This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Sunday Night Football
It hasn't been easy, but following a thrilling home win against the Bengals, the three-peat-chasing Chiefs sit at 2-0. They head into their first interconference clash of the season on Sunday night against the Falcons. Atlanta comes in off its own spirited Week 2 home victory, knocking off the Eagles with a last-minute TD drive.
The visit from the defending champions sets up a second straight formidable test for prize offseason addition Kirk Cousins. Meanwhile, the Chiefs look to make matters a bit less interesting for themselves than they were over their first two games, when they sealed and recorded, respectively, their wins on the last play of the contest.
Without further ado, let's dive into the best betting scenarios for this Week 3 showdown.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds for NFL Week 3
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Moneyline: Chiefs -160 (BetMGM)/ Falcons +150 (BetRivers)
Point spread: Chiefs -3 (BetRivers)/ Falcons +3 (-102, FanDuel)
Totals: Under 46.5 points (DraftKings)/ Over 46.5 points (BetRivers)
The spread for this game has not seen much movement, with the moderate variance based on the idea of the Falcons being very competitive in this matchup. Kansas City sat as a four-point favorite before Week 2, which bumped up to 4.5 after its Week 2 win over Cincinnati. Atlanta's comeback against Philly on Monday night spurred bettors back into action, driving the spread down to 3.5 by midweek, and then whittling it down to three points by Friday afternoon.
The total has proceeded on a downward trajectory despite the offensive talent on either side of the ball. The number sat at 47.5 before Week 2 games, and it still posted at 47 points before the Falcons' Week 2 MNF victory. However, with Atlanta putting up a modest 35 points overall through two weeks and Kansas City's running game in flux following Isiah Pacheco's fractured fibula, the number continued downward to 46.5.
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Picks This Week
The Chiefs lost more than a running back when Pacheco went down. The third-year back offered plenty of value beyond his on-field contributions with his never-say-die approach and infectious enthusiasm. However, from a football perspective, KC seems to have a whole-is-greater-than-the-sum-of-its-parts committee ready to step in and piece together a serviceable ground attack while Pacheco misses a projected 6-to-8 weeks.
Veteran Samaje Perine could open as a big part of that effort, even as he still acclimates to the team's offense after signing in late August. Keaontay Ingram, a 2022 sixth-round pick of the Cardinals who never got much of an opportunity in Arizona, is also in the mix. However, the intriguing Carson Steele, a rookie listed as a fullback on the depth chart but much more of a true tailback in his college days, may actually operate as the de facto No. 1 back in Week 3.
The eclectic trio could muster enough to give Patrick Mahomes a semblance of an honest defense to work against. However, speaking of the two-time MVP, this sets up as a game where he and his talented group of pass-catching weapons should take center stage. One of the biggest factors besides Pacheco's absence that makes that likely is the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. It will make the likes of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy even more of a challenge to keep up with than usual.
It's worth noting Atlanta's 156.0 passing yards per game allowed through two games could very well prove largely a mirage. The Falcons faced the toothless Steelers passing game in Week 1 and then had the good fortune of avoiding A.J. Brown (hamstring) when facing the Eagles in Week 2. Philadelphia essentially has zero viable depth behind Brown and DeVonta Smith, which made the task of defending the Eagles' air attack exponentially easier. The challenge posed by the likes of Mahomes, Rice, Worthy and Travis Kelce does not resemble anything that Raheem Morris' squad has seen.
On the Falcons' side, Cousins tangles with a Chiefs defense that applies plenty of heat, not good news for a mostly immobile and aging signal-caller that comes in off an Achilles tear. KC has a relatively modest four sacks through two games, but with Chris Jones leading the charge and Steve Spagnuolo drawing up creative defensive schemes, the Chiefs can stymie any offense on any given Sunday. That looks especially conceivable against a Falcons squad that's clearly still finding its footing in new coordinator Zac Robinson's scheme. They put up just 226 total yards in Monday night's win.
Speaking of that victory, the timing of it also puts the Birds at a one-day rest disadvantage. That may not have as much of an effect early in the season – and it helps somewhat that this is another primetime game – but it's still not an ideal situation when getting a visit from the champs, which also happens to be an out-of-conference squad.
With the Falcons not yet maximizing their weapons and Cousins likely still shedding some rust while also learning a new offense, I will go with the team that has both more talent and continuity in a close game.
Best Bet
Same-Game Parlay: Chiefs -1.5 Alt. Spread and Over 40.5 points Alt. Total (+120 on FanDuel)
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Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons Prediction
Chiefs 24, Falcons 20
Another week, another close call for the Chiefs, but one in which they will emerge victorious. As already noted, I expect Mahomes to shoulder a heavier workload this week. The fast track of the dome environment will prove ideal for that scenario. With the speed at receiver for KC, and Cousins needing to find his way against a tough defense, the champs should have just enough to emerge with the road win.
