We covered 12 and 13 personnel last week and how we can use certain trends to our advantage in best ball this year. This week we'll look at 11 personnel, which is an offensive formation with three wide receivers, one running back and one tight end, i.e., 1 RB and 1 TE = 11.
As the league appears to be moving toward more tight end usage on a per-play basis, the downstream effect could be slot-only players having their opportunities pinched. We'll start at the macro level with a look at which teams used 11 the most last season and which used them the least.
I've bolded teams that will have new head coaches or offensive coordinators for 2026, so we can know to take those with a grain of salt.
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Highest 11-Personnel Rate - 2025
| season | team | plays | epa_per_play | total_plays | pct | usage_rank | epa_rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | SF | 954 | 0.080 | 1180 | 80.8 | 1 | 9 |
| 2025 | HOU | 949 | -0.008 | 1216 | 78 | 2 | 22 |
| 2025 | NYJ | 778 | -0.157 | 1009 | 77.1 | 3 | 30 |
| 2025 | DAL | 847 | 0.128 | 1103 | 76.8 | 4 | 3 |
| 2025 | NO | 808 | -0.056 | 1064 | 75.9 | 5 | 25 |
| 2025 | TEN | 750 | -0.178 | 995 | 75.4 | 6 | 31 |
| 2025 | JAX | 844 | 0.051 | 1127 | 74.9 | 7 | 13 |
| 2025 | TB | 795 | -0.001 | 1065 | 74.6 | 8 | 20 |
| 2025 | DEN | 894 | 0.042 | 1203 | 74.3 | 9 | 15 |
Lowest 11-Personnel Rate - 2025
| season | team | plays | epa_per_play | total_plays | pct | usage_rank | epa_rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NYG | 667 | -0.004 | 1079 | 61.8 | 23 | 21 |
| 2025 | LAR | 759 | 0.119 | 1260 | 60.2 | 24 | 4 |
| 2025 | LV | 550 | -0.149 | 942 | 58.4 | 25 | 29 |
| 2025 | SEA | 665 | 0.010 | 1185 | 56.1 | 26 | 17 |
| 2025 | CHI | 688 | 0.078 | 1255 | 54.8 | 27 | 10 |
| 2025 | ATL | 567 | -0.103 | 1036 | 54.7 | 28 | 27 |
| 2025 | PIT | 543 | 0.046 | 1032 | 52.6 | 29 | 14 |
| 2025 | ARI | 543 | 0.002 | 1074 | 50.6 | 30 | 19 |
| 2025 | BAL | 471 | 0.089 | 956 | 49.3 | 31 | 7 |
| 2025 | CLE | 489 | -0.202 | 1028 | 47.6 | 32 | 32 |
Here's how it looks in chart form:
The teams that got the most out of this, based on the highest volume, are somewhat easy to guess. Now, being in 11 isn't inherently good or bad. It's a case-by-case basis. Some teams are best suited to go with three-wide looks while others are at their best with bigger personnel (i.e., two or three tight ends).
Stay on top of these values as draft season heats up with updated fantasy news and RotoWire's NFL depth charts.
11 Personnel Usage: Neutral Scripts
Now, let's look at neutral script usage for 11 personnel. This tells us what teams tend to do when the game is within one score, and there isn't a down-and-distance situation that would skew the decision-making.
From this table, we can glean that the 49ers, Texans, Cowboys, Saints and Broncos all prefer to use three-wide sets if they're in position to dictate their terms.
| team | pct | usage_rank | neutral rate | neutral rate rank | neutral_epa | neutral epa rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 80.8 | 1 | 81.9 | 1 | 0.156 | 3 |
| HOU | 78 | 2 | 79.3 | 2 | 0.001 | 20 |
| DAL | 76.8 | 4 | 76.7 | 3 | 0.176 | 2 |
| NO | 75.9 | 5 | 75.5 | 4 | -0.112 | 28 |
| DEN | 74.3 | 9 | 75.1 | 5 | 0.048 | 14 |
| LAC | 73.4 | 10 | 74.6 | 6 | -0.044 | 26 |
| JAX | 74.9 | 7 | 74 | 7 | 0.057 | 13 |
| TB | 74.6 | 8 | 73.2 | 8 | 0.072 | 10 |
| NYJ | 77.1 | 3 | 72.6 | 9 | -0.252 | 32 |
| BUF | 71.6 | 12 | 70.6 | 10 | 0.129 | 6 |
And here are the teams that are the best at it.
