Salaries: Dos Anjos ($7,200), Fiziev ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Dos Anjos (+170), Fiziev (-200)
Odds to Finish: +110
This one has been a long time coming. The UFC attempted to book dos Anjos and Fiziev on two separate occasions earlier this year, with the latter withdrawing both times, first due to visa issues and then due to a positive COVID-19 test.
Things were looking bleak for dos Anjos following a stretch in which he went 1-4 from June 2018 to January 2020, but he has since rebounded with back-to-back unanimous decision wins over Renato Moicano and Paul Felder. It's important to note that three of those four defeats came against Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington and Leon Edwards -- arguably the three best welterweights on the planet today. RDA is much better suited for lightweight duty, which is where he topped Moicano and Felder.
Fiziev might not have the resume of dos Anjos, but he represents a stiff test for the Brazilian. He has quietly racked up five straight wins since a surprising knockout defeat to Magomed Mustafaev in his UFC debut back in April 2019. Fiziev has gotten better and better each and every time we have seen him inside the Octagon. He's much better on the feet than the mat, and it's imperative he try to keep this fight standing.
Fiziev has proven to be a high-volume striker. He lands a whopping 5.35 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.57 per minute. That type of poor efficiency in terms of stand-up defense typically worries me. It's difficult to be effective against better competition when you are eating a strike in order to land two of your own. On the flip side, outside of the Mustafaev fight, Fiziev has been durable.
I'm curious to see is dos Anjos attempts to lean on his wrestling here. He averages 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes, but Fiziev's takedown defense is a ridiculous 95 percent. He has been taken down once in his entire UFC run, and that came in his last bout against Brad Riddell last December. RDA is going to have an edge on the mat, but I have my doubts that he can get this fight there against an opponent nearly a decade younger. A striking battle clearly favors Fiziev.
Fiziev deserves to be favored here, but his price seems a tad high. RDA is no pushover and he represents by far the best opponent Fiziev has seen to date. On the flip side, if Fiziev is as good as some think, he should win convincingly. I'm taking Fiziev to win, but RDA looks like a value play from a DraftKings standpoint.
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Fiziev
Bantamweight
Douglas Silva de Andrade (28-4-0, 1NC) v. Said Nurmagomedov (15-2-0)
DK Salaries: Silva de Andrade ($7,000), Nurmagomedov ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Silva de Andrade (+215), Nurmagoemdov (-255)
Odds to Finish: -175
Silva de Andrade has been with the UFC for about eight and a half years, posting a 6-4 record over that span. He's won his last two fights via stoppage and has a unanimous decision win over Marlon Vera on his resume. The Brazilian is an underrated athlete with legitimate power. He has 20 career victories via knockout, and more importantly, considering he just turned 37 years of age in June, has been stopped just once via strikes in his pro career.
Nurmagomedov is starting to find his footing with the company. He dropped a unanimous decision to Raoni Barcelos in December 2019 after winning his first two UFC bouts, but has since responded with back-to-back stoppage wins over Cody Stamann and Mark Striegl which lasted a combined 98 seconds.
I'm curious if Nurmagomedov's inactivity comes back to bite him. The win over Striegl came in October 2020, while the Stamann victory was in January 2022. In short, Said has fought for just over a minute and a half dating back to December 2019.
The power edge goes to Silva de Andrade, but Nurmagomedov should have an advantage in terms of both technical striking skills and volume. Neither man has had durability issues, so I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this fight is destined to see the final bell.
I view this fight very similarly to the main event. I've always been higher than consensus on Silva de Andrade. Nurmagomedov is probably the better fighter and he's nearly seven years younger, but again, the gap in salaries seems way too large. I'd feel much more comfortable using Said if he was more like $8700 or $8800. Toss in Nurmagomedov's inactivity and I can easily talk myself into getting behind Silva de Andrade as an underdog, even if I won't pick him outright.
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Nurmagomedov
Bantamweight
Michael Johnson (21-17-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (14-5-0)
DK Salaries: Johnson ($7,100), Mullarkey ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Johnson (+200), Mullarkey (-240)
Odds to Finish: -190
A highly-respected veteran who has been a member of the UFC roster since December 2010, Johnson saved his job with a second-round knockout win over Alan Patrick this past May. Johnson looked excellent in that bout, or Patrick looked dreadful, depending on your perspective. Either way, the win snapped a four-fight losing streak for Johnson and gave him some momentary breathing room. I'm a tad surprised he's hopping back into the Octagon so quickly, but Johnson has never been one to turn down a fight.
Mullarkey has been up-and-down over the course of his five-fight UFC run. He started with back-to-back unanimous decision defeats to Brad Riddell and Fares Ziam. He responded from those setbacks with back-to-back knockout wins over Khama Worthy and Devonte Smith before being knocked out himself by the underrated Jalin Turner this past March.
