2026 Stats
W-L
0-1
ERA
4.12
WHIP
1.73
K
18
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2026 Fantasy Outlook
Cavalli encountered multiple setbacks following March 2023 Tommy John surgery, which led to him going nearly three years in between major-league appearances when he rejoined the Nationals' rotation in August of this past season. The right-hander's velocity not only returned but was actually better, as he averaged 97 mph with his four-seamer. Cavalli picked up plenty of swings and misses with his four-seamer, curveball and changeup with a whiff rate in the 72nd percentile, but a strikeout rate in the 18th percentile didn't match up. Some positive regression in that area is likely, although he could revert in the other direction with his control, as Cavalli's 6.8 percent walk rate in his 10 starts with the Nationals was much better than the 10.5 percent walk rate he posted in the minors. After clearing 120 innings in 2025 between the majors and minors, Cavalli shouldn't face significant workload restrictions in 2026. Read Past Outlooks
Signed one-year, $870,000 contract with the Nationals in January of 2026. Contract includes $4 million team option for 2027.
Goes just four innings Saturday
Cavalli didn't factor into the decision Saturday against the Giants, allowing three runs (one earned) on seven hits and no walks with five strikeouts across four innings.
Analysis
The Nationals' Opening Day starter, Cavalli has managed to go five innings in just one of his five starts to this point. Saturday marked his first start without walking a batter, but the Giants made Cavalli work deep into at-bats and got his pitch count up to 92 through four frames. Cavalli's five strikeouts matched his season high, but he's not going deep enough into games to be worthy of fantasy starts at the moment. Cavalli owns a 4.12 ERA and 18:12 K:BB across 19.2 innings. Cavalli is slated to face Atlanta in his next start Thursday.
The Nationals' Opening Day starter, Cavalli has managed to go five innings in just one of his five starts to this point. Saturday marked his first start without walking a batter, but the Giants made Cavalli work deep into at-bats and got his pitch count up to 92 through four frames. Cavalli's five strikeouts matched his season high, but he's not going deep enough into games to be worthy of fantasy starts at the moment. Cavalli owns a 4.12 ERA and 18:12 K:BB across 19.2 innings. Cavalli is slated to face Atlanta in his next start Thursday.
Pitching Stats
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2026 MLB Game Log
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2025
2024
2023
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2020
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
79
Last 10 Games
79
Last 5 Games
75
How many pitches does Cade Cavalli generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Cade Cavalli generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2024
-12%
BAA vs LHP
2026
-70%
BAA vs RHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024vs Left | .272 | 38 | 11 | 43 | 4 | |||
| Since 2024vs Right | .308 | 20 | 16 | 36 | 3 | |||
| 2026vs Left | .400 | 11 | 3 | 18 | 0 | |||
| 2026vs Right | .121 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .221 | 27 | 8 | 25 | 4 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .381 | 13 | 7 | 32 | 3 | |||
| 2024vs Left | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| 2024vs Right | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2024
-61%
ERA at Home
2026
-64%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2024Home | 2.38 | 1.35 | 34.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | ||||
| Since 2024Away | 6.03 | 1.75 | 34.1 | 6.6 | 4.2 | ||||
| 2026Home | 2.08 | 1.73 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | ||||
| 2026Away | 5.73 | 1.73 | 11.0 | 8.2 | 6.5 | ||||
| 2025Home | 2.49 | 1.22 | 25.1 | 8.9 | 2.5 | ||||
| 2025Away | 6.17 | 1.76 | 23.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | ||||
| 2024Home | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| 2024Away | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Cade Cavalli compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
1.50K/9
8.2BB/9
5.5HR/9
0.0Fastball
96.1 mphERA
4.12WHIP
1.73BABIP
.370GB/FB
1.53Left On Base
61.8%Exit Velocity
80.3 mphBarrels/BBE
2.5%Spin Rate
2242 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
17.3%Swinging Strike
8.9%Prospect Rankings History
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
Cavalli represents a cautionary tale for those looking to invest in young pitchers expected to return from Tommy John surgery this summer. He was due back in June of 2024 -- 15 months after his TJS -- but he experienced setbacks and dead arm and only pitched 8.1 innings across three rehab starts before getting shut down. At his best, Cavalli is a power righty with a full pitch mix and a high-strikeout ceiling as a starter, but it's possible he'll never fully return to form or that he could just end up a reliever due to durability issues. Cavalli's command was never a strength, and that's the last thing to return for pitchers returning from surgery, so he could have quite a bit of rust to knock off. The Nationals will continue to explore his potential in the big-league rotation in 2025, although he may be eased into things at Triple-A.
More Fantasy News
Struggles with command in loss
Cavalli (0-1) took the loss Monday against the Pirates, allowing four runs on three hits and three walks while striking out two over 1.1 innings.
Analysis
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Early exit in no-decision
Cavalli didn't factor into the decision Tuesday, allowing two runs (one earned) on four hits and four walks over 4.2 innings in a 7-6 extra-inning loss to the Cardinals. He struck out three.
Analysis
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Doesn't factor in decision
Cavalli did not factor into the decision Wednesday against the Phillies, allowing one run on five hits and two walks while striking out three across six innings.
Analysis
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Goes 3.2 innings in opener
Cavalli did not factor into the decision Thursday against the Cubs, allowing three runs (two earned) on three hits and three walks across 3.2 innings. He struck out five.
Analysis
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Blanks Mets in final tuneup
Cavalli allowed three hits over five scoreless innings during Saturday's Grapefruit League game against the Mets. He struck out one without walking a batter.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Arbitration hearing expected
Cavalli requested $900,000 and was offered $825,000 by the Nationals when arbitration figures were exchanged last week, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Analysis
A less than $100,000 difference doesn't seem to be something worth going to an arbitration hearing over, but it seems that's the direction this is headed. Cavalli -- who is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time -- finally made it back to the majors in 2025 after missing time with injury, putting up a 4.25 ERA and 40:15 K:BB in 48.2 frames covering 10 starts.
A less than $100,000 difference doesn't seem to be something worth going to an arbitration hearing over, but it seems that's the direction this is headed. Cavalli -- who is eligible for salary arbitration for the first time -- finally made it back to the majors in 2025 after missing time with injury, putting up a 4.25 ERA and 40:15 K:BB in 48.2 frames covering 10 starts.