This article is part of our Survivor series.
For the second week in a row, the biggest Survivor favorite lost. And for the second week in a row, our pot-odds strategy paid off.
The Ravens were upset last week by the Raiders, sending roughly a third of Survivors to their graves. However, those who faded the Ravens as advised are still alive. Congrats.
In my pool, 173 were eliminated, 102 on the Ravens (38.6 percent). Of the original 442, 91 remain.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUCCANEERS | Broncos | 24.5% | 305 | 75.3% | 6.05 |
| RAIDERS | Panthers | 19.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 6.03 |
| BENGALS | Commanders | 15.4% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.38 |
| BROWNS | Giants | 14.1% | 250 | 71.4% | 4.03 |
| JETS | Patriots | 8.3% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 2.39 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 5.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.40 |
| BILLS | Jaguars | 4.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.29 |
| SEAHAWKS | Dolphins | 3.6% | 190 | 65.5% | 1.24 |
| Chiefs | FALCONS | 1.0% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.37 |
| TITANS | Packers | 0.5% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.21 |
| COLTS | Bears | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| SAINTS | Eagles | 0.4% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.16 |
| Lions | CARDINALS | 0.3% | 140 | 58.3% | 0.13 |
| Texans | VIKINGS | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| STEELERS | Chargers | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
| Ravens | COWBOYS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of
For the second week in a row, the biggest Survivor favorite lost. And for the second week in a row, our pot-odds strategy paid off.
The Ravens were upset last week by the Raiders, sending roughly a third of Survivors to their graves. However, those who faded the Ravens as advised are still alive. Congrats.
In my pool, 173 were eliminated, 102 on the Ravens (38.6 percent). Of the original 442, 91 remain.
As usual, you are encouraged to read here and here for the methodology behind our Survivor strategy.
Ownership percentages below come from Officefootballpools.com. The Vegas Moneyline is the average of the matchup's two moneylines. Vegas odds are the percentage chance a team has at winning. Expected Loss is a team's percent-taken multiplied by its chance of losing.
| TEAM | OPPONENT | %TAKEN* | VEGAS ML** | VEGAS ODDS | EXPECTED LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUCCANEERS | Broncos | 24.5% | 305 | 75.3% | 6.05 |
| RAIDERS | Panthers | 19.6% | 225 | 69.2% | 6.03 |
| BENGALS | Commanders | 15.4% | 355 | 78.0% | 3.38 |
| BROWNS | Giants | 14.1% | 250 | 71.4% | 4.03 |
| JETS | Patriots | 8.3% | 247.5 | 71.2% | 2.39 |
| 49ers | RAMS | 5.8% | 315 | 75.9% | 1.40 |
| BILLS | Jaguars | 4.2% | 225 | 69.2% | 1.29 |
| SEAHAWKS | Dolphins | 3.6% | 190 | 65.5% | 1.24 |
| Chiefs | FALCONS | 1.0% | 172.5 | 63.3% | 0.37 |
| TITANS | Packers | 0.5% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.21 |
| COLTS | Bears | 0.4% | 110 | 52.4% | 0.19 |
| SAINTS | Eagles | 0.4% | 142.5 | 58.8% | 0.16 |
| Lions | CARDINALS | 0.3% | 140 | 58.3% | 0.13 |
| Texans | VIKINGS | 0.2% | 132.5 | 57.0% | 0.09 |
| STEELERS | Chargers | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
| Ravens | COWBOYS | 0.2% | 115 | 53.5% | 0.09 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
There is no pot-odds play this week. The Buccaneers are the favorite among Survivors, but the Raiders, Bengals and Browns are close behind. A case could be made for the Bengals, who have the highest Vegas odds but only the third-highest Survivor ownership.
Pick who you want.
Picks below are in order of preference.
My Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs return home after a big win at Detroit last week, but this pick has more to do with the Broncos being absolutely awful. Bo Nix is in the running for the league's worst QB. His YPA is 5.0, he's tied for the league lead in interceptions with four and he's yet to throw a TD pass. In two games, he's completed just five attempts longer than 10 yards. The Broncos will be hard-pressed to keep up with the Bucs.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders upset the Ravens last week and now face the worst team in the league in the Panthers. But the Panthers benched Bryce Young this week and it's possible new QB Andy Dalton sparks Carolina. Any spark likely will be extinguished quickly, as Carolina's problems go beyond QB, but it would be just like the NFL for the riding-high Raiders to throw up a clunker against the rally-around-the-old-QB Panthers. Sure, not likely, but it's at least enough of a consideration to pass on the Raiders as the top pick.
Cincinnati Bengals
The 0-2 Bengals desperately need a win. Fortunately for them, they get a Washington defense that has two sacks, no interceptions and one takeaway in two games. They also get rookie Jayden Daniels, who has attempted just two passes of 20-plus yards in two games, both incompletions. Daniels' average target depth is a league-low 4.6 yards. A Monday night home game is just what the Bengals need.
Cleveland Browns
After getting stomped by Dallas in the opener, the Browns somehow rebounded to win at Jacksonville last week. The offense didn't do much, but the Cleveland defense was vastly improved from Week 1. That should continue this week against a Giants squad that ranks 31st in the league with 12.0 points per game.
Seattle Seahawks
It's hard to tell just how good the Seahawks are, but they're 2-0 after facing two bad quarterbacks in Bo Nix and Jacoby Brissett and should move to 3-0 against a third bad QB in Skylar Thompson on Sunday.
NOTABLE OMISSION:
New York Jets
The Patriots have been better than expected with a win at Cincinnati and an overtime loss to Seattle. The Jets should win the Thursday night matchup, but an early season division game on short rest does not make for a great Survivor pick.
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