2026 Stats
W-L
5-3
ERA
5.25
WHIP
1.42
K
31
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
Kelly had a successful return from his shortened 2024 season, resuming his previous levels of production while pitching for both Arizona and Texas last season. Kelly is an unusual pitcher in this day and age because his most frequently used pitch is his change-up, but he throws five other pitches as well. What Kelly lacks in velocity he makes up for in command of that deep arsenal of pitches, and looks to set up hitters for that change-up by keeping them off-balance throughout the count. Home runs have been an issue for him nearly every season due to his lack of velocity, but the lack of walks helps offset some of that damage. While Kelly isn't shiny, he has won double-digit games in three of the past four seasons. Kelly's ERA since the start of the 2021 season is better than the likes of Cease, Gallen, Ryan, Taillon and Pivetta over the same period of time, while he ranks 19th in innings worked despite the time missed in 2024 with the shoulder problems. Kelly re-signed with Arizona during the offseason, providing him a soft and familiar landing for fantasy managers. Read Past Outlooks
Signed a two-year, $40 million contract with the Diamondbacks in December of 2025. Contract includes $500,000 trade-assignment bonus and $12 million vesting option for 2028 with 170 innings pitched in 2027 or $14 million vesting option for 2028 with 185 innings pitched in 2027.
Grabs fourth consecutive win
Kelly (5-3) earned the win Monday against the Giants, allowing two runs on four hits and two walks while striking out four over seven innings.
Analysis
Kelly turned in another strong outing, tossing 64 of his 96 pitches for strikes while generating 25 combined called and swinging strikes. The veteran right-hander allowed both of his runs in the fourth inning on a two-run double by Rafael Devers, but otherwise kept San Francisco quiet. Kelly has now delivered four straight quality starts, allowing just seven runs over his last 29 innings for a 2.17 ERA during that stretch. Despite the recent success, the underlying metrics remain concerning, as Kelly still ranks in the bottom one percent of MLB in xERA, xSLG and xBA. He now owns a 5.25 ERA with a 31:20 K:BB across eight starts and is scheduled to face Seattle on Sunday.
Kelly turned in another strong outing, tossing 64 of his 96 pitches for strikes while generating 25 combined called and swinging strikes. The veteran right-hander allowed both of his runs in the fourth inning on a two-run double by Rafael Devers, but otherwise kept San Francisco quiet. Kelly has now delivered four straight quality starts, allowing just seven runs over his last 29 innings for a 2.17 ERA during that stretch. Despite the recent success, the underlying metrics remain concerning, as Kelly still ranks in the bottom one percent of MLB in xERA, xSLG and xBA. He now owns a 5.25 ERA with a 31:20 K:BB across eight starts and is scheduled to face Seattle on Sunday.
Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
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Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
95
Last 10 Games
95
Last 5 Games
94
How many pitches does Merrill Kelly generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Merrill Kelly generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
-3%
BAA vs LHP
2026
Even Split
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024vs Left | .231 | 116 | 58 | 142 | 28 | |||
| Since 2024vs Right | .239 | 145 | 29 | 130 | 14 | |||
| 2026vs Left | .260 | 12 | 13 | 27 | 5 | |||
| 2026vs Right | .259 | 19 | 7 | 21 | 3 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .222 | 81 | 29 | 82 | 17 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .229 | 86 | 19 | 75 | 6 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .234 | 23 | 16 | 33 | 6 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .250 | 40 | 3 | 34 | 5 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
Even Split
2026
-25%
ERA on Road
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024Home | 3.92 | 1.23 | 154.0 | 8.2 | 2.7 | ||||
| Since 2024Away | 3.92 | 1.11 | 151.2 | 7.1 | 2.4 | ||||
| 2026Home | 6.23 | 1.56 | 17.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | ||||
| 2026Away | 4.70 | 1.34 | 30.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 | ||||
| 2025Home | 3.40 | 1.20 | 98.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | ||||
| 2025Away | 3.66 | 1.01 | 86.0 | 7.5 | 1.7 | ||||
| 2024Home | 4.19 | 1.16 | 38.2 | 7.2 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2024Away | 3.86 | 1.17 | 35.0 | 8.2 | 2.6 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Merrill Kelly compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
1.55K/9
5.8BB/9
3.8HR/9
1.5Fastball
92.0 mphERA
5.25WHIP
1.42BABIP
.277GB/FB
0.98Left On Base
70.4%Exit Velocity
85.3 mphBarrels/BBE
11.4%Spin Rate
2287 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
31.9%Swinging Strike
10.9%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Before an early shoulder injury sidelined Kelly from mid-April to August, the right-hander was headed for a second consecutive impressive season, posting a 2.19 ERA over four starts. He had less success (4.96 ERA) following his return, but most of the damage was in August, and Kelly was back on form in September. Kelly finished with a greater HR/9 and struck out fewer batters in 2024, but when a pitcher misses four months, one should resist making judgments based on ratios/results and instead focus on the injury, which altered his pitch mix. Kelly threw more cutters and changeups than four-seamers for the first time in his career; however, he pitched well when healthy in April and September, putting him on a path for a normal winter of preparation. The Diamondbacks have confidence that the 36-year-old will return to his 2023 iteration (3.29 ERA, 9.5 K/9) and picked up his option.
More Fantasy News
Earns third straight win
Kelly (4-3) allowed three runs on eight hits with four strikeouts and no walks to earn the win Wednesday over the Giants.
Analysis
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Tosses complete game
Kelly (3-3) tossed a complete game in Friday's win over the Rockies, allowing one run on four hits while striking out three without a walk over nine innings.
Analysis
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Rebounds for second win
Kelly (2-3) allowed one run on three hits and three walks while striking out six over seven innings to earn the win over the Mets on Saturday.
Analysis
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Hammered for six runs in loss
Kelly (1-3) took the loss Sunday against the Cubs, allowing six runs on eight hits and three walks with five strikeouts across 4.1 innings.
Analysis
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Struggles with command again
Kelly (1-2) took the loss Tuesday against the Brewers, allowing five runs on six hits and five walks while striking out one over five innings.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
NYM could look at him
The Mets could be interested in signing Kelly, according to Will Sammon of The Athletic.
Analysis
It's unclear if both parties have started talking, but Kelly would fit as a potential upgrade for the rotation if the Mets decide to look at other options instead of the top trio of Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai. Kelly had a 3.52 ERA in 32 regular-season starts in 2025.
It's unclear if both parties have started talking, but Kelly would fit as a potential upgrade for the rotation if the Mets decide to look at other options instead of the top trio of Ranger Suarez, Framber Valdez and Tatsuya Imai. Kelly had a 3.52 ERA in 32 regular-season starts in 2025.