DraftKings MMA: UFC 194 Preview

DraftKings MMA: UFC 194 Preview

This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.

Arguably the biggest card in UFC history, headlined by arguably the biggest fight in UFC history, is coming your way this Saturday from Las Vegas.

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests. Players get a $50,000 budget to select five fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:

Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Advance (ADVC): +1 PT
Takedown (TD): +2 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +2 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +3 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +100 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +50 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +25 PTS

Scoring Notes
Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.

Advances include: To Half Guard, To Side Control, To Mount, To Back Control

Now, on to the fights...

Main Event – Featherweight Championship

(C) Jose Aldo (25-1-0) v. (IC) Conor McGregor (18-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Aldo ($9,500), McGregor ($9,900)
Vegas Odds: Aldo (+110), McGregor (-130)

We've waited a long time, but it's finally here. I don't think there have ever been two fighters in UFC history who dislike each other as much as these two guys. We have all seen the press conferences and the television appearances, so I'm going to attempt to break this down this matchup from a fighting standpoint. It isn't easy. Aldo hasn't fought since October 2014 due to various nagging injuries. Some people may think that will have an impact on this fight, but it shouldn't. It seems like fighters frequently go a year-plus between fights and it's difficult to believe that an athlete of Aldo's caliber won't be ready to go for the biggest fight of his career. Aldo is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he rarely uses his ground game. He tends to stand on the feet and destroy his opponents with strikes, most notably with his devastating leg kicks. All of his opponents know what is coming, but no one has been able to stop it. McGregor's wrestling is underrated, but it's hard to believe that he plans to use it in this fight. He figures to be so jacked up that I fully expect him to stand in front of Aldo and try to violently knock him out. Conor has shown remarkable striking skills. He lands punches and kicks from remarkably unorthodox angles. Extremely athletic and flexible, McGregor will tilt his body and fire shots from positions that his opponents have problems seeing clearly. Conor knocked out Chad Mendes, Dustin Poirier and Denis Siver, and he easily took a unanimous decision from Max Holloway. The guy is the real deal. McGregor tends to land more shots on the feet, but Aldo is better defensively. Conor got hit in the Mendes fight. His chin held up, especially during the sequences he spent on his back. I guess we're at the point in which I have to pick a winner. First let me say that I would not be surprised if either guy won. And I would not be surprised if either guy won impressively. Both Aldo and McGregor have this aura of seeming invincibility around them, and each fighter has the skills to put his opponent to sleep. I'm taking nothing away from McGregor. His run to the top has been unlike anything in MMA history. He has combined supreme fighting ability with unprecedented microphone skills, but I still think emotion can get the best of him. I think he only knows one way of fighting, that being to stand in front of his opponent and to try to knock him out in highlight reel fashion. Aldo has been a pro since August 2004 and he hasn't lost in over a decade. The list of guys he's beaten is a who's who of MMA royalty: Mendes twice, Frankie Edgar, Ricardo Lamas, Urijah Faber, Kenny Florian, Cub Swanson, Mark Hominick, Mike Brown. In a sport where the shelf life for top fighters seems to be dwindling by the day, Aldo has been the one constant. Seemingly unbeatable fighters like Anderson Silva and Ronda Rousey were toppled. Even dominant champions like Jon Jones and Georges St. Pierre no longer hold their titles for different reasons. But Aldo is still here. In the end, I just can't bet against the guy who has defied the odds for over a decade. If McGregor wins, I'll stand and tip my cap. But as the old saying goes: "To be the man, you have to beat the man."
THE PICK: Aldo

Co-Main Event – Middleweight Championship

(C) Chris Weidman (13-0-0) v. Luke Rockhold (14-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Weidman ($10,000), Rockhold ($9,400)
Vegas Odds:Weidman (-150), Rockhold (+130)

Aldo and McGregor are getting all the headlines, but this is another fight that is simply as good as it gets in the middleweight division. This is easily going to be Weidman's biggest challenge. I think if he can get past Rockhold, he has a chance to hold onto the title for a real extended period of time. Most people think of Rockhold as being considerably bigger than Weidman, but I don't think the size difference is as big as it's being made out to be. Weidman took a serious flurry of punishment from Vitor Belfort in his last fight, and he got beaten up pretty good in the Lyoto Machida fight prior. His chin held up just fine, but he desperately needs to avoid being in that position against Rockhold. Rockhold has the better submission skills of the two, but to no one's surprise, Weidman is the far better wrestler. There's no doubt that Rockhold worked on his wrestling with teammate and light heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier at American Kickboxing Academy for this fight, but he just simply isn't on Weidman's level. A substantial portion of this fight is going to be spent on the feet, but Weidman would be best served to use his takedown ability to his advantage. This is another very close fight that could easily go either way. The odds and DK salaries are so close that I don't think it would be wrong to put either of these fighters in a daily lineup. I like Weidman, but not by much. Rockhold has the skills to win this fight.
THE PICK: Weidman

Middleweight

Jacare Souza (22-3-0, 1NC) v. Yoel Romero (10-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Souza ($10,200), Romero ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Souza (-150), Romero (+130)

