Mastering fantasy football auction values can be one of the most challenging elements of a draft strategy. Getting a head start on these values can be hugely helpful, but early auction values often don't tell the whole story. These figures can move notably based on offseason personnel changes, such as free agency and the NFL Draft.
We've put together this auction values primer to show you why offseason prices shift and how you can use those shifts to your advantage. We begin by discussing using early auction values as a starting point, then delve into key factors that drive auction prices on a fantasy football cheat sheet in the period before draft day.
We'll then cover which player types see the biggest price drops by August, review how to use the ADP-to-auction value gap as an effective strategy and then tell you when you should lock in your auction budget.
Using Early Auction Values As a Starting Point
Early auction values are set before training camps, depth chart battles and injuries have played out. The goal of these values is to establish a broad baseline estimate with the expectation that those auction prices are likely to change as the RotoWire fantasy football projections are adjusted later on.
RotoWire and other fantasy football platforms generate these early values by reviewing past performance, expected future usage, a player's place on NFL depth charts and schedule strength. Since prior-year performance is a main factor being used, it's not a good idea to treat these figures as gospel in June or July, which is a common error fantasy managers make.
Factors That Drive Auction Prices In Months Before Draft Day
There are many catalysts that push a player's auction price higher as the season approaches. The main ones include training camp hype, beat reporter buzz, a competitor landing on the NFL injury report or a rookie failing to impress.
Changes to a running back depth chart are another factor that frequently moves a player's place on the fantasy football rankings. For instance, a team may go into training camp thinking that they will operate a platoon or committee setup, but end up changing that mindset because one running back shows that he is capable of being a lead back. Once that lead back role becomes clear, that running back's fantasy football ADP value will skyrocket.
Which Players See the Biggest Price Drops by August
Every player is subject to auction price reductions in the RotoWire fantasy football draft kit, but certain player types, such as aging veterans, injury-prone pass-catchers or QBs on new teams will tend to see their auction values deflate as more information becomes available.
This is why wise fantasy managers will cap their early optimism levels on these types of players. Anyone who forgets to do this will often see those hopeful views give way to realistic projections once real practice reps are observed. You can use of your subscription to RotoWire to help keep expectations at a reasonable level from the start.
"The biggest singular factor that can drop a player's price in August is an injury, especially if it's a player who already has an injury history," RotoWire fantasy expert Jake Letarski said. "That player may be more likely to sit out Week 1 and beyond based on the latest news, causing many prospective owners to jump ship. Watch carefully! This could represent a buy-low opportunity for you if the price dips too low."
How to Use the ADP-to-Auction Value Gap as a Strategy
It's a good idea to cross-reference early auction values with ADP trends to find inefficiencies. A very effective way to do this is with frequent practice drafts through the RotoWire fantasy football mock draft software. This is a surefire method to identify players the market is pricing inconsistently across formats.
Another effective method in this area is to track value movement over time. That will showcase players who have volatile ADP values, and thus may end up in the overpriced column. You should also set a personal budget ceiling for your preferred players and for each fantasy football position. This isn't a hard and fast figure, but sticking with a plan can help you avoid a costly draft day investment that hinders your bidding ability later. The RotoWire fantasy football draft assistant can be a huge help in this area.
When to Lock In Your Auction Budget
Do not fall into the trap of constantly adjusting your auction budgets in response to every news cycle. Major news can justify immediate price adjustments, but you can take the long view with most news items.
A good rule of thumb here is to do a final audit of auction prices roughly one to two weeks before the draft. This will familiarize you with the latest auction prices and keep you from scrambling to adjust on draft day.
"Don't lock yourself in too much to a positional budget or player price," said Letarski. "Let the flow of the draft guide you. The best fantasy managers come with a strategy, but are willing to adjust it based on what the draft gives them. Maybe you decided ahead of time you were only going to spend $5 on a tight end, but if the top tight end option is about to go for $10 under your projection, you have to step in and make sure that doesn't happen."
