Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Bears vs. Rams

After eight games blew past the 50-point barrier Sunday, we get what is expected to be a bit of a lower-scoring affair Monday night as the Rams are 5.5-point home favorites in a game with a 44.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Bears come in atop the NFC North thanks to their 5-1 record, while the Rams' 4-2 record had them tied with the Cardinals for second in the NFC West before their win over Seattle on Sunday night. The Rams' wins have come against each of the four NFC East teams, but losing to the Bills and 49ers, while the Bears' lone loss came against the Colts in Week 4. Both teams come in with very strong defenses, though only one of their respective offenses has been helpful for fantasy teams this season.

QUARTERBACKS

The two quarterbacks in this game have produced very different results this season, with the Rams' Jared Goff ($10,400 DK, $15,000 FD) accounting for multiple touchdowns in four starts, including three with three, and he threw for more than 265 yards four times. Meanwhile, the Bears' Nick Foles ($9,800 DK, $13,500 FD) threw three touchdown passes in his first start, which came in Week 3 against the Falcons, but he hasn't had multiple touchdown passes since (in fairness, he had a rushing touchdown last week against Carolina, which marked the first time he rushed for positive yards in a game).

Goff, the most expensive player on both sides, has his work cut out for him, as the Bears have allowed the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, holding five of six to fewer than 255 passing yards and none have thrown multiple touchdown passes. Meanwhile, it isn't going to be easy for Foles, as the Rams' defense has allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, which looks solid but may be more so since they gave up five touchdowns to Josh Allen (311 passing yards and four passing touchdowns plus one rushing touchdown) and three touchdowns to Jimmy Garoppolo last week. Otherwise, the other four they've faced didn't score multiple touchdowns nor throw for 270 yards, and two (Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen) threw for fewer than 200.

Given their tough matchups, we may not see either quarterback overly popular, at least as captain/MVP, especially since they have pass catchers who could be the highest-scoring players on the slate and they're cheaper (at least compared to Goff). Of course, plenty will still want to correlate those players with their quarterbacks, so it's not like we're going to get these guys on a low percentage of rosters.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

It doesn't happen often, but two good defensive teams have led to not a single wide receiver getting an upgrade in Mario Puig's Week 7 Corner Report; in fact, four of the top six were downgraded. However, we cannot ignore them.

Chicago's Allen Robinson ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD) is the second-most expensive player on DraftKings and fifth-most on FanDuel, which isn't surprising given how much Foles, and Mitchell Trubisky before him, likes to throw to his WR1. Robinson leads the Bears in all relevant receiving categories, and he ranks first league-wide in targets (66), fourth in receptions (40), 10th in receiving yards (474) and fourth in air yards (663). He's been targeted at least nine times in every game this season, and is the obvious starting point for the Bears' offense. However, he faces a Rams defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, including four games with zero touchdowns allowed to the position. Moving away from Robinson gets us to guys who may not be as big of a focus for the Rams, but they're also not as good.

Darnell Mooney ($4,400 DK, $8,000 FD) has been the most popular wideout other than Robinson, with 19 targets in the past three games, and while that's decent for the Bears, he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 2 and is still looking for his first game with at least 55 yards. Anthony Miller ($2,200 DK, $7,500 FD) used to be the No. 2 before Mooney took over, and the former has barely been useful for fantasy purposes, topping out at 41 yards since his four-catch, 76-yard, one-touchdown outing in Week 1. Mooney also has the depth of target advantage thanks to his 414 air yards versus Miller's 301, making his 13.8 aDOT more attractive than Miller's 11.6 since neither are likely to make an impact from a volume perspective.

Realistically, Jimmy Graham ($7,200 DK, $9,500 FD) is where some will go if they look beyond Robinson, as the tight end is second on the team in targets (36), receptions (22) and receiving yards (203), while he leads them in receiving touchdowns (four) and red-zone targets (10), including targets inside the 10-yard line (six) and five-yard line (four). Despite a decent number of targets, Graham is still pretty touchdown dependent to make a meaningful impact for fantasy players because he doesn't account for high yardage, eclipsing 35 yards just once this season.

The list of "other guys" for the Bears isn't short, though they're all pretty short on reasonable fantasy value, including backup tight ends Cole Kmet ($1,800 DK, $5,500 FD), who scored a touchdown last week, and Demetrius Harris ($400 DK, $5,000 FD), plus wide receivers Ted Ginn ($600 DK, $6,000 FD) and Javon Wims ($200 DK, $5,500 FD), who haven't been targeted since Week 4; Ginn at least leads the team with a 19.2 aDOT on his six targets (he caught three for 40 yards but nothing since Week 4).

The wildcard in the group is Cordarrelle Patterson ($1,400 DK, $6,500 FD), who has basically been acting like the backup running back since Tarik Cohen suffered a torn ACL in Week 3. However, he's only gotten seven rushing attempts in the past three games, so it's not like he's getting a lot of opportunities back there while barely participating in the passing game. However, he's a big play waiting to happen, and his low price will surely be enticing to some, even those who don't make a ton of lineups.

