Depth Chart Deep Dive: Does the Market Have it Right?
Fantasy players are more informed than they've ever been. They're drafting more, consuming more news and content, and preparing for the season earlier. That doesn't mean we always get things right.
Variance is variance and injuries happen, but sometimes we're just flat out wrong about certain depth chart situations. I wanted to take a look at some of the murkier depth charts in the ADP and just make sure we have things in the right order.
You can play around with the best ball ADP tracker above. It has updated ADP data and can chart any player being drafted in best ball.
Also, be sure to check out our revamped best ball rankings section, complete with both Underdog and DraftKings-specific ranks!
Denver Broncos Backfield
The market has cooled to varying degrees on each of J.K. Dobbins, RJ Harvey and Jonah Coleman since the draft. Seeing it visually represented is interesting though. Harvey was going high in the ADP before the NFL Draft. Coleman gets selected in the 4th round and suddenly both Coleman and Harvey's ADPs hit the skids. Meanwhile, Dobbins' ADP is floating safely above the fray like the AM Radio from that one scene in Hot Rod.
What do the respective ADP slides tell us when it comes to Harvey and Coleman? For starters, I think the market just corrected on Harvey. 67.5 was kind of a ridiculous spot to be drafting him in April considering Dobbins was brought back on a two-year deal early in free agency. For Coleman, this was a tough break in terms of landing spot. There was some hope coming into the draft that Coleman would be a RB2 in a weak backfield with a chance at taking over by the end of his rookie season. That evaporated when he went to Denver. He's got two big roadblocks ahead of him.
Now, the Coleman drafter will note that maybe those roadblocks aren't actually so big. Dobbins has played more than ten games exactly once since his rookie season, including being held to just 10 last year. Harvey's rookie year fantasy production was largely touchdown dependent and he struggled as a runner despite playing behind a great offensive line.
It made sense for Denver to bolster the backfield with someone like Coleman, who showed strong rushing ability and solid pass-catching chops at Washington and Arizona. It seems like Coleman can pick up the slack as a runner if Dobbins misses time, and in the pass-game if Harvey does. Without those contingencies, I don't see much happening with Coleman this year. At best, he'll be the guy that vultures the occasional touchdown to make Dobbins/Harvey investors mad.
Zooming out, another factor working against Coleman is that running backs in his range of the draft are usually bad bets in best ball. And if you are taking a running back in that part of the ADP, there are better options with fewer roadblocks or more standalone value. I don't know if this is a hot take, but I'd take Tyler Allgeier (157.1) on Underdog where Coleman goes at 148.0, for instance.
So right now, drafters are posed with three different price points to get exposure to the Denver backfield: Harvey (early 8th on Underdog, late 7th on DraftKings) Dobbins (9th round on Underdog, 10th on DraftKings) and Coleman (13th on Underdog, early 15th on DraftKings).
J.K. Dobbins got hurt in Week 10 last year.
DEN average single-game PROE in Weeks 1-10: -0.7%
Weeks 11-20 (excluding W21 with Stidham): 4.6%Pass rate in Weeks 1-10: 61.0%
— Jack Miller (@JackMiller02) June 25, 2026
Weeks 11-20: 65.8%
This was an interesting pull from Jack Miller. The offense balanced, if not run-heavy, when Dobbins was healthy. There's a big split in how Harvey was impacted by Dobbins' availability. He averaged just 2.5 catches per game Weeks 1-11 before upping it to 3.5. Harvey investors may not be baking in the risk that Dobbins poses to Harvey's week-to-week PPR utility when both are healthy.
Alright, get to the point, how do we play it?
- Dobbins: Good buy on both sites
- Harvey: Shaky on Underdog, fine on DraftKings
- Coleman: Largely fading, will only have a few shares.
Cleveland Browns Receivers
Before the draft, Jerry Jeudy was among the cheapest WR1s in the NFL by ADP. Then Cleveland drafted KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, and now Jeudy is among the cheapest WR?s in the NFL.
The market is telling us a few things here. Burying the lede a little, but Harold Fannin is being drafted as the top Browns pass-catcher (TE7, ADP 103.2 on UD). Then ADP has Concepcion as the WR1 in Cleveland, followed by Boston and Jeudy. Neither KCC nor Boston got much of a boost by virtue of going to Cleveland. In fact (not surprisingly), both lost a little ground in ADP.
Concepcion may be my biggest rookie FOMO case as of this writing. I've been drafting receiver in that part of the draft pretty regularly, but still haven't taken the plunge on KCC.
Recent history tells us that first round receivers tend to be solid fantasy picks right away. Now, before you yell at me about Marvin Harrison Jr or someone worse, remind yourself where the ADP was on these guys going into their rookie years.
We talked about this on a recent best ball stream with Pat Kerrane, where the market has kind of gone overboard in recent years on first round rookies in best ball. Harrison at the 1/2 turn was obviously bad process. It seems like the market is learning from its mistakes this year, or at least acknowledging that the 2026 class didn't produce the level of receiver prospect that Harrison was.
Long way of saying you can get a first-round receiver with a clear path to a lot of targets for relatively cheap when it comes to Concepcion. He showed a ton of versatility in college, and an ability to take on heavy target volume. I do trust Todd Monken to be clever with how he uses KCC.
Boston is the sticking point to me in this group. His ADP (157) is at the point in the draft where you can't be only taking wild dart throws. You don't want to light your 14th round pick on fire and hope that your picks after that can save you. I don't care how impressive Boston might have looked in OTAs. It's not actionable.
As much as we want the rookie to hit the ground running, we can't just brush Jerry Jeudy aside as long as he's on the roster with this contract. He's also a year removed from being kind of awesome. Though to be fair, it was not good with him and Watson in 2024.
So, I view Boston as a speculative asset at best. If you have a roster build that can handle a slow start in hopes of him getting a role by November, Boston is justifiable where he goes, I suppose.
As gross as it is, I really don't mind drafting Jeudy as my WR6. I think we can project a ton of snaps and a chance that he makes last year's horrendous YPRR figure look like an anomaly. When you contextualize where Jeudy goes in drafts, he has a higher floor than his counterparts like rookies Germie Bernard or Zachariah Branch, or Malik Washington or Tank Dell. Full disclosure I've been drafting Branch a bunch there but again, I think you can hold your nose and draft Jeudy late without it hurting you too much.
- Concepcion: Good pick on both sites, still a value on DK (125.4 ADP)
- Boston: Risky pick with slow start potential. Not targeting him heavily.
- Jeudy: Role may be bigger than the market wants it to be. Should at least provide a solid start. Good value as one of your final WR picks.
Honorable Mentions
- Packers receivers: Christian Watson vs Jayden Reed vs Matthew Golden all going within ~50 picks of each other.
- Steelers receivers: DK Metcalf or Michael Pittman at cost?
