DraftKings MMA: UFC Chicago Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC Chicago Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

The UFC makes their annual pilgrimage to Chicago on Saturday from the United Center.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Women's Bantamweight

Holly Holm (10-1-0) v. Valentina Shevchenko (12-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Holm ($11,000), Shevchenko ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Holm (-300), Shevchenko (+250)

It certainly wasn't her sharpest performance, but the bottom line is that Holm's inexperience on the mat cost her the UFC Women's Bantamweight Championship against Miesha Tate in March. That being said, Holm's all-around game has improved considerably since she entered the company. Her takedown defense (87 percent) has been elite, and we all know about her striking skills. Yet, she still struggles in grappling exchanges because she simply doesn't have the years of MMA training that many of the other women on the roster do.

Shevchenko took a split decision from Sarah Kaufman in her UFC debut in December, before dropping a unanimous decision to Amanda Nunes in March (on the same card in which Holm lost her title). The loss to Nunes was disappointing at the time, but it doesn't seem all that bad four months later with Nunes the new UFC Women's Bantamweight Champion. This fight has a ton of potential for fireworks because both of these women rely on their striking and little else. Shevchenko actually has more submission wins (five) than knockouts (four), but all those submission victories came against nobodies, and I would imagine that Bullet is well aware that her ground game is far from her biggest strength.

There is no reason to believe that this will be anything other than a kickboxing match, and in that, I think Holm is the clear choice. Still, I don't think either woman is a great DraftKings play. I can't recommend Shevchenko because I don't think she is going to win, and Holm will have a tough time returning value because this fight projects to be a long, drawn out affair.

THE PICK: Holm

Co-Main Event – Lightweight

Edson Barboza (17-4-0) v. Gilbert Melendez (22-5-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Barboza ($10,400), Melendez ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Barboza (-220), Melendez (+180)

Due to back-to-back losses and a year-long suspension due to a positive PED test, it's been nearly three years since Melendez has won a fight. It's a mind-blowing stat for the former two-time Strikeforce Lightweight Champion. While Melendez has been going through the roughest stretch of his career, Barboza has also struggled with consistency issues of late. He has rotated wins and losses in his last five fights, with victories over Bobby Green, Paul Felder, and Anthony Pettis, and losses to Michael Johnson and Tony Ferguson. Barboza is known as one of the most lethal strikers in the division, particularly in regards to his kicks, but he has a very underrated ground game. He has never shown any desire to use it, so I doubt he will rely on it here, but it must be reassuring for the Brazilian to know that he has that ability if need be. Melendez is at his best when he is aggressive on the feet, but getting into a kickboxing match with Barboza is a quick way to add an "L" to your record. I think Barboza is the pick here based on what we have seen from each guy lately, but Melendez is a decent DK value play. It's not often a fighter of his pedigree is available for $9,000.

THE PICK: Barboza

Women's Strawweight

Felice Herrig (10-6-0) v. Kailin Curran (4-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Herrig ($9,600), Curran ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Herrig (+100), Curran (-120)

This figures to be a close bout between two above-average 115-pounders. While they are both talented, neither are on the level of the top fighters in the division. You will never see me advocate for a healthy, 31-year-old to take 14 months off, but that was Herrig's decision following her latest fight - a unanimous decision loss to Paige VanZant in April 2015. A kickboxing and Muay Thai specialist, Herrig has spent her entire career beating up overmatched opponents and then getting whipped as soon as she is tasked with facing better competition. Herrig lost the first two fights of her career and her only four losses since then have come against VanZant, Carla Esparza, Tecia Torres, and Barb Honchak. Curran isn't on the level of those fighters, but she's no pushover. Curran got her first UFC win in her third attempt in her last fight against Emily Kagan in December. She has slowly gotten better each time out, which is exactly what a 25-year-old fighter is supposed to do. Curran is quick and athletic, and it is going to be imperative that she keeps moving and doesn't get into extended striking exchanges with Herrig. If Herrig hadn't taken so much time off, I may very well have picked her, but I get nervous whenever an aging fights sits on the sidelines for an extended period of time.

THE PICK: Curran

Bantamweight

Frankie Sanez (11-3-0) v. Eddie Wineland (21-11-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Saenz ($10,000), Wineland ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Saenz (-160), Wineland (+140)

It's been a rough, painful fall for Wineland - who was once the WEC Bantamweight Champion. Since the WEC/UFC merger, Wineland is 3-5 and has just one win since December 2012. A lot of that time has been spent fighting the best fighters in the world, but his game is undoubtedly going backwards. Wineland has been in an awful lot of battles for a 32-year-old. Wineland's great asset is his aggressiveness on the feet. He continuously pressures his opponents, although his chin has been questionable of late, which makes that style of fighting a difficult one to employ. Saenz had a seven-fight winning streak stopped in his last bout against Urijah Faber in December, but Saenz fought well in that bout and earned a ton of new fans for his performance, which went in the books as a unanimous-decision loss. Saenz is also a former Division I wrestler who has enough ability on the mat to keep his opponents honest. Saenz's ceiling is limited by his age (35), but he should have a couple more productive years left in him. Simply put, based on what I have seen over the past two-plus years, I trust Saenz more than Wineland. It's sad to say because he was a great fighter at one point, but Wineland may very well be done.

THE PICK: Saenz

Other Bouts


Heavyweight

Francis Ngannou (7-1-0) v. Bojan Mihajlovic (10-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Ngannou ($11,500), Mihajlovic ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Ngannou (-650), Mihajlovic (+475)
THE PICK: Ngannou

Featherweight

Darren Elkins (20-5-0) v. Godofredo Pepey (13-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Elkins ($10,300), Pepey ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Elkins (-185), Pepey (+160)
THE PICK: Elkins

Welterweight

Kamaru Usman (7-1-0) v. Alexander Yakovlev (23-6-1)
DraftKings Salaries: Usman ($10,800), Yakovlev ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Usman (-230), Yakovlev (+190)
THE PICK: Yakovlev

Lightweight

Michel Prazeres (19-2-0) v. J.C. Cottrell (17-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Prazeres ($10,900), Cottrell ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Prazeres (-235), Cottrell (+195)
THE PICK: Prazeres

Welterweight

Alex Oliveira (13-3-1, 1NC) v. James Moontasri (9-3-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Oliveira ($10,700), Moontasri ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Oliveira (-230), Moontasri (+190)
THE PICK: Oliveira

Welterweight

Hector Urbina (25-9-0) v. George Sullivan (17-5-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries: Urbina ($8,900), Sullivan ($10,500)
Vegas Odds: Urbina (+170), Sullivan (-200)
THE PICK: Sullivan

Featherweight

Jim Alers (13-2-0, 1NC) v. Jason Knight (16-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alers ($10,600), Knight ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Alers (-220), Knight (+180)
THE PICK: Knight

Heavyweight

Luis Henrique (8-2-0, 1NC) v. Dmitry Smolyakov (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Henrique ($9,300), Smolyakov ($10,100)
Vegas Odds: Henrique (+140), Smolyakov (-160)
THE PICK: Smolyakov

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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