This has all the makings of a wild brawl for as long as it lasts. Both of these guys rely on their stand-up skills to be successful, although Mullarkey does average 3.38 takedowns per 15 minutes. I expect that number to come down considerably over time, while Johnson defends the takedown at a strong 78-percent clip.
The winner here figures to be the main who is able to remain upright and handle what his opponent throws his way. Johnson is clearly trending downwards, but this is still a guy who has been knocked out just twice in 38 professional fights, and those two setbacks came against Justin Gaethje and Josh Emmett. Of course, on the flip side, Turner looks like a future stud, so Mullarkey gets a pass for that performance.
I like Johnson as a long-shot Vegas bet -- he has a real chance to win here if he doesn't get knocked out -- but I ultimately can't back him outright. The victory over Patrick means nothing, and this is a guy who has been trending downwards for years. I don't love Mullarkey, but it doesn't take much to get past MJ these days.
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Mullarkey
Women's Flyweight
Cynthia Calvillo (9-4-1) v. Nina Nunes (10-7-0)
DK Salaries: Calvillo ($8,500), Nunes ($7,700)
Vegas Odds: Calvillo (-150), Nunes (+130)
Odds to Finish: +155
Calvillo got some hype early in her UFC run, but the truth of the matter is that she's shown no consistent skills during her time with the company outside of plenty of toughness. Calvillo has lost three fights in a row dating back to November 2020, including the last two via knockout. She's completely finished if her durability is legitimately starting to wane, and there's a case to be made she might be done regardless. I'd be shocked if she gets another opportunity with the company is she comes up short here.
Nunes hasn't been much better of late, coming off back-to-back losses to Mackenzie Dern (submission) and Tatiana Suarez (unanimous decision) on the heels of a four-fight winning streak. Nunes falls into the same category as Calvillo in the sense that she brings plenty of toughness to the table and not a heck of a lot else. Nunes doesn't have a knockout win since 2013, but unlike Calvillo, she has never been stopped via strikes in her pro career.
Calvillo would be smart to just fire repeated takedowns at Nunes in hopes she is able to use her upper-body strength to win at the point of attack. She's been so bad on the feet that trying to keep Nunes pinned to the mat for long stretches at a time might be her best chance of winning.
I view this as the very definition of a pick 'em. The tiny advantage Calvillo possesses in terms of physical skills are negated by her poor fight IQ. Say what you will about Nunes, but she doesn't beat herself.
This looks like a prime opportunity to back an underdog. Neither woman tends to accomplish a ton from a DraftKings scoring perspective, and I imagine that will continue here, but Calvillo has been a chronic underachiever, and Nunes can probably win this fight without accomplishing a whole heck of a lot. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this line shifts in Nunes' favor before the two step into the Octagon.
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Nunes
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Caio Borralho (11-1-0, 1NC) v. Armen Petrosyan (7-1-0)
DK Salaries: Borralho ($8,900), Petrosyan ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Borralho (-215), Petrosyan (+185)
Odds to Finish: -190
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Borralho
Heayvweight
Jared Vanderaa (12-8-0) v. Chase Sherman (15-10-0)
DK Salaries: Vanderaa ($8,600), Sherman ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Vanderaa (-180), Sherman (+155)
Odds to Finish: -180
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Vanderaa
Bantamweight
Aiemann Zahabi (8-2-0) v. Ricky Turcios (12-2-0)
DK Salaries: Zahabi ($7,400), Turcios ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Zahabi (+160), Turcios (-190)
Odds to Finish: +115
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Turcios
Women's Flyweight
Antonina Shevchenko (9-4-0) v. Cortney Casey (10-9-0)
DK Salaries: Shevchenko ($8,700), Casey ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Shevchenko (-180), Casey (+155)
Odds to Finish: +150
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Casey
Middleweight
Cody Brundage (7-2-0) v. Tresean Gore (4-1-0)
DK Salaries: Brundage ($7,900), Gore ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Brundage (+105), Gore (-125)
Odds to Finish: -130
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Gore
Light Heavyweight
Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-3-0) v. Karl Roberson (9-5-0)
DK Salaries: Nzechukwu ($8,200), Roberson ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Nzechukwu (-125), Robertson (+105)
Odds to Finish: -160
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Nzechukwu
Bantamweight
Ronnie Lawrence (8-1-0) v. Saidyokub Kakhramonov (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Lawrence ($8,400), Kakhramonov ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Lawrence (-135), Kakhramonov (+115)
Odds to Finish: +120
UFC VEGAS 58 PICK: Lawrence
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DK Sportsbook, if available. Check out the RotoWire MMA Betting section for the most up-to-date odds on all fighters.
