NFL Picks: The Staff Handicaps the Games

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Updated on September 4, 2014 1:48AM EST

This is the 15th year we've done the staff picks, and Erickson returns as the champ, going 132-114 last season. If we were scoring in absolute value, though Stopa would have won, because he was the furthest from .500, but unfortunately he won the contest in 2012, so people didn't start fading him until they were shirtless and homeless, undoing much of the good work he does at his day job.

In any event, we're back for another round. I've made a couple changes that will be apparent next week - I'll start keeping track not only of picks on which we all agree, but also on the record of the majority, whether it's 3-2, 4-1 or 5-0. It'll be a much bigger sample (every game), and it'll better reflect whether there's a wisdom of crowds or the opposite (stupidity of the herd?) effect.

Falcons, Jaguars and Dolphins are unanimous picks*.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Packers +5.5 at Seahawks	Packers	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Packers
Saints -3 at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Vikings +4 at Rams	Rams	Vikings	Vikings	Rams	Vikings
Browns +6.5 at Steelers	Browns	Steelers	Browns	Browns	Browns
Jaguars +10.5 at Eagles	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars
Raiders +5 at Jets	Jets	Raiders	Jets	Jets	Jets
Bengals +2 at Ravens	Bengals	Ravens	Bengals	Bengals	Ravens
Bills +6.5 at Bears	Bills	Bears	Bills	Bills	Bears
Redskins +2.5 at Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans	Redskins	Texans
Titans +4 at Chiefs	Titans	Titans	Chiefs	Chiefs	Titans
Patriots -4.5

Falcons, Jaguars and Dolphins are unanimous picks*.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Packers +5.5 at Seahawks	Packers	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks	Packers
Saints -3 at Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Vikings +4 at Rams	Rams	Vikings	Vikings	Rams	Vikings
Browns +6.5 at Steelers	Browns	Steelers	Browns	Browns	Browns
Jaguars +10.5 at Eagles	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars	Jaguars
Raiders +5 at Jets	Jets	Raiders	Jets	Jets	Jets
Bengals +2 at Ravens	Bengals	Ravens	Bengals	Bengals	Ravens
Bills +6.5 at Bears	Bills	Bears	Bills	Bills	Bears
Redskins +2.5 at Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans	Redskins	Texans
Titans +4 at Chiefs	Titans	Titans	Chiefs	Chiefs	Titans
Patriots -4.5 at Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Panthers +1 at Buccaneers	Panthers	Buccaneers	Panthers	Panthers	Buccaneers
49ers -5 at Cowboys	49ers	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Colts +7.5 at Broncos	Broncos	Colts	Broncos	Colts	Colts
Giants +5 at Lions	Giants	Lions	Giants	Giants	Giants
Chargers +3 at Cardinals	Cardinals	Chargers	Cardinals	Chargers	Chargers
Best Bet	Cardinals	Lions	Falcons	Seahawks	Ravens
SB Prediction	GB over BAL	SEA over NE	IND over NO	SEA over DEN	NE over GB
2013 Record	132-114-10	118-128-10	123-123-10	111-135-10	128-118-10
2013 Best Bet Record	9-7-1	5-12	9-8	9-8	6-11
2013 Unanimous Pick Record	23-29-3
2012 Record	110-140-6	125-125-6	121-129-6	143-107-6	123-127-6
2011 Record	121-128-7	134-115-7	124-125-7	123-126-7	127-122-7
2010 Record	129-122-5	134-117-5	126-125-5	136-115-5	134-117-5
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120	N/A	130-117
2006 Record	118-129	N/A	139-108	N/A	N/A
2005 Record	121-126	N/A	127-120	N/A	N/A
2004 Record	124-124	N/A	130-118	N/A	N/A
2003 Record	121-126	118-129	124-123	N/A	N/A
2002 Record	113-136	123-126	141-108	N/A	N/A
2001 Record	124-113	117-120	118-119	N/A	N/A
2000 Record	123-117	134-106	141-99	N/A	N/A

Unanimous Picks*

As DDD pointed out five years ago, the "consensus picks" were really unanimous ones, so I've changed their section header to reflect that. Better late than never. This week, we all agree on the Falcons, Jaguars and Dolphins.

Comments:

Writer	Comment
Erickson	I'm buying into Arizona's improved offensive line, Bruce Arians' offense and their home field. I am a little bit worried about their injuries on defense, but they've still played well when the first unit was out there after those injuries. As always, a lot of underdogs in Week 1, though a notable exception for me is taking Carolina as a road favorite. I think that there's been a little bit of a "sky is falling" around Cam Newton and the offense... Always prefer the Giants as a dog than as a favorite, like that the line has moved to give me a little more buffer.
Pianowski	What's the over/under on EJ Manuel's benching? Week 6? Week 3? Two quarters into Sunday... I was going to make the Bears my best, switched to the Lions at the last moment. Maybe Eli Manning is long-conning us with the horrible preseason, but why would you want to make him a West Coast accuracy guy? How will that work? I know there are all sorts of examples of struggling August players who were fine when the games counted - see Phil Rivers last year, another system switch as well. That said, Manning doesn't have McCoy, Whisenhunt and the San Diego toys on his side. I'm calling for two interceptions at minimum, as Detroit cruises... A lot of hold-the-nose reflexive dogs this week. I can't spot a big number with the Jets, general principle. I have to take the Jags over 10, general principle. But remember in the NFL, no one really knows anything. The key is to adjust quickly... At the end of it all, Seahawks over Patriots. Sure, it's hard to repeat, but it's hard to win one, period. So many pieces of NFC West summer news fell Seattle's way.
Liss	I wanted to make the Giants my best bet, but didn't want to jinx them, so went with Atlanta instead. The Falcons almost beat the Saints last year at home, and now Julio Jones and Roddy White are healthy. The Saints aren't the same team outside of New Orleans. The Giants defense was strong last year, and while they'll miss Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul is healthy, and they're loaded in the secondary. As long as Manning doesn't give it away, I think they cover and win outright over an overhyped Detroit squad. I love the Bills getting nearly seven (it's seven now on most books, but we locked it in unfortunately at 6.5) against a bad Bears defense. The Colts without Robert Mathis won't even slow down the Broncos offense. For the Colts to cover, Andrew Luck will have to play the game of his life against what could be a good defense this year. I picked Indy over New Orleans in the SB because all the teams I really think will win it would be boring. But maybe Luck does become the star he's supposed to be in Year 3. Had to restrain myself from picking NYG over NE.
Stopa	I wish I could make my "best bet" the under on Jax/Philly. 53 points is crazy high for any Week 1 game, particularly when one of the teams is the Jaguars... I love Aaron Rodgers as much as the next guy, but the disparity between the Seattle D and the Packers D is huge, and that home-field edge in Seattle is as good as any in any sport... The Bills have to be the "hold your nose" pick of the week given how bad they looked in the preseason, which probably means nothing.
Del Don	I had a hard time picking between the Ravens and Buccaneers being my best bet, as I view them as both playing teams they are better than or at least equal to at home with a point spread less than three (this was the case with the Texans early on, but the spread has since moved closer to the usual FG). I went with Baltimore, since TB has a new QB and coaching staff, while the Ravens are typically very tough at home even during a down year such as last season...As for the rest of this slate, it was pretty easy to just go with mostly dogs, as there's so much unknown right now. I say this every time of the year, but Week 1 is always the easiest for me to pick ATS.

The players:

•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 and 2011 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.

•Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.