The Rams' passing offense isn't as focused on a single receiver, though Cooper Kupp ($9,200 DK, $14,500) and Robert Woods ($9,000 DK, $14,000 FD) dominate the opportunities, which is why they are more expensive than everyone but Goff on FanDuel, while the quarterbacks and Robinson are ahead on DraftKings. Kupp and Woods are very similar receivers, and their stats reflect that:

If there is a separator, we can look at the Corner Report again and see that Kupp only gets an "even" rating while Woods gets a downgrade, but it's not like Kupp is in a great spot. While the Rams have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, the Bears have allowed the third-fewest, including just one touchdown in six games. The Kupp-Woods situation feels a bit like the "Godwin or Evans?" question from last season or the "Lockett or Metcalf?" one this year, except they run similar types of routes. Both figure to be popular, and it theoretically makes sense to get both without Goff if he doesn't really throw to anyone else, though that's an expensive endeavor against an elite defense.

If you're looking for the potential of big points on few targets, Josh Reynolds ($2,800 DK, $7,000 FD) is likely the guy, as he's third on the team in targets (21) and receiving yards (226), and his 12.6 aDOT is the second-highest, barely below Van Jefferson ($800 DK, $6,000 FD) at 12.7. Reynolds is likely the pick of the two given that he's had at least four targets in four straight games, and he scored a touchdown last week against San Francisco, while Jefferson hasn't had multiple targets since Week 2. Not to be ignored, tight end Tyler Higbee ($6,200 DK, $10,500 FD) has just as many targets as Reynolds, catching 18 for 222 yards, and his three touchdowns tie him with Woods for the team lead. However, all three came in Week 2 against the Eagles, and he has just one red-zone target since. Backup tight end Gerald Everett ($4,800 DK, $6,500 FD) has been decent recently, with four targets in each of his past two games, but he hasn't been an option in the red zone and comes in with a 6.6 aDOT that's to be expected for a tight end (Higbee is at 6.7).

If the game ends up being low-scoring, and the Bears do a good job of limiting Kupp and Woods, it may not be the craziest idea to captain/MVP Higbee if he scores one or two of their few touchdowns, and it's not a move most will do.

RUNNING BACKS

With two defenses that are elite against the pass, maybe we should focus on the running backs. David Montgomery ($8,400 DK, $11,500 FD) dominates the backfield touches for the Bears, as Cohen is the only other running back on the team with a carry this season, and he's been out since Week 3. Montgomery is coming off a season-high 19 carries against the Panthers last week, but he only rushed for 58 yards while catching four of five targets for 39 receiving yards, a pretty poor outing against a defense that really struggles against the run. However, we know he's going to get the touches out of the backfield against a defense that's allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season, though they are tied for 17th in yards per carry allowed (4.34). Maybe more disappointing for those interested in Montgomery is that the Rams haven't allowed a running back touchdown since Week 2 (they faced the Bills, Giants, Football Team and 49ers in that span). However, Montgomery still figures to be somewhat popular for those who want some of the Bears' offense because they have just been so good against the pass.

The Bears aren't as good against the run as the pass, but they still rank better than the Rams, allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. The difficulty is that the Rams' backfield is a bit of a committee, with Darrell Henderson ($8,200 DK, $12,000 FD) at least at the top of the depth chart, leading them in carries (72), rushing yards (348), rushing touchdowns (three) and red-zone carries (three). Backup Malcolm Brown ($3,400 DK, $10,000 FD) is used mostly on passing downs, with his 18 targets and 12 receptions the fifth-most on the team, and he's seen his rushing attempts decrease in almost every game, getting only two carries last week against the 49ers.

The presumed secret weapon is Cam Akers ($1,000 DK, $7,000 FD), who coach Sean McVay said two weeks ago would get more playing time, only to see him on the field for one snap against San Francisco, destroying beautifully made showdown lineups that used him at captain (no bitterness here at all, folks). The price is nice for those who think McVay will finally unleash Akers, but he really can't be in the conversation for those looking to build optimal lineups for cash games. Henderson has risk, but he's probably the safest if you want to go there. Captaining any of them seems a bit tough, though it'll probably be contrarian because the Rams prefer to throw more than run.

KICKERS

An expected lower-scoring game puts both kickers in play, though they'll likely continue to be more popular in cash games than GPPs. The Rams' Samuel Sloman ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD) is expected to be replaced soon, but Kai Forbath hasn't passed COVID testing after signing last week, so the former will get once more chance to show he can hold a job. He hasn't missed a field-goal attempt in the past three games, but he also only had one attempt in each, and he missed a PAT in each game during that span, which is why Forbath is likely to take over. 

On the other side, Cairo Santos ($3,800 DK, $8,500 FD) hasn't missed a PAT all season, and he was six-of-six in his last three games, with half coming in Week 6 against Carolina, including a 55-yarder. The Bears' offense doesn't provide as much touchdown optimism as the Rams, so it seems more likely Santos will be the kicker fantasy players gravitate to if they want that position in their lineups. However, when priced around guys like Mooney, Everett, Brown, Reynolds and Miller, they don't figure to be popular in GPPs because of their limited upsides.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Two elite defenses will be in the roster discussion, even if neither are cheap. The Rams ($5,600 DK) haven't forced a turnover in two straight games, but they had a three-game run between Weeks 3 and 5 with 17 total sacks, and while Foles doesn't take many, it's still something to consider since he's not the most mobile of quarterbacks. The Bears ($5,200) can get to the quarterback too, posting seven sacks in the last two games while also forcing four turnovers. Goff isn't usually prone to interceptions, and he doesn't take a lot of sacks either, but the variance can certainly work in our favor.

Given their prices, it seems more likely people will play kickers over defenses despite the latter having touchdown upside, which is the important thing to focus on because allowing few yards or points isn't likely to be enough for fantasy scoring.