Best Ball Strategy: Late-Round Targets Before Training Camp

🎵Follow me, don't follow me. I've got my spine, I've got my late-round crush. 🎵

For the non-REM fans out there, I'm talking about the late targets I'm taking a stand on in best ball. You may love 'em, you may hate 'em. I've got my reasoning for each of these plays, flimsy though they may be.

We'll set the cutoff to the 16th round so I can still fit Zachariah Branch into this discussion. I'm old enough to remember when he was going at the end of the 18th.

Inherently, these guys have a small chance of doing much of anything for our teams. That's why they're going so late. But we still draft 18 or 20 rounds, don't we? We've gotta have our favorite clicks from the endgame. 

Wide Receiver

Zachariah Branch: ADP 182.7 (and climbing)

Bull Case:

• Upward depth chart mobility
• Standalone talent
• Big-play ability after the catch

Branch was a fun player to watch in college, whether it was at USC or Georgia. The second he got the ball in space, you knew you were about to see something crazy more often than not. He was the engine of the UGA passing game in 2025, accounting for 26 percent of the team's receiving yards and a ridiculous 28 percent of the team's receptions. 

The knocks on him coming into the league were his size (fair) and incomplete route tree (also fair, but warrants context). Branch ran a screen on 51 percent of his routes in Athens, according to SumerSports. Only 17 of his targets were more than 10 yards downfield. OK, so that's more of a route shrub than a route tree. But, dare I say, Branch's usage was a signal that the rest of Georgia's passing game was largely busted. Gunner Stockton couldn't hit the intermediate and deep stuff, especially downfield. So eventually Georgia just kind of decided, "hey, let's do the Zach Branch Get A First Down play." And so it did.

I do think Branch's application will have to be near the LOS, at least this year and early in his career. But there's utility in that, especially when you have Branch's quickness and elusiveness. 

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Then we have the team context. Entering training camp, Branch is likely behind Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus. Do we really think that's going to last? Before the draft, I circled the Falcons as a team to watch in the draft because the pre-draft WR depth chart was so weak that if they used any capital on receiver, that player would become much more interesting. This chart is from early April in my article on ADP shapes.

In the end, I'm drafting Branch under the expectation he will carve out a solid role in this offense and be efficient with his opportunities. Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson will take up a huge chunk of the target share, so the week-to-week consistency may not be there for Branch. But I believe he'll play enough snaps to have a chance, and there will be some usable weeks from him. Branch isn't going as late as he once was, but there's still some cushion in the ADP where he can go up a few more spots and I'll continue taking him. I'll likely draw the line if he creeps up into the 160s on Underdog, which is possible if his training camp is buzzy enough. 

Devontez Walker: ADP 215.9

Bull Case

• Only non-Flowers Raven with deep speed
• Offense could go more 3-wide this year
• Incoming rookies likely fighting for different role

Baltimore has a similar thing going on to Atlanta in terms of how the market approaches their receiving corps. Nobody knows for sure who the WR2 is. Rashod Bateman is technically still on the roster (for now), and the team drafted a pair of interesting rookies in Ja'Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt. So, why am I looking at Tez Walker? Well ...

For one, I don't think Rashod Bateman is on the team come Week 1. Second, Lane and Sarratt may be better prospects than Walker, but they're battling for the same role. They're possession receivers who can help move the chains. They cannot take the top off the defense. I also wonder if Baltimore will go with more three-wide sets this year after letting Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar walk. 

All of this to say that Walker has a chance to be the downfield threat in this offense. Maybe it'll just be cardio for him more often than not, but when Baltimore wants to take a shot, Walker is viable. The sample is so small that we can't really take it seriously ... but seven catches for 157 yards and four touchdowns is fun. I kind of want to take it seriously. Come on, let me take it a little seriously. 

Last year notwithstanding, Lamar Jackson has developed into an excellent downfield passer. Other than Zay Flowers, there really isn't anyone else on the roster with deep speed. To maximize Jackson's output, Baltimore needs to give him a downfield weapon. By process of elimination, it should be Walker.

This could go wrong with just one camp signing. If Baltimore brings back DeAndre Hopkins or brings in Keenan Allen, this may all be for naught. And maybe I'm wrong about Lane/Sarratt's roles. But I do know that Walker has a profile where he might only need one or two catches in a given game to give you a usable week. That's interesting when it comes to a last-round dart.