| team | pct | usage_rank | neutral rate | neutral rate rank | neutral_epa | neutral epa rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 65.9 | 17 | 67.3 | 15 | 0.206 | 1 |
| DAL | 76.8 | 4 | 76.7 | 3 | 0.176 | 2 |
| SF | 80.8 | 1 | 81.9 | 1 | 0.156 | 3 |
| LAR | 60.2 | 24 | 63 | 20 | 0.154 | 4 |
| NE | 70.8 | 13 | 69.3 | 12 | 0.13 | 5 |
| BUF | 71.6 | 12 | 70.6 | 10 | 0.129 | 6 |
| CIN | 67.4 | 16 | 65.6 | 17 | 0.11 | 7 |
| BAL | 49.3 | 31 | 50.7 | 30 | 0.098 | 8 |
| CHI | 54.8 | 27 | 55.7 | 25 | 0.082 | 9 |
| TB | 74.6 | 8 | 73.2 | 8 | 0.072 | 10 |
And again in chart form. I promise I'm going somewhere with this:
Takeaways & Insights
Green Bay Packers
I'm really interested to see where coach Matt LaFleur takes this offense this season. For years, the Packers have been one of the most frustrating passing attacks in fantasy because the overall numbers have been good, but the individuals haven't really moved the needle.
| Season | EPA/Pass Play Rank | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 2 | ||
| 2024 | 8 | ||
| 2025 | 1 |
The Packers have had two individual receiver performances finish in the top 36 for a full season since 2023. It was Romeo Doubs with a WR36 finish in 2023 and WR34 in 2025.
A large reason behind that has been the Packers' wide target distribution tendency. Ninety-four players have had a target share of at least 20 percent in the last three seasons. None have played for Green Bay.
| season | team | name | targets | target_share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | GB | R.Doubs | 108 | 17.5 |
| 2023 | GB | J.Reed | 102 | 16.5 |
| 2023 | GB | D.Wicks | 62 | 10 |
| 2023 | GB | C.Watson | 56 | 9.1 |
| 2023 | GB | L.Musgrave | 53 | 8.6 |
| 2023 | GB | A.Jones | 51 | 8.3 |
| 2024 | GB | D.Wicks | 82 | 16.4 |
| 2024 | GB | J.Reed | 80 | 16 |
| 2024 | GB | T.Kraft | 76 | 15.2 |
| 2024 | GB | R.Doubs | 75 | 15 |
| 2024 | GB | C.Watson | 54 | 10.8 |
| 2025 | GB | R.Doubs | 97 | 19.4 |
| 2025 | GB | C.Watson | 62 | 12.4 |
Things look different for 2026, though. Both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are gone and there were no significant additions to the offense. Suddenly, there's less reason for LaFleur to rotate an infuriating amount of receivers.
The Packers might have some semblance of concentrated targets this year. We might actually get Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft and Matthew Golden consistent work every single week. Can you imagine?
As we've established, Green Bay was extremely efficient in 11 personnel last year, even if it didn't use it that much. If the Packers use it more, which they should, the efficiency might come back to earth a little bit. We'd take that tradeoff if it meant feeling confident about where those targets were going each week.
At the moment, the Packers pass-catchers are all relative bargains. Christian Watson goes in the late fifth round. Tucker Kraft and Jayden Reed are at the end of the seventh. Matthew Golden starts the 10th. It's not just that there are so many targets to be redistributed in Green Bay, but that they drew a line in the sand via extensions and a lack of other moves that this is the trio at receiver.
Are there downsides to each of these three? Sure. Watson has durability issues. Reed only plays the slot. And Golden is coming off one of the worst seasons for a first-round rookie in recent memory. The draft capital and upside cases for each of them still make the trio of Watson, Reed and Golden solid picks in my book.
