This article is part of our NFL Waiver Wire series.
As I covered in last week's free agent acquisition budget (FAAB) article, there are several important factors to keep in mind when planning your strategy for long-term guillotine league success. To summarize: look for ways to improve, but don't overreact to early struggles. The odds of surviving the first few weeks are in your favor, so there's no need to overspend.
So what is the "right" amount to spend on waiver bids this week? That's what we'll examine in this week's article.
If you're feeling desperate due to multiple injuries (Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, Isiah Pacheco) or underperforming players (D'Andre Swift, Zamir White, Michael Pittman), you may want to consider spending a bit more than the recommended bid. If you've been consistently in the top half of your league each week, you can be more conservative, perhaps even just sit back and watch your league mates blow their budgets.
Regardless of your existing roster and early season success (or failure), your goal should be to secure as many of the elite players as you can at a reasonable price. These are the players who you can imagine confidently starting on your championship week roster.
If your team has been struggling, you should also be targeting the next tiers of players. That would include both the players who could consistently start for you for the next few weeks but will probably get phased out by sometime in November as well as the streamers who add depth to the team and will get starts based on favorable matchups or short-term opportunities caused by injuries.
Guillotine League Bidding Cheat Sheet
Quarterback Tiers
| Tier | Player | Pos | Team | Recommended Bid |
| 1 | Josh Allen | QB | BUF | $160 |
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | $120 |
| 1 | Jalen Hurts | QB | PHI | $70 |
| 2 | Kyler Murray | QB | ARI | $60 |
| 2 | Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | $50 |
| 2 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | KC | $40 |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | QB | WAS | $40 |
| 2 | C.J. Stroud | QB | HOU | $25 |
| 3 | Anthony Richardson | QB | IND | $20 |
| 3 | Joe Burrow | QB | CIN | $15 |
| 3 | Brock Purdy | QB | SF | $12 |
| 3 | Sam Darnold | QB | MIN | $10 |
| 3 | Jordan Love | QB | GB | $10 |
| 3 | Baker Mayfield | QB | TB | $5 |
| 3 | Kirk Cousins | QB | ATL | $5 |
| 3 | Jared Goff | QB | DET | $5 |
Through three weeks Josh Allen has confirmed that he belongs atop the quarterback tiers. Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are also championship-level fantasy contributors. If one of the three is available in your league and you don't have a tier 1 or tier 2 QB already, you'll absolutely want to place a bid, but don't panic if you miss out. Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy and Kirk Cousins are among the third-tier throwers who could benefit from favorable matchups the next couple of weeks. Check out the strength of schedule tool to identify matchups to exploit.
It is worth noting that bye weeks are coming in Week 5. I factored that into the valuation of Hurts and other Eagles and Lions stars below.
Running Back Tiers
Week-to-week injuries to Kenneth Walker and Joe Mixon have the two outside of the top tiers. Their questionable availability also makes bidding on backups Zach Charbonnet and Cam Akers tricky this week.
Rookies Braelon Allen and Bucky Irving are moving up the rankings, as they have established roles in New York and Tampa Bay. Both are available in over 23% of guillotine leagues and should be rostered.
Wide Receiver Tiers
If you're looking for bargain bin pickups, look no farther than Tutu Atwell, DeMario Douglas and Andrei Iosivas, who each put up over 13 PPR points in Week 3.
Tight End Tiers
| Tier | Player | Pos | Team | Recommended Bid |
| 1 | Brock Bowers | TE | LV | $30 |
| 1 | Trey McBride | TE | ARI | $30 |
| 1 | Jake Ferguson | TE | DAL | $20 |
| 1 | Dallas Goedert | TE | PHI | $20 |
| 1 | George Kittle | TE | SF | $20 |
| 1 | Sam LaPorta | TE | DET | $20 |
| 1 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | $20 |
| 1 | Dalton Kincaid | TE | BUF | $15 |
| 1 | Kyle Pitts | TE | ATL | $15 |
| 2 | Cole Kmet | TE | CHI | $3 |
| 2 | Mike Gesicki | TE | CIN | $3 |
| 2 | Mark Andrews | TE | BAL | $3 |
| 2 | Isaiah Likely | TE | BAL | $3 |
| 2 | Pat Freiermuth | TE | PIT | $3 |
| 2 | Tyler Conklin | TE | NYJ | $1 |
| 2 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | $1 |
| 2 | Evan Engram | TE | JAC | $1 |
If your draft strategy was to secure an every-week starter at tight end by drafting one early, you are most certainly regretting that decision. If your plan was to wait and find a league-winner like 2023 Sam LaPorta, you also struck out so far, but at least you didn't waste a high pick.
The tight end position is a wasteland right now. Bowers and Ferguson might be the safest options for the next two weeks, as both are healthy and getting targets. Meanwhile, McBride (concussion), Kittle (hamstring) and LaPorta (ankle) are all questionable for Week 4, and Goedert and LaPorta have Week 5 byes. Any of the top nine could finish the season as TE1, but none are likely to lap the field. Save your money. Bid wisely.
Can I Still Join a Guillotine League This Season?
Yes! And the rankings above will be helpful for draft prep too. You can start leagues any week of the season for as long as you want.
Here's how it works:
1. Set up and draft your team just like traditional fantasy football
2. Each week the lowest scoring team gets eliminated
3. All of the players from the eliminated team become free agents
4. A weekly FAAB bidding war starts among the remaining teams
5. Survive the chop and be crowned champion
Public and Private Leagues are open at GuillotineLeagues.com.