Tyquan Thornton: ADP 214.7

• Regular snaps in a Patrick Mahomes offense
• Fragile depth chart above him

This one might be just as speculative as the Walker pick. I can see it going horribly. But I also don't feel like I need to squint that hard to see this working out to some degree. 

Rashee Rice has played 12 games the last two seasons and had to rehab another knee surgery this offseason. Xavier Worthy has been disappointing through his first two seasons as a former first-round pick. Travis Kelce looks like the Tin Man out there. Would it be that shocking if the Chiefs found themselves in a situation where it had to lean on their pass-catching depth at least a little?

Thornton has played long enough for us to know he's never going to be a big target earner. Last year was the first time he really showed a pulse, though. Small sample caveat but 19 catches for 438 yards and three touchdowns is not nothing. Doing so on 36 targets means a bad catch rate but it's still 12.2 YPT and 1.79 YPRR. His aDOT was a ridiculous 25.9 yards so if he's going to get more involved, that number has to come down. If anything, his 53 percent catch rate was impressive given that aDOT.

It's concerning that Thornton's snaps fell off last year after Rice returned, sure. But he still has an inside track at being the WR3, depending on how hyped you are on Cyrus Allen or Jalen Royals. Thornton at least seems to be used properly in KC in a way that he never was in New England, and that gives him some chance at turning his career around. 

The Chiefs might be more run-heavy this year but should still be above average in pass rate over expected. It's not going to be weekly utility for Thornton, but I can see a couple usable weeks from a KC receiver not named Rice or Worthy this year. Ideally, your Thornton pick comes on a Mahomes team with a draft slot that puts you in the back half or the 18th round. That's where Thornton might make sense to mix in once in a while. 

Honorable Mentions

• Jaylin Noel
• Kayshon Boutte
• Malachi Fields
• Skyler Bell

Check out John McKechnie's best ball rankings and stay on top of the latest ADP movement.

Tight End

I recently had my eyes opened a bit to four-TE builds this year after streaming with Pat Kerrane on the RotoWire YouTube Channel this week.

Essentially, tight ends are often better picks than players at other positions later in drafts. There's less clutter on the depth chart ahead of them, and the bar to clear for usefulness is lower. If you skip the Bowers/McBride/Loveland tier, attacking the TE problem with volume isn't a bad way of going about things. Here are some of my galaxy brain TE picks late in drafts.

Darnell Washington: ADP 213.6 (and climbing)

Bull Case

• Unique weapon given his size and athleticism
• Demonstrated utility in passing game last year with 1.97 YPRR
• Offense lends itself to 2-TE sets

Washington is getting some buzz lately, but that buzz isn't necessarily translating to a meaningful surge in ADP. He has gone from being a last-round pick in the pre-draft contests on Underdog to a last-round pick in post-draft contests. It's a 25-pick surge, but when you bake in the fact that the last round is still the last round, it doesn't mean a ton. He's still a dart. There's still time to draft him with your last pick.

 Here's what we had to say about big Darnell on the stream.

Washington started to show real ability as a pass-catcher last year, drawing a career-high 43 targets and reeling in 31 for 364 yards and a touchdown. Even as a big fella, Washington had three catches go at least 20 yards. His 7.5 YAC/Reception was in the 92nd percentile. 

One of the big talking points this offseason is the league-wide adoption of multi-tight-end sets. There aren't many teams I can think of that can and should do that more than the Steelers. They need to be run-heavy. They can't throw downfield. They have no receiver depth beyond DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman. And they have two viable tight ends in Washington and Pat Freiermuth. 

Washington's 23.2 TPRR% won't be sustainable, but regressing that while boosting his snap count into the 600s is a fine tradeoff. 

Mike Gesicki (207.5) or Erick All (215.9)

• Cheap exposure to one of the best passing games in the NFL

I've been thinking about how unique the Bengals offense is in a best ball sense. It's like a stars-and-scrubs approach to a real life NFL team. All the good players are gone by the sixth round and nobody wants to even look at what's left over. Well, I do. For as concentrated as this offense projects to be, there is a limit to how many targets Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins can handle. There has to be a door No. 3. Right?

Gesicki was #bad last year after being a nice addition to the offense in 2024 with a 20.1 TPRR% and 1.61 YPRR. He got dinged up midseason but he honestly looked better after he returned than before the injury. It's worth wondering if he has anything left in the tank, but we can also take something for granted in that he isn't going to be blocking when he's on the field. He runs a route on 83 percent of his pass play snaps. That gives him at least an outside chance at returning some value for us at the end of drafts.

