This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Valspar Championship – Palm Harbor, FL
Innisbrook Resort - Copperhead (7,340 yards, par 71)
$6.5M Purse
$1,170,000 and 500 FedEx Cup points to the winner
Tournament Preview
After a trip to Mexico City, the PGA Tour traverses back to resume the Florida Swing near Tampa, FL for the Valspar Championship. Though in the past the venerable Innisbrook venue has been a break for many top players, this week it attracts plenty of household names. Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia, Rory McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson headline what is likely the best field this event has ever seen. Innisbrook Copperhead course requires plenty of precision, blending tree-lined fairways and rolling terrain with a few well-placed manmade ponds. Contributing to the difficulty are five par-3s playing 195 yards or longer and many long par-4 holes over 420 yards. Saving the best for last, the venomous "Snake Pit" awaits the players' final three holes as one of the toughest scoring stretches on the PGA Tour. Look for plenty of drama to unfold late Sunday and the eventual winner to slither through the final holes unscathed, much unlike the rest of the field.
Recent Past Champions
2017 – Adam Hadwin
2016 – Charl Schwartzel
2015 – Jordan Spieth
2014 – John Senden
2013 – Kevin Streelman
2012 – Luke Donald
2011 – Gary Woodland
2010 – Jim Furyk
2009 – Retief Goosen
2008 – Sean O'Hair
Key Stats to Winning this Week
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
• Driving Accuracy
• GIR Percentage from 175+ yards
Champion's Profile
On such a fair and tough layout, tee-to-green play is critical and therefore the most important stat this week. Nothing replaces hitting plenty of fairways and greens, because danger lurks everywhere at Innisbrook once you get off the fairways. Said concisely, positioning is the key at Copperhead. If players miss greens they must miss in the correct spot to save par consistently or they will make too many bogeys to contend. The weather forecast is calling for rain much of the week, so long hitters who are strategic and hit plenty of fairways and greens will enjoy a greater advantage than normal. However, if conditions become too testy, a few short game gurus who can string together pars could put themselves in contention.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Jordan Spieth, $12400 – Making his return after a one-year hiatus to Innisbrook, Spieth appears to be turning a corner on his form. He's easily the top gun this week, having never finished outside the top-20 in four career starts. Start Spieth with confidence but know he comes with a high price tag.
Sergio Garcia, $12000 – Sergio will make his first start on the Gulf Coast since 2013 this week, but don't let his lack of experience here keep you away – he's a perfect fit for this golf course. Coming off a tie for seventh in Mexico last week, Sergio is firing on all cylinders.
Rory McIlroy, $11800 – Though I'm a bit hesitant on McIlroy, his value appears to be solid this week at a ball striker's venue. If his driving is top notch as it usually is, McIlroy will put himself in position for a top-10 and perhaps more. If he's a bit off, this golf course could send him packing on Friday. Treat him as a risk-reward option if you dare.
Henrik Stenson, $11600 – Stenson has been the top gun in this field in each of the past few years, but now with steady competition ahead of him, he'll need to up his game to vie for a title. He's been top-11 in each of his three starts here, so start with confidence even though he's rested from competition the last month.
Longer Shots Worth a Risk
Tony Finau, $10800 – Finau led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last season en route to a top-5 finish. As one of the longest players in the field, he's equipped to get in position for another top-5. If Finau can scramble well when he missed greens, he'll for sure find himself in the hunt Sunday.
Adam Hadwin, $10200 – Last year's titleholder enters in strong form but will have plenty of attention as defending champion, so expect a slight drop off from last season. At $10,200, though, he's still a solid player to fit in your lineup.
Tiger Woods, $9700 – After a revival week at the Honda Classic two weeks ago, Woods appears to be in good form and ready to put himself in the hunt again. Though he'll be unfamiliar at Innisbrook, Tiger is strategic enough to navigate this tricky venue. He just needs to miss in the proper spots.
Byeong-Hun An, $9400 – Though An has just a T49 to his name from last season, his form has me excited with top-6s in two of his last three starts with another top-25 blended in. An will slip under the radar for many, but this is exactly the type of player you want in your lineup to differentiate in a tournament format. Take a chance on An and you won't be disappointed.
Strategy Tips for this week (based on 60k standard salary cap)
With its deepest field in history, don't get too caught up in snagging studs and settling for low-priced fillers at Innisbrook. Building a balanced lineup of solid ball strikers and perhaps a few great scrambling artists is a prudent play. More so than other weeks, picking six players who all make the cut can produce a huge advantage in tournament play on such a tough track.
