Every offseason move matters for fantasy football. Coaching changes, free agent departures, depth chart shifts and injury recoveries reshape how we should value players heading into draft season.
In this edition of the NFL Barometer, we'll focus on wide receivers whose value should climb after an offseason that improved their prospects. New quarterback situations, reduced target competition and scheme upgrades have created openings for which the market has not fully accounted. If you're building your draft board, pair this with RotoWire's wide receiver rankings to see where these players are landing.
If you've missed any previous installments of this series, you can find them here.
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Wide Receiver Upgrades
Justin Jefferson, Vikings
Jefferson is the best receiver in the NFL. I will concede that Ja'Marr Chase and Puka Nacua, who have different styles, may be tied with Jefferson as the best, but the fantasy community is offering a gift as Jefferson is often the sixth receiver off the board.
I thought Jefferson was quarterback-proof going into last year. I was wrong. J.J. McCarthy ruined the Vikings in 2025.
Let's take a Jefferson refresher course. In his last three healthy seasons with reasonable quarterback play, Jefferson averaged 113 catches, 1,653 yards and 9.3 touchdowns. New quarterback Kyler Murray is well above the baseline as a reasonable passer.
Jefferson will be no worse than the WR3 in fantasy this season. Buy the dip and thank me later.
Check RotoWire's ADP tracker to see if the discount is still available.
DJ Moore, Bills
I had egg on my face last year. I was unwilling to believe that when Moore's former coach, Ben Johnson, complained about Moore's body language, it would actually lead to the star receiver seeing just 85 targets, his fewest since 2018.
Although Moore was a fantasy bust last season. he proved that his talent didn't disappear. He scored 17-plus PPR points in six of his last 12 games. Moore is still elite when he's used in the passing game, and now as Josh Allen's new No. 1 receiver, the 29-year-old should bounce back in a huge way.
Allen has lacked a strong outside receiver for two years. Look for Allen to feed his new alpha. Moore's an easy buy at WR22 cost, which is after pick 45 in average drafts.
Jaylen Waddle, Broncos
Denver coach Sean Payton has coveted a receiver who can be a monster after the catch. Last year in Weeks 7-11, Payton tried to make Troy Franklin the lead wide receiver. In that span, Franklin had nine targets per game, which was significantly more than Courtland Sutton.
Despite two good games, the Franklin experiment failed, and Payton increased Pat Bryant's role while diminishing Franklin's. Moving to Waddle, he has not had a good season since 2023. In all fairness, Tua Tagovailoa's arm limitations were too much for Waddle to overcome.
Now in Denver, expect Waddle to step into the Weeks 7-11 role that was attempted with Franklin last year. With Payton's scheme and Bo Nix's stronger arm, Waddle is one of the most undervalued players in fantasy at a WR23 price.
Josh Downs, Colts
Downs was on a star-level trajectory until last year. In 2023, he posted 771 yards and two touchdowns. Downs followed that up with 803 yards and five touchdowns in only 14 games.
Unfortunately, the receiver's snap share fell from roughly 75 percent all the way to 55 percent in 2025, which explains the sharp regression in Downs' stats. There is optimism that Downs will play a full-time role with more reps on the perimeter this year. Michael Pittman was traded, and Indianapolis didn't aggressively seek to replace him. After No. 1 receiver Alec Pierce, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and seventh-round draft pick Deion Burks are the only competition for Downs. For a player of Downs' ability, this is no competition.
It's not a guarantee the snaps go back up, but the probability points that way. If he's the clear No. 2 wide receiver, he has top-30 potential at the position.
He's a great value anytime after pick 100 with an ADP of WR48.
Quentin Johnston, Chargers
After being selected in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Johnston was largely viewed as a bust after one season. That proclamation was a bit premature. Johnston averaged 53 catches, 723 yards and eight touchdowns the last two seasons.
Yes, he still has occasional issues with drops and consistency, but the improvement is real. With new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, deep targets should rise. The coordinator's offense should stress opposing defenses at all levels.
The Chargers also should run the ball well. That rushing presence should allow Johnston to see schemed-up deep shots and continued red-zone work.
The WR50 price is not accounting for an improved offense. Johnston's floor is better than that cost, and you get breakout potential. Target Johnson before his WR50 ADP for upside.
Stay informed with fantasy football news and track usage roles with the NFL depth charts.
The Final Word
The theme across all of these wide receivers is the same: the market is stuck on last year's production and hasn't caught up to where these players are headed. Jefferson is the headliner. Buying the best receiver in football at WR6 because of one bad quarterback season is the easiest call on this list.
Moore and Waddle are the bounce-back plays. Both have proven they can produce at elite levels, and both landed in situations that should unlock that ceiling again. Downs is the quieter riser with a clear path to expanded snaps, and Johnston offers the kind of breakout upside you want at a WR50 cost.
If there's one takeaway from this installment, it's that last year's disappointments don't define this year's value. Jefferson at WR6 is the best discount on this list, but Moore at WR22 isn't far behind.
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