This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Fight Night takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $750k UFC 285 with $150k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Bantamweight
Petr Yan (16-4-0) v. Merab Dvalishvili (15-4-0)
DK Salaries: Yan ($9,200), Dvalishvili ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Yan (-275), Dvalishvili (+210)
Odds to Finish: +155
This is certainly one of the biggest non-title bantamweight fights the UFC can make at the moment. Both of these men are legitimate top-five fighters and future championship threats.
Yan, the best 135-pounder on the planet in the eyes of some, enters having somehow lost three of his last four. A deeper dive into those numbers is less concerning. The first defeat came via DQ in a title fight against Aljamain Sterling in March 2021. Yan was cruising to a dominant decision win before blasting Aljo with an illegal knee. He rebounded from that defeat to take a unanimous decision from Cory Sandhagen in an interim title fight that October. He lost a rematch to Sterling via split decision last April, before being a victim of one of the most horrific judges decisions in recent memory last October against Sean O'Malley. Simply put, there's no reason to think Yan has slipped in the least, but he still needs to figure out a way to win this fight.
Dvalishvili is arguably the hottest fighter in the division. A native of the country of Georgia who now lives on Long Island and trains with the Serra/Longo team (the same as Sterling), Merab lost each of his first two UFC bouts. He has won eight straight since, with the most recent being a unanimous decision over future Hall of Famer Jose Aldo last August. Dvalishvili turned 32 years of age this past January, so the UFC mine as well push him and let the chips fall where they may.
The main concern with Merab is that he's extremely reliant on his wrestling. He's averaging a ridiculous 6.54 takedowns per 15 minutes. Many people, myself included, felt he would struggle massive against a quality opponent if his takedowns weren't landing, but he failed on all 16 (!!!!) of his tries against Aldo and still won. That said, I expect him to continue to pressure Yan whenever he gets the chance. It won't be easy to get him to the mat, however, given Yan's 90 percent takedown defense.
As far as the stand-up goes, Yan figures to have a significant advantage. He's a much more accomplished and technical boxer. While Dvalishvili can get reckless at times on the feet, Yan is consistently aggressive and excellent at picking his spots. He's also been remarkably durable, although Merab isn't known for his fight-ending power.
I typically get really worried when a fighter is reliant on one elite skill to be successful. It often doesn't end when well if you are going up against high-end competition, and there's a case to be made Yan is the best out there at 135 pounds.
Could Merab land a handful of takedowns and keep Petr pinned to the mat for the better part of three rounds and win a decision? Sure, and the price seems like a value given he possesses a world-class skill. I'd still rather wage on Yan's all-around game. This wasn't a particularly difficult pick.
THE PICK: Yan
Co-Main Event - Heavyweight
Alexander Volkov (35-10-0) v. Alexandr Romanov (16-1-0)
DK Salaries: Volkov ($7,600), Romanov ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Volkov (+135), Romanov (-165)
Odds to Finish: -245
There's room for immediate and significant advancement in the UFC's heavyweight division, and up until his last fight, Romanov would have appeared to be in prime position to take advantage. The heavy-handed big man won each of his first five bouts with the company, with four coming via submission. Each of those wins came against lesser competition (Chase Sherman, Jared Vanderaa, Juan Espino, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Roque Martinez). Romanov got a considerably stiffer test last time out against Marcin Tybura. He started like a house of fire, nearly finishing Tybura in Round 1 before completely gassing out and crawling to the finish. It seemed for all the world a draw, with Romanov earning a 10-8 score in Round 1 and Tybura winning each of the final two rounds 10-9. Somehow, only one judge scored the opening frame 10-8 and Romanov emerged with a tough-luck, majority-decision defeat.
One thing that is for certain is the effort we saw from Romanov last time out isn't going to fly against a highly-experienced and talented veteran in Volkov. A former Bellator Heavyweight Champion, Volkov 5-4 in his last nine fights dating back to October 2018. A striker that relies on volume over power, Volkov has always been pretty good defensively for a fighter that spends so much time on the feet, and he at least has a clue on the mat. In short, he might not be a legitimate title contender at age 34, but he's a threat each and every time he steps into the Octagon.
I have zero idea what to make of Romanov moving forward. The power is obviously world-class. I expect him to once again go for broke in the early going in hopes of getting Volkov out of there. It may very well happen. If it doesn't, he's going to be in a world of trouble. Volkov has better cardio and a more well-rounded offensive game.
I don't understand the Vegas odds and DK salaries for this fight. Volkov could certainly find himself in a tough spot or two in the early going, but this is a man that has been knocked out just twice in 45 professional fights at heavyweight, so I would by no means say he has durability issues.
Romanov is especially tough to back against a quality opponent given the conditioning issues we saw against Tybura. Volkov is going to have a significant edge if this fight gets out of the first round, and nothing in his profile leads us to believe that won't happen.
THE PICK: Volkov
Light Heavyweight
Nikita Krylov (29-9-0) v. Ryan Spann (21-7-0)
DK Salaries: Krylov ($8,700), Spann ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Krylov (-175), Spann (+145)
Odds to Finish: -455
Krylov and Spann were scheduled to headline last week's event before Krylov fell ill moments before the card began. It's obviously nothing too serious, as the two were pushed back only a week.
Set to turn 31 years of age a couple weeks after this event takes place, Krylov will be looking for his third straight victory. He bounced back from a brief, two-fight losing streak to pick up a knockout of Alexander Gustafsson, in addition to a unanimous decision win over Volkan Oezdemir. Krylov has been wildly inconsistent over the course of his two stints with the UFC and has no history of defeating high-end competition, but he's clearly one of the better options in a division that drops off significantly after the first half-dozen or so names.
