Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly

37-Year-Old PitcherSP
Arizona Diamondbacks
15-Day IL
Injury Ribs
Est. Return 4/13/2026
2026 Stats
W-L
0-0
ERA
0.00
WHIP
0.00
K
0
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
W-L
ERA
WHIP
K
SV
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2026 Fantasy Outlook
Kelly had a successful return from his shortened 2024 season, resuming his previous levels of production while pitching for both Arizona and Texas last season. Kelly is an unusual pitcher in this day and age because his most frequently used pitch is his change-up, but he throws five other pitches as well. What Kelly lacks in velocity he makes up for in command of that deep arsenal of pitches, and looks to set up hitters for that change-up by keeping them off-balance throughout the count. Home runs have been an issue for him nearly every season due to his lack of velocity, but the lack of walks helps offset some of that damage. While Kelly isn't shiny, he has won double-digit games in three of the past four seasons. Kelly's ERA since the start of the 2021 season is better than the likes of Cease, Gallen, Ryan, Taillon and Pivetta over the same period of time, while he ranks 19th in innings worked despite the time missed in 2024 with the shoulder problems. Kelly re-signed with Arizona during the offseason, providing him a soft and familiar landing for fantasy managers. Read Past Outlooks
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RANKS
Rest of Season
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Overall Rank
#Subscriber-Only
Dynasty
From Preseason
#256
ADP
League Majors
Bats R
Throws R
40 Man Yes
Height 6'2"
Weight 210
DOB 10/14/1988
Born Houston, TX
College Arizona State
Drafted 8th Rd 2010 TB
Signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the Diamondbacks in December of 2025. Contract includes $500,000 trade-assignment bonus and $12 million vesting option for 2028 with 170 innings pitched in 2027 or $14 million vesting option for 2028 with 185 innings pitched in 2027.
Officially moved to IL
PArizona Diamondbacks
Ribs
March 25, 2026
The Diamondbacks placed Kelly on the 15-day injured list Wednesday due to left intercostal nerve irritation.
Analysis
While Kelly won't be part of the Arizona's Opening Day rotation, he may need to miss only two or three turns before making his 2026 debut. Despite being set back by the injury in camp, Kelly was able to make three starts during spring training and most recently covered 52 pitches and two-plus innings Monday. He's expected to build on that workload in a rehab start with Triple-A Reno on April 3 and is tentatively scheduled for another minor-league tuneup outing April 8 before likely returning from the IL thereafter.
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Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2026
No Stats
2025
 
 
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2024
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2024vs Left .225 559 104 45 115 25 4 23
Since 2024vs Right .235 489 126 22 109 26 0 11
2026vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Left .222 399 81 29 82 19 3 17
2025vs Right .229 349 86 19 75 16 0 6
2024vs Left .234 160 23 16 33 6 1 6
2024vs Right .250 140 40 3 34 10 0 5
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
 
 
-3%
ERA at Home
2026
No Stats
2025
 
 
-7%
ERA at Home
2024
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2024Home 3.62 1.19 136.2 8 6 0 8.3 2.7 1.3
Since 2024Away 3.72 1.06 121.0 9 4 0 7.7 1.9 1.0
2026Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2026Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Home 3.40 1.20 98.0 6 5 0 8.7 2.9 1.2
2025Away 3.66 1.01 86.0 6 4 0 7.5 1.7 1.0
2024Home 4.19 1.16 38.2 2 1 0 7.2 2.1 1.6
2024Away 3.86 1.17 35.0 3 0 0 8.2 2.6 1.0
More Splits→ View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Merrill Kelly compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
3.48
 
