This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
DDD's 9-6 week combined with Pianow's 5-10 puts him just four games back in Week 17. As it turns out they differ on five games, meaning DDD would have to go 5-0 on those to win. In other words, Pianow is 31/32 to win, while DDD is 1/32. Still, you wouldn't get on an airplane with a 3.125 percent chance of crashing, so it's not over yet.
Put differently, though, the 49ers have a 14 percent chance of losing to the Rams outright (according to Vegas), and DDD has considerably less chance to win than St. Louis.
We have four consensus picks: the Redskins, Dolphins, Chiefs and Cardinals. Both DDD and Pianow, the two frontrunners, made the Pats their best bets this week.
Enjoy the games.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redskins +9.5 at Eagles | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins |
| Jets +2 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Panthers +8.5 at Saints | Panthers | Saints | Saints | Panthers | Saints |
| Lions -3.5 at Packers | Packers | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| 49ers -11 at Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams | 49ers | 49ers |
| Colts +3.5 at Jaguars | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Jaguars |
| Bills +11.5 at Patriots | Bills | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots |
| Titans -3 at Texans | Titans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans |
| Bears pick 'em at Vikings | Vikings | Bears | Bears | Bears | Vikings |
| Steelers -7 at Browns | Browns | Steelers | Browns | Steelers | Steelers |
| Ravens -1.5 at Bengals | Ravens | Ravens | Bengals | Ravens | Bengals |
| Buccaneers +12 at Falcons | Falcons | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers |
| Chiefs +3.5 at Broncos | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
DDD's 9-6 week combined with Pianow's 5-10 puts him just four games back in Week 17. As it turns out they differ on five games, meaning DDD would have to go 5-0 on those to win. In other words, Pianow is 31/32 to win, while DDD is 1/32. Still, you wouldn't get on an airplane with a 3.125 percent chance of crashing, so it's not over yet.
Put differently, though, the 49ers have a 14 percent chance of losing to the Rams outright (according to Vegas), and DDD has considerably less chance to win than St. Louis.
We have four consensus picks: the Redskins, Dolphins, Chiefs and Cardinals. Both DDD and Pianow, the two frontrunners, made the Pats their best bets this week.
Enjoy the games.
| Erickson | Pianowski | Liss | Stopa | Del Don | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redskins +9.5 at Eagles | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins | Redskins |
| Jets +2 at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Panthers +8.5 at Saints | Panthers | Saints | Saints | Panthers | Saints |
| Lions -3.5 at Packers | Packers | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| 49ers -11 at Rams | Rams | Rams | Rams | 49ers | 49ers |
| Colts +3.5 at Jaguars | Colts | Colts | Colts | Colts | Jaguars |
| Bills +11.5 at Patriots | Bills | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots | Patriots |
| Titans -3 at Texans | Titans | Texans | Texans | Texans | Texans |
| Bears pick 'em at Vikings | Vikings | Bears | Bears | Bears | Vikings |
| Steelers -7 at Browns | Browns | Steelers | Browns | Steelers | Steelers |
| Ravens -1.5 at Bengals | Ravens | Ravens | Bengals | Ravens | Bengals |
| Buccaneers +12 at Falcons | Falcons | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Buccaneers |
| Chiefs +3.5 at Broncos | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Chargers +3 at Raiders | Raiders | Chargers | Raiders | Chargers | Raiders |
| Seahawks +2.5 at Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Cowboys +2.5 at Giants | Cowboys | Cowboys | Giants | Cowboys | Cowboys |
| Best Bet | Dolphins | Patriots | Colts | Cowboys | Patriots |
| Last Week's Record | 6-9-1 | 5-10-1 | 5-10-1 | 6-9-1 | 9-6-1 |
| 2011 Record | 114-120-6 | 125-109-6 | 115-119-1 | 116-118-5 | 121-113-6 |
| Best Bet Record | 7-9 | 7-8-1 | 10-6 | 10-6 | 6-9-1 |
| Consensus Pick Record | 28-23-1 | ||||
| 2010 Record | 129-122-5 | 134-117-5 | 126-125-5 | 136-115-5 | 134-117-5 |
| 2009 Record | 123-130-3 | 132-121-3 | 131-122-3 | 130-123-3 | 126-127-3 |
| 2008 Record | 132-114-10 | 128-118-10 | 124-122-10 | 125-121-10 | 130-116-10 |
| 2007 Record | 127-120 | 118-129 | 127-120 | N/A | 130-117 |
| 2006 Record | 118-129 | N/A | 139-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2005 Record | 121-126 | N/A | 127-120 | N/A | N/A |
| 2004 Record | 124-124 | N/A | 130-118 | N/A | N/A |
| 2003 Record | 121-126 | 118-129 | 124-123 | N/A | N/A |
| 2002 Record | 113-136 | 123-126 | 141-108 | N/A | N/A |
| 2001 Record | 124-113 | 117-120 | 118-119 | N/A | N/A |
| 2000 Record | 123-117 | 134-106 | 141-99 | N/A | N/A |
Consensus Picks
This week we have four consensus picks: the Redskins, Dolphins, Chiefs and Cardinals. We went 2-1 on consensus picks in Week 16 to put us at 28-23-1 on the year. We went 32-21-1 on consensus picks in 2010.
Comments:
| Writer | Comment |
| Erickson | The Jets-Dolphins line should be at least -3 for Miami. The Jets are only getting the proverbial "need to win" bonus that ignores how well Miami has been playing lately... This week, more than others, I'm going to take the points, all things being equal... Toughest one for me was BAL-CIN. The final decision came on the basis that the Bengals have come up small against their toughest opponents all year. |
| Pianowski | Typical Week 17 messy slate. I changed my mind on the Giants-Cowboys about 27 times. |
| Liss | The Lions line should be about -7. The Colts sure seemed to care about beating Houston last week. If they show that much heart in Jacksonville, they should win, assuming they're not worried about giving up the No. 1 pick. |
| Stopa | The Broncos, Raiders, Titans, Jets and Bengals all need to win in the AFC, but we see teams fail in this spot every year. The story of the week in the AFC will be all of them losing. It's not farfetched, since, except perhaps in the case of the Broncos, each team's opponent is simply a better team... The Lions and Bucs go together like peanut butter and jelly. If Detroit wins at 1 pm, the Falcons aren't playing for anything at 4 pm (locked into the sixth seed), so they'll likely rest their starters, making a double-digit line look huge. If the Lions lose, though, a double-digit line won't look so big for a Falcons team that has to win to get the fifth seed against a Bucs team that quit six weeks ago... As good as the Saints are at home, I can't bring myself to lay so many points when I'm not sure if Brees and the Saints will play all game. Remember, the Saints got burned with injuries in Week 17 last year, then lost in the WC round... The Cowboys have been better than the Giants all season by a wide margin, but some bad finishes by Dallas and good finishes by the Giants have masked it. This week, Dallas shows it's better and wins by double digits. |
| Del Don | As usual, some quirky lines in Week 17. The Giants/Cowboys game was a true toss up for me, but I expect the Pats to roll. |
The players:
•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.
•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.
•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.
•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.
•Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.