Barring some unforeseen circumstances, the winner of this fight is going to get the next middleweight title shot against the winner of the Weidman/Rockhold fight. This is again one of several fights on this card that feature two fighters with little separating the two. I think Romero is the better striker, or at least the one with more knockout power, but I'm not convinced that the majority of this fight will be spent on the feet. Both of these guys are terrific wrestlers. Romero's takedown defense tends to be better than Jacare's, but Romero's big problem is that he is going to be massively outclassed on the ground. Souza is one of the most gifted submission artists in the middleweight division and Romero is going to be in immediate jeopardy if this fight ends up on the mat. I would probably pick Romero in a boxing match, but there's no way that Jacare is going to stand in front of him for 15 minutes. He's been in too many big fights and he always comes in with a good game plan. People talk about Jacare being 35 years old, but no one ever mentions that Romero is already 38. I can't see picking Jacare in a title fight against either Weidman or Rockhold (Rockhold took a unanimous decision from Souza in September 2011), but I think he has enough left in the tank to finish off Romero.
THE PICK: Souza

Welterweight

Demian Maia (21-6-0) v. Gunner Nelson (14-1-1)
DraftKings Salaries:Maia ($10,100), Nelson ($9,300)
Vegas Odds: Maia (-145), Nelson (+125)

Die-hard MMA fans understand just how blessed we are to see this matchup between two of the most talented submission artists in the world. It looked bleak for Maia after back-to-back losses to Jake Shields and Rory MacDonald in late 2013 and early 2014, but he has since bounced backed with three straight wins. His last victory was as dominant of a ground performance as one will ever see in a submission win over Neil Magny last August. Nelson looked lousy in a decision loss, the first of his career, to Rick Story in October of last year, but he also rebounded with a quick first round submission win over Brandon Thatch in July. I think Nelson actually has the ground skills to compete with Maia, which is saying a ton, but I'm worried about Nelson's wrestling. He's racked up his share of takedowns in the UFC, but his takedown defense has always been a bit shaky. If Maia is able to plant him on his back easily, Nelson is going to be in trouble. Nelson also tends to be very methodical on the feet, so it will be interesting to see if a true veteran like Maia will try and go after him early. Again, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nelson won, but it just seems like Maia can do everything Nelson can just a bit better.
THE PICK: Maia

Featherweight

Max Holloway (14-3-0) v. Jeremy Stephens (24-11-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Holloway ($10,900), Stephens ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Holloway (-550), Stephens (+425)

This is the only fight on the main card that I feel comfortable picking. Holloway has won seven straight fights including victories over Cub Swanson and Charles Oliveira. The 24-year-old Hawaiian just keeps getting better. Holloway throws a lot of strikes, lands a lot of strikes, and exhibits terrific footwork. On the other side, Stephens is no slouch. After back-to-back losses to Swanson and Oliveira, Stephens rebounded to defeat Dennis Bermudez in a back and forth fight in which both fighters inflicted a ton of damage on the feet. The one area that Stephens has the advantage is in one-punch knockout power. Stephens is one of the most powerful men in the 145-pound division and he can end a fight in an instant. Stephens has done well throughout his career in fight that he was supposed to win, but he has struggled against better competition. Holloway, especially these days, certainly qualifies as better competition. Stephens' DK salary is low enough that putting him in your lineup and praying for a one-punch knockout isn't the worst idea in the world, but it's hard to see how he wins this fight if that one big punch doesn't land.
THE PICK: Holloway

Other Bouts

Bantamweight

Urijah Faber (32-8-0) v. Frankie Saenz (11-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Faber ($11,000), Saenz ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Faber (-700), Saenz (+500)
THE PICK: Faber

Women's Strawweight

Tecia Torres (6-0-0) v. Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Torres ($10,700), Jones-Lybarger ($8,700)
Vegas Odds: Torres (-275), Jones-Lybarger (+235)
THE PICK: Torres

Welterweight

Warlley Alves (10-0-0) v. Colby Covington (8-0-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Alves ($9,600), Covington ($9,800)
Vegas Odds: Alves (-105), Covington (-115)
THE PICK: Covington

Lightweight

Leonardo Santos (14-4-1) v. Kevin Lee (11-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries: Santos ($8,600), Lee ($10,800)
Vegas Odds: Santos (+450), Lee (-600)
THE PICK: Lee

Lightweight

Joe Proctor (11-3-0) v. Magomed Mustafaev (12-1-0)
DraftKings Salaries:Proctor ($8,800), Mustafaev ($10,600)
Vegas Odds: Proctor (+270), Mustafaev (-330)
THE PICK: Mustafaev

Lightweight

John Makdessi (12-4-0) v. Yancy Medeiros (11-3-0, 1NC)
DraftKings Salaries:Makdessi ($10,300), Medeiros ($9,100)
Vegas Odds: Makdessi (-165), Medeiros (+145)
THE PICK: Medeiros

Welterweight

Court McGee (16-4-0) v. Marcio Alexandre (13-2-0)
DraftKings Salaries: McGee ($10,400), Alexandre ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: McGee (-175), Alexandre (+155)
THE PICK: McGee

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only MMA Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire MMA fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
MMA Expert Picks: UFC 309 Main Card
MMA Expert Picks: UFC 309 Main Card
UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
UFC 309 Jones vs. Miocic DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC 309
MMA Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for UFC 309
DraftKings MMA: UFC 309 DFS Preview
DraftKings MMA: UFC 309 DFS Preview
UFC Vegas 100 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Vegas 100 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
UFC Vegas 100 Magny vs. Prates DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes
UFC Vegas 100 Magny vs. Prates DFS Analysis: Drake's Takes