If you want to be a little crazier within this offense, keep an eye on Erick All. Injuries have hampered All going back to his time in college at both Michigan and Iowa. He missed all last year with an ACL tear, the second of his playing career. All was back for OTAs this summer, though, and the hope is he'll be good to go for this season. If Cincinnati isn't satisfied with what it's getting out of Gesicki, it wouldn't be shocking to see All work his way into the mix. In a brief, nine-game cameo as a rookie, All caught 20 of 22 targets for 158 yards and a score. File him away as a possible final piece of any Cincy stacks. 

Honorable Mentions

• Terrance Ferguson (203.1)
• Jake Tonges (215.0)
• Cade Otton (186.0)

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Running Back

Running back might be the toughest position to squeeze any value out of at the end of drafts. Conventionally, you want to finish your RB shopping by the time the 14th round is over. 

The numbers don't lie; any running back you take in this range is more likely than not to give you bupkis.  This is a Do As I Say, Not As I Do type of deal. I still take some swings on RB late. If you're with me and walk on the wild side a bit, here are some of the running backs I'm rounding out my roster with.

Demond Claiborne: ADP 213.1

• Mediocre depth ahead of him could help Claiborne get on the field
• Rare speed

Minnesota's backfield is valued as one of the weakest in the league for fantasy. The Vikings have the cheapest RB1 in fantasy (Jordan Mason) and Aaron Jones goes just a few picks after him. The market is stopping well short of buying in big time on either. 

Part of why running backs are often such bad picks late in drafts is because they have such big hurdles to getting on the field. A WR4 on a team can get a target in garbage time, turn it into a big play and boom, they've done enough for you that week. It's much harder for a running back to pull that off. There's a need for a running back of this genre to rip a big play on one of just a few carries. That's a big ask.

So, we're likely working with a really volatile and likely minimal snap share with Claiborne. We can accept that. When I think of a running back who could hit a home run with limited opportunities, though, it's Claiborne. He comes into the league with 4.37 speed and demonstrated big-play ability at Wake Forest.

Minnesota desperately lacks speed elsewhere in the backfield. Deploying Claiborne would give the offense a different look. 

I'm not envisioning even 100 carries for Claiborne if everyone stays healthy. What I could see is a situation where Claiborne gets used like rookie-year Keaton Mitchell, coming into the game in the second half when the defense is gassed and delivering the knockout blow. If we can squeeze two usable weeks out of 18th-round Claiborne, we'll have done well with this pick.

Jaydon Blue: ADP 210.3

• Javonte Williams hedge
• Year 2 progress

I'm a little leery of Javonte Williams where he's going, so, of course, I'm going to put on the blinders and convince myself there has to be someone that actually puts heat on him. /scans the depth chart/ Oy. We don't love what we're seeing, folks. But if I had to pick one, it's Blue.

The market got over its skis on Blue last summer and got burned. I would guess that the Venn Diagram of those who drafted Blue last summer and those who are drafting him now looks something like this:

Blue was a fine enough prospect to where we can feel confident he gets more of a role this year. That's a low bar, so let's say he gets a role this year. He has speed unlike anyone else in Dallas' backfield and might have some level of pass-catching chops. 

Really, taking Blue is a cheap way of getting at the Dallas backfield or at least fading the idea that Javonte Williams has a complete monopoly two years in a row. As long as Blue is staying in the 18th, I'll dabble here and there.

Honorable Mention

• Ray Davis (200.4): Hedging against James Cook has to work eventually, right?
• Jordan James (210.4): It's a crapshoot as to who will be the next man up behind Christian McCaffrey, and we run the risk of it not mattering again. But what if?
• Ollie Gordon (215.9): Achane can only take so many carries. Gordon can do the between-the-tackles dirty work. Maybe there will be a couple weeks where Miami has a drive that gets into the red zone. 
• LeQuint Allen (215.6): What if Chris Rodriguez's foot injury doesn't get back to 100 percent health? Bhayshul Tuten can't do it all on his own. 

Offenses with Undrafted* RB2s

• Bengals: Samaje Perine, Tahj Brooks
• Colts: DJ Giddens, Seth McGowan
• Ravens: Justice Hill, Adam Randall

*ADP of 210 or later.

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