Spann finds himself in a similar predicament. His 80-second knockout victory over Dominick Reyes at Madison Square Garden last November looks great on paper, but Spann missed weight for that bout and had to forfeit 20 percent of his purse to Reyes simply in order for the fight to proceed. Spann has won seven of his first nine UFC bouts, so the results have been positive, but his past durability issues threaten to hamper his long-term upside.
Unlike most larger fighters, Spann does his best work on the mat. He has a dozen career submission victories compared to just a half-dozen knockouts. He lands and absorbs exactly 3.42 significant strikes per minute, both fairly low numbers for a light heavyweight.
Krylov unquestionably has more power than Spann. He's giving up two inches in both the height and reach department, but I would absolutely take Nikita in a back-and-forth fire fight. Krylov's biggest issue is that he has been prone to the submission in the past. Three of his past five defeats have come via tapout.
There's a clear path to victory for Spann if he is able to get Krylov in a compromising position on the mat, but it's important to keep in mind that Nikita has 15 career submission victories of his own. He's far from a slouch on the mat.
Ultimately, Spann would appear to provide some minor DK value given his suppressed price tag, but I'll roll with Krylov's all-around game and the fact he fights with more physicality than Spann.
THE PICK: Krylov
Bantamweight
Said Nurmagomedov (17-2-0) v. Jonathan Martinez (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Nurmagomedov ($9,100), Martinez ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Nurmagomeodv (-250), Martinez (+200)
Odds to Finish: +105
This one isn't getting a ton of attention, but it is unquestionably one of the more intriguing fights on a solid card.
The 30-year-old Nurmagomedov has been as-advertised since his July 2018 UFC debut. He's 6-1, with his most recent win, a submission triumph over Saidyokub Kakhramonov in mid-December, arguably his most impressive performance to date. He's displayed a solid all-around game and fights with plenty of physicality. I'm a fan.
Martinez is in the midst of his best run to date. A winner of four straight and six of his last seven, Jonathan is fresh off a knockout win over durable veteran Cub Swanson last October. A member of the UFC roster for nearly five and a half years, Martinez will be turning just 29 years of age in late-April. He's had a handful of fights in his pro career at both flyweight and featherweight, but it's pretty clear that bantamweight is his best option and should be his long-term home.
Nurmagomedov is the extremely rare Dagestani that isn't totally reliant on his wrestling game for success. Sure, he can mix in a takedown here and there, but Said is averaging just 0.52 takedowns per 15 minutes. With Martinez at 0.51, it seems highly likely this fight will be contested on the feet.
The growth we have seen from Martinez in recent years seems like a legitimate breakthrough in my eyes. He's always had the talent, but he's finally figured out how to put it all together on a consistent basis.
I think he's being underpriced here, but it's difficult to pick Martinez upright given the quality of opponent he is going up against. Nurmagomedov excels at forcing his opposition to fight his fight, and while I guess Martinez makes it competitive, I don't think it's quite enough for him to pull the upset.
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Other Bouts
Featherweight
Austin Lingo (9-1-0) v. Ricardo Ramos (16-4-0)
DK Salaries: Lingo ($6,700), Ramos ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Lingo (+260), Ramos (-350)
Odds to Finish: -125
THE PICK: Ramos
Light Heavyweight
Vitor Petrino (7-0-0) v. Anton Turkalj (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Petrino ($8,200), Turkalj ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Petrino (-110), Turkalj (-110)
Odds to Finish: -195
THE PICK: Petrino
Heavyweight
Karl Williams (7-1-0) v. Lukasz Brzeski (8-2-1, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Williams ($9,000), Brzeski ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Williams (-225), Brzeski (+180)
Odds to Finish: -135
THE PICK: Williams
Bantamweight
Raphael Assuncao (28-9-0) v. Davey Grant (14-6-0)
DK Salaries: Assuncao ($7,700), Grant ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Assunaco (+115), Grant (-140)
Odds to Finish: +120
THE PICK: Grant
Middleweight
Sedriques Dumas (7-0-0) v. Josh Fremd (9-4-0)
DK Salaries: Dumas ($8,800), Fremd ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Dumas (-190), Fremd (+150)
Odds to Finish: -300
THE PICK: Dumas
Bantamweight
Mario Bautista (11-2-0) v. Guido Cannetti (10-7-0)
DK Salaries: Bautista ($9,700), Cannetti ($6,500)
Vegas Odds: Bautista (-1100), Cannetti (+650)
Odds to Finish: -450
THE PICK: Bautista
Women's Flyweight
Ariane Lipski (14-8-0) v. JJ Aldrich (11-5-0)
DK Salaries: Lipski ($6,800), Aldrich ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Lipski (+290) Aldrich (-375)
Odds to Finish: +145
THE PICK: Aldrich
Bantamweight
Victor Henry (22-6-0) v. Tony Gravely (23-8-0)
DK Salaries: Henry ($8,400), Gravely ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Henry (-140), Gravely (+115)
Odds to Finish: +125
THE PICK: Gravely
Flyweight
Tyson Nam (21-12-1) v. Bruno Silva (12-5-2, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Nam ($7,300), Silva ($8,900)
Vegas Odds: Nam (+165), Silva (-200)
Odds to Finish: -155
THE PICK: Silva
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Fight Night 221 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
