NFL Picks and Props for Divisional Round Weekend
The 2025 National Football League has four total games in the NFL Divisional Round, with two games on Saturday, and two more on Sunday. We'll take a spin around the NFL, looking to mine some gems. Let's get started!
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Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
We don't have a ton of plays for Saturday's game in Denver, as the Bills meet the Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High.
However, while the Denver rushing is defense is quite stout, the Broncos can be had through the air. That's bad news with Bills QB Josh Allen in town this weekend.
The Broncos allowed 18 passing touchdowns in the regular season, and 40 pass plays of 20+ yards. 10 of them were 40+ yards, which is the most allowed by any playoff team. In fact, Chicago had nine, and Carolina had nine, in regular season. The Texans allowed eight pass plays of 40+ yards, second-most among AFC playoff teams behind the Broncos.
We're going to see Allen go well in excess of his passing yardage projection, which is surprisingly low.
On the flip side, the Bills were No. 1 in passing defense in the regular season, allowing just 2,894 yards, with 13 interceptions. They're going to get Nix to commit at least one miscue.
Best Prop Pick: Bills QB Josh Allen - Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Broncos QB Bo Nix - Over 0.5 Interceptions (-109 DraftKings)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
After spanking the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road on Monday night, the Houston Texans pack their bags again this weekend, meeting the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium at 3 p.m. EST on Sunday. That game is available to view or stream on ABC and ESPN.
The good news is that the Texans won rather handily. The bad news is that star WR Nico Collins suffered a concussion, as did special teamer WR Justin Watson, and both players are out for Sunday's game. Texans WR Christian Kirk stepped up his play in Pittsburgh once Collins went down, with eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, giving QB C.J. Stroud a dependable, NFL-caliber downfield threat with Collins on the shelf.
Kirk's offensive explosion was shocking, as he had just 28 receptions for 239 yards and a TD in 13 regular-season games. So, there is some risk here, especially since New England was ninth in the NFL in regular season in passing yards allowed (3,512). However, the Patriots also allowed 25 passing touchdowns. And, with New England heavily favored at home, the expectation is that the Texans are going to need a pass-heavy offense, particularly in the second half, as they're likely to be playing from behind. We'll go high in Kirk's surprisingly low totals, but let's also look at Stroud.
Stroud has 32 pass attempts in a win in Pittsburgh, with RB Woody Marks in and out of the lineup, and RB Nick Chubb continuing to provide little in the way of production. With the Texans expected to be playing catch-up, Stroud should easily go for 32+ pass attempts here.
In addition, Stroud was a bit shaky early on against the Steelers, and the Patriots will try to collapse the pocket and make things uncomfortable for him, as they attempt to coax a miscue. Look for at least one interception due to the pressure.
Also, we'll look to TE Dalton Schultz to be a safety valve for Stroud, with Collins out. Schultz managed three receptions in Pittsburgh, but he has five or more receptions in seven of the past 11 games since Nov. 16. He should be able to get to five grabs in New England.
Best Prop Pick: Texans WR Christian Kirk - Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Texans QB C.J. Stroud - Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-113 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Texans QB C.J. Stroud - Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Texans TE Dalton Schultz - Over 4.5 Total Receptions (+100 BetMGM)
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Rams head for the Windy City to battle the Bears on Sunday night at 6:30 p.m. EST on NBC and Peacock. It's going to be frigid, too, with temperatures forecast for the high teens, with a 25 percent chance of flurries and winds blowing 12-15 MPH. As such, we should get a little more of a ground-based game.
The Bears were gouged for 2,287 rushing yards in the regular season, most among all NFC teams in the playoffs, yielding 5.0 yards per carry. Expect RB Kyren Williams to get to at least 74 total scrimmage yards despite the frigid conditions.
We'll keep an eye on RB Blake Corum, too. He should sub in quite frequently, giving Williams a chance to warm up. The good news is both players starred at northern universities, with Williams at Notre Dame, and Corum at Michigan, so they're used to the conditions. Corum should see at least 11 total carries.
In addition, I like the Over on Bears QB Caleb Williams going Over 246.5 Passing + Rushing Yards. He tends to make things happen with his arm, and his feet.
Best Prop Pick: Rams RB Kyren Williams - Over 73.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Rams RB Blake Corum - Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (+110 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Bears QB Caleb Williams - Over 246.5 Pass+Rush Yards (-111 Caesars)
Best Prop Plays - Divisional Round Weekend
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Best Prop Pick: Bills QB Josh Allen - Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Broncos QB Bo Nix - Over 0.5 Interceptions (-109 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Texans WR Christian Kirk - Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Texans QB C.J. Stroud - Over 31.5 Pass Attempts (-113 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Texans QB C.J. Stroud - Over 0.5 Interceptions (-115 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Texans TE Dalton Schultz - Over 4.5 Total Receptions (+100 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Rams RB Kyren Williams - Over 73.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Rams RB Blake Corum - Over 10.5 Rush Attempts (+110 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Bears QB Caleb Williams - Over 246.5 Pass+Rush Yards (-111 Caesars)
