There's been a lot of great research and analysis on the RB dead zone over the years. At the risk of oversimplifying it, I define it as the part of the ADP that produces bad running back picks at cost. These often come between the fourth and seventh rounds of a best ball fantasy football draft.
The reasons why those picks fail can vary, but a common theme tends to be bull cases that are propped up by volume projection. Put another way, the market correctly identifies (usually) the best running back picks every year, but that resource is limited. Then the focus shifts less to upside and more towards "well, this guy should lead the team in carries at least."
It's funny how the market seems to produce these picks year after year, and we still end up with them on our teams. There are still hits from this range, usually, but the fall-off is notable. RotoWire data scientist Paul Mammino put this handy dandy chart together that illustrates this idea.
How Running Backs Perform In Best Ball By Round
As we can see, the number of average usable weeks drops from 7.43 to 5.79 when we go from the third to the fourth round. That may not seem like a lot, but we need all the usable weeks we can get. Anything below expectation from a pick that high can be really damaging to our team's overall viability.
Another notable detail is that the average usable (RB18 or better) rate isn't that different between running backs taken in the fourth round vs the seventh round.
Let's look at this through another lens. How often the running backs drafted in this range end up being busts.
The "cliff" kind of starts in the third, but it really ramps up in the fourth, when more than half of the picks end up being busts. We're defining a bust as a player who falls below historic positional average weighted to draft cost. The "super bust" is defined as a player who falls 50 percent below historic positional average weighted to draft cost.
You can point to the bust rate of first-round running backs and note the 58 percent there. Almost all of those failures would be chalked up to injury or anything else that prevents them from playing in games. Not loss of role.
Coming back to the matter at hand, these mid-to-early rounds clearly produce some bad running back picks. The sixth round appears to be the catastrophic donkey land, where two-thirds of the RBs picked in that range disappoint and one-third end up being a nothingburger for your roster. Those are numbers I can understand. And they're bad.
Here are the other bust rates by position
Recent RB Dead Zone Performance
Here's a snapshot of players who were drafted between rounds 4-7 in 2024 and 2025, along with this year's crop of backs going in that range.
In 2024, Kenneth Walker, Zamir White and Raheem Mostert all qualified as busts. Last year, the list included Alvin Kamara, James Conner and Aaron Jones.
Injuries obviously play a part in some of these cases, but so too does an over-expectation of workload dominance in their respective backfields. Age is also an interesting through line for these instances, particularly with Mostert and Jones coming off of late-career resurgences the year before crashing back to earth.
Let's check in on what the market is producing for our Dead Zone offerings this year
2026 RB Dead Zone
| Player | 2026 ADP | Rd | 2025 GP | 2025 FPts | PPG | RuYd | RuTD | REC | RecYd | PO Pts | PoPPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams | 35.6 | Rd 3 | 16 | 229.3 | 13.2 | 1201 | 11 | 35 | 137 | 43.5 | 10.9 |
| Josh Jacobs | 38.2 | Rd 4 | 15 | 223.1 | 14.9 | 929 | 13 | 36 | 282 | 45 | 11.2 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 49.7 | Rd 5 | 17 | 190.7 | 11.2 | 911 | 9 | 35 | 221 | 39 | 13 |
| David Montgomery | 50.1 | Rd 5 | 17 | 155 | 9.1 | 716 | 8 | 24 | 192 | 29.4 | 7.4 |
| D'Andre Swift | 51.9 | Rd 5 | 16 | 215.6 | 13.5 | 1087 | 9 | 34 | 299 | 60.7 | 15.2 |
| Bucky Irving | 53.0 | Rd 5 | 10 | 125.5 | 12.6 | 588 | 1 | 30 | 277 | 35.6 | 8.9 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 54.0 | Rd 5 | 14 | 154.8 | 11.1 | 827 | 7 | 26 | 171 | 19.7 | 6.6 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 55.3 | Rd 5 | 15 | 85.6 | 5.7 | 307 | 5 | 10 | 79 | 9.3 | 4.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 71.2 | Rd 6 | 15 | 112.4 | 7.5 | 511 | 1 | 30 | 223 | 11.5 | 3.8 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 75.2 | Rd 7 | 17 | 124.2 | 8.8 | 929 | 5 | 28 | 213 | - | - |
| Tony Pollard | 82.6 | Rd 7 | 17 | 175.3 | 10.3 | 1082 | 5 | 33 | 206 | 66.5 | 16.6 |
*ADP as of mid-June 2026
My eye is immediately drawn to Chuba Hubbard in the sixth as a red flag. Noting how bad the history of sixth-round running backs is, and then seeing Hubbard and only Hubbard there ... that's a red flag if I've ever seen one. And it makes more sense why Jonathon Brooks' rise has not changed Hubbard's ADP. He stands in there on his own island this year. It's almost as if the fantasy gods have predetermined that Hubbard is a bad pick this year. If you're in need of a running back and Hubbard is the next best available, it may be best to look elsewhere and come back to it with your next pick.
Javonte Williams catches my eye here as well. My guy Mario Puig wrote a bit on Williams in his recent Five Fades article , but here's my spiel on why I'm skeptical on Javonte this season as well.
- Last season was a perfect storm. Market uncertainty on the Cowboys backfield kept a lid on Williams' ADP throughout the summer. He ultimately had a monopoly on the backfield work and crushed his Round 11 ADP.
- A lot of the rationale behind drafting Williams this year is the expectation of the exact same market share on the backfield work. It makes sense to a degree; the Cowboys didn't add anyone meaningful this offseason, and they extended Williams. It's not like he's disappearing.
- However, I don't think it's a given we see a repeat of last year. There are young backs like Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah who might be ready for more work after N/A rookie years. Any pressing of Williams' volume margins will be detrimental to his fantasy output because he's not overly efficient or explosive. Dallas should strive to get more out of its passing down functions from its running backs than what Williams provided last year. 2.7 YPT is unplayable. Williams already ranked low in snaps with touch percentage and a loss of snaps would really sting.
- Ultimately, I'm not betting on lightning striking twice. A late-third-round pick coming off of easily his best season to date gives me some pause. Things may not break as perfectly for him this year as they did in 2025. I don't want to pay that draft capital to find out.
Tony Pollard has been a staple of my draft plans, even at the much pricier post-draft ADP. I'm still kicking myself for not drafting him more before May.
He has been a great blend of volume and efficiency, averaging 251 carries for 1,055 yards (4.2 YPC) and 5.3 rushing touchdowns per season since 2023 while also giving you 43 catches per year. There's been enough time since the draft to suggest Pollard is close to the top-end of his ADP, barring injury to other backs going ahead of him. Pollard as your RB3 in the seventh round is something I'll be investing in heavily in 2026.
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