K/9
8.2
 
BB/9
2.3
 
HR/9
1.1
 
Fastball
92.0 mph
 
ERA
3.52
 
WHIP
1.11
 
BABIP
.276
 
GB/FB
1.29
 
Left On Base
72.9%
 
Exit Velocity
82.9 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
5.5%
 
Spin Rate
2320 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
27.6%
 
Swinging Strike
11.0%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Merrill Kelly See More
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Before an early shoulder injury sidelined Kelly from mid-April to August, the right-hander was headed for a second consecutive impressive season, posting a 2.19 ERA over four starts. He had less success (4.96 ERA) following his return, but most of the damage was in August, and Kelly was back on form in September. Kelly finished with a greater HR/9 and struck out fewer batters in 2024, but when a pitcher misses four months, one should resist making judgments based on ratios/results and instead focus on the injury, which altered his pitch mix. Kelly threw more cutters and changeups than four-seamers for the first time in his career; however, he pitched well when healthy in April and September, putting him on a path for a normal winter of preparation. The Diamondbacks have confidence that the 36-year-old will return to his 2023 iteration (3.29 ERA, 9.5 K/9) and picked up his option.
Kelly's ratios were nearly equivalent to his breakthrough 2022 season, but he took a different path to get there. Last season, Kelly fanned a career best 25.9 percent of batters he faced, but he also walked them at a 9.6 percent clip, the highest mark of his career. However, the 16.3 percent K-BB% was his best in a full season. Kelly didn't change his pitch mix much, other than throwing a slider a bit and it was effective. His changeup was offering chiefly driving the increase in strikeouts. Despite posting strong ratios in 2022, Kelly wasn't trusted since he didn't miss many bats. Fast forward a year and Kelly is no longer a secret after fanning well more than a batter an inning and enjoying a strong playoff run. He's likely going to be drafted around 100 picks earlier this season, which puts him in risky territory, since that assumes Kelly continues to punch out hitters at the same rate. Don't shy away from Kelly, but don't expect a repeat of last season's newfound dominance.
This past season may go down as a career year for Kelly, but that's not to say he's unworthy of consideration for 2023. It will just be tough for him to repeat that level of run prevention over 200 innings. When he's on, Kelly can keep hitters guessing with his diverse repertoire -- he throws his four-seamer, changeup, cutter, sinker and curveball all at least 13% of the time. The stuff has not translated to strikeouts since Kelly made the jump from the Korea Baseball Organization years ago (career 20.8 K%), but he limits walks and can induce manageable contact for the defense behind him. Now 34 years old, Kelly may be on the verge of some age-related decline. Add in that he was pitching over his skis last season and Kelly seems likely to be overlooked in many leagues. Be ready to cut bait if the performance craters, but Kelly is very much in the mix to stream in favorable matchups to begin the season.
Kelly defied the odds with a successful return following surgery to remedy Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Successful is relative, meaning Kelly exhibited nearly identical skills to 2019, his last full, healthy campaign. However, those skills translate to a below average pitcher with a pedestrian strikeout rate, supported by a mediocre 9% swinging strike mark. Kelly throws five pitches with only his curve (12.5%) and changeup (17.5%) topping a double-digit swinging strike level, but combined he throws them about one-third of the time. A tweak in mix could miss more bats, but even if it manifested, the impact isn't worth chasing in Kelly's age-34 campaign. Sure, take a shot in draft and hold, but there are better options for a roster spot in standard formats.
Kelly had a decent return to stateside baseball in 2019 after a successful KBO career, and was having a rather nice start to 2020 until something did not feel right five starts into the season. Examinations revealed Thoracic Outlet Syndrome which required surgery in September. The track record of full recovery from the surgery is not great -- just ask Tyson Ross, Matt Harvey, Mike Foltynewicz and Alex Cobb among others. Yet, Arizona still picked up Kelly's $5.25 million option for 2021 believing that Kelly will make a full recovery and be a contributor in some capacity. You do not need to make any sort of investment in the pitcher until you see some positive results from his post-surgery self. A first-year return to a similar skill level is incredibly unlikely.
Kelly, who signed with Arizona last December following a four-year stint in the KBO, led the Diamondbacks with 183.1 innings in 2019, though he struggled with consistency, going 13-14 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 32 starts. Kelly allowed too much loud contact (9.5 Barrel% and 42.2 Hard%), which, coupled with his flyball tendencies, resulted in a 1.4 HR/9. He also showed noticeable home/away splits, performing much better at home -- likely due in part to Chase Field's humidor. The righty flashed an uptick in velocity in his first four starts in September, resulting in a 1.00 ERA and 9.3 K/9. His final start of the year was not so pretty, but it was a strong finish overall and that should have him pretty well locked into a rotation spot for 2020. Keep an eye on his velocity in spring training, because if Kelly maintains the increased velo, he could be a significant profit earner as a late-round pick.
Kelly signed with Arizona and will get a chance to win a spot in the starting rotation after three seasons playing in South Korea's top professional league. An eighth-round draft pick by Tampa Bay, he got as far as Triple-A, where he had a 2.76 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in 2014, before going overseas. Kelly thrived in the KBO with a 3.80 ERA in four seasons while leading the SK Wyverns to the 2017 championship. His 4.09 ERA from 2017 doesn't look great, but it ranked in the top 10 in a hitter-friendly league, and he had a 9.0 K/9 with outstanding control (2.1 BB/9). Kelly says his velocity improved while in South Korea to the low-90s from the high-80s while in Triple-A. He'll be trying to make a unique transition as few players have moved to Major League Baseball from the KOB, and he's also doing so without any major-league experience. He's a fantasy baseball wild card.
More Fantasy News
Rehab schedule mapped out
PArizona Diamondbacks
Ribs
March 25, 2026
Kelly (back) is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game on the back fields of extended spring training Saturday, Alex Weiner of ArizonaSports.com reports.
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Expected to need rehab start
PArizona Diamondbacks
Back
March 23, 2026
Kelly (back) will make a rehab start at Triple-A Reno before being reinstated from the 15-day injured list, Jose M. Romero of The Arizona Republic reports.
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Headed to injured list
PArizona Diamondbacks
Back
March 21, 2026
The Diamondbacks will place Kelly (back) on the 15-day injured list to begin the regular season, Alex D'Agostino of SI.com reports.
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Makes second spring start
PArizona Diamondbacks
Back
March 19, 2026
Kelly (back) allowed two runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in Wednesday's spring start against the Cubs.
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Expects IL stint
PArizona Diamondbacks
March 14, 2026
Kelly (back) said Friday that he expects to be on the injured list to open the regular season, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com reports.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
NYM could look at him
PFree Agent
December 8, 2025
The Mets could be interested in signing Kelly, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic.
Analysis
It's unclear if both parties have started talking, but Kelly would fit as a potential upgrade for the rotation if the Mets decide to look at other options instead of the top trio of Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai. Kelly had a 3.52 ERA in 32 regular-season starts in 2025.
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