Emilio Pagan

Pagan rebounded in a big way in 2023 with an impressive 2.99 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 65:21 K:BB over 69.1 innings for Minnesota. The 32-year-old vastly improved his ability to keep the ball inside the park, as his 0.65 HR/9 was the best mark of his career. However, Pagan's home run issues could resurface in his new home park, as the veteran recently joined Cincinnati on a multi-year pact. The right-hander is currently in line for setup duties, but with 32 career saves, he has the experience to occasionally spell closer Alexis Diaz in the ninth inning.

Pagan was among the candidates to close for the Padres last spring, but San Diego sent him packing in an Opening Day trade with Minnesota. Taylor Rogers' departure created a void at closer for the Twins, but Rocco Baldelli announced that the newly-acquired Pagan would be part of a committee. Showcasing an improved strikeout rate (12.0 K/9), the veteran ended up recording nine of the Twins' 16 saves through mid-June, but was ousted from closing after a string of blowups later that month. Of course, home runs were still an issue (1.7 HR/9), but Pagan issued more free passes than he ever has (3.7 BB/9) en-route to a career-worst 1.37 WHIP. He has one more year on his contract with Minnesota and is unlikely to be in the team's conversation for saves in 2023.

After saving 20 games for Tampa Bay in 2019 and two for San Diego in 2020, many assumed Pagan would be in the Padres mix for saves last season. The closer role ultimately went to Mark Melancon, who led the league with 39 saves and had high security in the job all year. Pagan's 2.3 HR/9 was second-worst among qualified relievers and was the main reason he never really threatened Melancon for save chances. He allowed 24 barrels among 174 batted ball events, a 13.8% clip that was among the worst in baseball. These struggles resulted in a career-worst 4.83 ERA (4.67 xERA, 5.22 FIP) across his 67 appearances. However, the 30-year-old improved his walk rate (6.8%) and recorded a career-high 19 holds in a setup role. Pagan has a wide range of outcomes for 2022, which include the possibility of save chances in San Diego, or a possible trade due to his rising arbitration salary and pending free agency in 2024.

After racking up 20 saves for the Rays in 2019, Pagan was acquired by San Diego to fill a setup role in the bullpen. His campaign got off to a rocky beginning, however, as he held a 7.36 ERA along with four blown saves nearly a month into the season. Much to his credit, the right-hander rebounded from the rough start, holding opponents scoreless in 10 of his final 11 appearances and picking up two saves after both Kirby Yates and Drew Pomeranz went down with injuries. Of concern, Pagan's fastball velocity dropped a tick, and his strikeout rate (26.4%) was merely average after coming in at an elite 36.0% mark the previous season. In addition, Pagan struggled with both his command and control, registering a 1.6 HR/9 and a career-worst 10.3 BB%. Both numbers improved over the final five weeks of the season, so his 2021 success (and role) could hinge on how much of that momentum carries over to spring training.

The Rays acquired Pagan in December 2018 after he took a step back during his year with the A's, but he ended up finishing the 2019 season as the team's main closer (20-for-28 in save chances). He was traded yet again in February, this time to San Diego, where he figures to set up in front of Kirby Yates. Pagan increased his K% nearly 12 percentage points to 36.0% as he added almost two mph to his fastball, which averaged 95.5 mph. Pagan finished the season with a 2.31 ERA and 0.83 WHIP while relying more on his slider, which also saw a spike in velocity of almost three mph. The loss of the ninth-inning role following the trade to the Padres takes Pagan off the table in most standard mixed leagues, but Pagan should break camp with a high-leverage role and is still very much appealing in leagues counting holds.

Pagan was a deep-league sleeper last offseason on the back of a campaign in which he struck out 28.6% of batters while walking just 4.1%. Both marks went in the wrong direction in 2018, though he was still above average in both statistical categories. Pagan has a heavy flyball lean and that has led to some homer problems at the highest level. Following a trade to the Rays, his third team, he joins an organization with a reputation for getting the most out of its pitchers. Perhaps he will get some run as an opener. Either way he should see a fairly heavy workload, and with a fairly high strikeout rate, Pagan remains a candidate to be a non-closing reliever with fantasy value.

Turning 27 in May, Pagan isn't young, but his rookie stint with the Mariners made him a fresh name to watch. Averaging at least 10.2 K/9 in his last two seasons combined between Double-A and Triple-A, the right-hander fanned 56 and walked just eight across his first 50.1 major-league innings last year. Among big-league relievers with 50-plus innings in 2017, he ranked 18th with a 24.5 K-BB percentage, and the 1.4 BB/9 shows he's not just a high-whiff, high-walk filler arm. His rising fastball hits the mid-90s to pair with an effective slider, and harnessing his changeup could elevate him even more. Home runs probably will be an issue because he works up in the zone (56.9 percent flyball rate in his first year), but perhaps his new park will help. He was dealt to the Athletics early this offseason and may find himself in the mix for setup work or even save chances.