In our latest ADP battle, we debated Brock Bowers vs. Trey McBride. The tight ends are two picks apart and a genuine coin flip.
The market has Bowers as TE1 at pick 22 and McBride one spot behind. The order holds up, but the gap is thin enough that which one you take might come down to what kind of floor your roster needs.
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Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders
Upside
Brock Bowers' 2024 season is the blueprint: 112 catches, 1,194 yards, five touchdowns on 153 targets. That's the most dominant season in NFL history by a rookie tight end.
Last season, Bowers missed five games with an injured PCL, but in his final eight games, even while playing through the knee injury, he scored seven touchdowns.
The target share both years — 26.6 and 22.3 percent, respectively — makes sense considering the Raiders' unimposing receiving corps. And there's still no credible competition for targets. Bowers is the passing game in Las Vegas.
Former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak takes over as head coach this season with a zone-run, play-action system that historically feeds tight ends regularly. That's a direct scheme upgrade from what Bowers has operated in.
A season similar to his 2024 output is squarely in play. In a bad passing offense where everyone else is a question, Bowers could easily exceed it. When he's healthy, his ceiling is arguably the highest at the position.
Downside
The PCL injury is the only thing standing between Bowers and a clean TE1 narrative. In addition to being limited to 12 games last season, he was clearly not healthy for stretches. His receptions dropped from 112 to 64, not because the target share disappeared but because he wasn't available.
Las Vegas is also not a competitive team, which means unpredictable game scripts. A healthy Bowers in a Kubiak system should produce, but there's a version of 2026 where he deals with injuries and you're managing bye weeks and questionable injury tags all season.
Bottom Line
It's not necessarily fair to call Bowers an injury risk because he hurt his knee in 2025. Players get hurt in the NFL. That doesn't make him injury prone.
Bowers is far and away the best pass-catcher on Las Vegas' roster. The targets and production will make the draft cost fair.
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Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
Upside
Trey McBride's improvement arc is the answer to anyone who questions whether he can hold the TE1 throne. Receptions went 81, 111, 126 from 2023-25. Yards went 825, 1,146, 1,239. Touchdowns jumped to 11 in 2025 after just five combined in the previous two seasons.
As good as Bowers' 2024 season was, McBride topped those numbers in 2025. He also missed just one game across three NFL seasons, which is the direct counterargument to Bowers' durability concern.
See how the positional rankings shake out at RotoWire's tight end rankings heading into training camp.
New head coach Mike LaFleur brings a scheme emphasis on motion and the quick game that should continue to create schemed opportunities for McBride. If you want a tight end who will be available and productive every single week, McBride is the answer.
Downside
The late-season numbers need context. Arizona's defense played from behind in a lot of blowouts last year, which inflated McBride's volume in garbage time. If the Cardinals' defense improves in 2026, that game script boost disappears and you're looking at roughly a 10 percent production dip from 2025.
That's not a disqualifier at this cost, but even if McBride had similar volume this season he still wouldn't be expected to match the all-time TE receptions record he set last season. And the Arizona passing game is not likely to have anywhere near the volume it did last season.
What's more, while LaFleur's scheme is an upgrade, if it coaxes a breakout from wide receiver Marvin Harrison, it could come at the expense of McBride.
Bottom Line
The Cardinals would be foolish not to funnel at least 140 targets to McBride. But matching the 169 he saw in 2025, the most all-time for a tight end, is highly unlikely, and 11 touchdowns won't be easy to replicate.
Arizona's defense has a good chance to be better than in 2025, and there is actual competition for targets. He's a clean first or second tight end off the board at this cost, and the floor remains elite.
The Verdict on ADP Fantasy Football TE Values
Bowers is the pick if you're comfortable with the medical history and want the Raiders' unquestioned alpha receiver. The Kubiak system, the target monopoly and the raw talent profile make him the better upside play. When healthy, he's the most valuable tight end in football.
McBride is the pick if you want certainty. He has never missed a game, his production has improved every single year and the scheme change should help, not hurt. The 10 percent regression risk from game script normalization is real but manageable.
Different risk profiles, different picks: Bowers if you're taking him with the 22nd pick and need him to be a difference-maker, McBride if your roster build can afford a reliable TE1 floor over a ceiling play.
Before you lock in your tight end, stress-test the decision in the RotoWire Mock Draft Simulator and see who falls your way at the turn.
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