Houston Texans
The Texans are an interesting team for fantasy. They have two players going in the top 50 of drafts, but quarterback C.J. Stroud is being drafted as an emergency safety valve when the good QBs dry up before you can take your QB3. Nobody is excited about this offense. And it's hard to blame them given how they finished last year. There are added contextual factors like the defense being so good that the offense just needs to be okay to have a successful season. And, stop me if you've heard this before, the offensive line is a big question.
Here's a look at how the market approaches Houston. WR2 Jayden Higgins is among the cheapest such players in drafts, and WR3 Tank Dell is going close to pick 200.
From the data above, we can see that Houston likes going three-wide as its base formation. The Texans were in that setup almost 80 percent of the time in neutral situations last year. Were they good at it? Not especially. But they weren't bad, either.
I think that, structurally, there's a way that the Texans' passing game works out for fantasy. They were smack dab in the middle in pass rate over expected last year. Again, not great but not terrible. They're not afraid to throw it, at least.
Where I really want to point our attention is to Higgins and the WR3 situation. Higgins is entering his second year after a solid rookie campaign. After the bye week, Higgins had a 20.5 percent TPRR and had five touchdowns on 58 targets in those 12 games. He has promising athletic metrics as well, and yet the fantasy community is stopping short of labeling him as a Year 2 breakout candidate, as his ADP sits at 122.8. I like taking him there as my WR5, and it opens a path to pulling off a back-stack with Stroud a couple rounds later.
The WR3 dealio is worth our attention. The market says it's Tank Dell. That's the Tank Dell who has two season-ending injuries in two years played. Three if you count the terrible knee injury at the end of 2024 that kept him off the field all 2025. Dell has been great when he's been healthy, but we don't know what he looks like after the aforementioned knee injury. I'm more inclined to take a swing on another second-year Iowa State receiver in Jaylin Noel, who goes in the last round on Underdog.
There's not a ton I can point to from Noel's rookie year that'll wow you. But that's not really a knock; he was a third-round rookie competing with a lot of established players for targets. "But he couldn't beat out washed-up Christian Kirk." If that's your reason to totally shut the door on a guy, then be my guest. Kirk did cook the Steelers in the playoffs FWIW.
In best ball, we want to avoid taking zeroes, even from last-round guys. The three-wide base of the Texans' offense suggests there's room for one of Dell or Noel to give us some usable weeks this season. Dell has shown that he can perform like a player with a much higher ADP, but the injury concerns are real. Noel has less track record, but you only have to pay a last-round price to find out. I'm Texans-curious this draft season because of how easy it is to tack on a stack in the latter portion of a draft. Stroud/Schultz/Noel is there for the taking in almost any draft.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are one of the most important offenses in fantasy this season. They have two top-tier receivers in CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, along with RB17 (Javonte Williams) and QB8 (Dak Prescott). Jake Ferguson is a fringe TE1 for most builds. The oddsmakers have the Cowboys as the No. 5 scoring offense in football entering the season.
A lot of usage is going to go toward those players. However, there's reason to take a swing on a player further down the ADP just in case. Of course, I'm talking about Ryan Flournoy.
Flournoy has gotten buzzy to the point where it's almost a running joke. Hand up, I have a lot of Flournoy so I'm part of the problem, but it's admittedly funny that he has risen 43 draft slots since April. That's the second biggest jump of any player in the whole pool. If you can't laugh at yourself ...
He has 50 career catches and no real prospect pedigree, and yet we're excited about him. Here's a snapshot of how Flournoy performed with and without Pickens or Lamb on the field last year.
He got the most work when Lamb was sidelined last year, but he also cooked up a 115-yard game against the Lions when everyone was healthy. We can't expect Flournoy to hit his ceiling outcome if both Lamb and Pickens are available all season. But the contingent upside is considerable. That seems to be the big selling point among his drafters.
I think it's also fair to point out that Dallas runs a ton of 11 personnel, and Jalen Tolbert's departure clears the path for Flo to play a lot more snaps in 2026.
Flournoy played 285 snaps out wide and 158 in the slot last year. Tolbert was 238 outside, 195 in the slot. Direct competition for reps that no longer exists in Flournoy's case.
Dallas' heavy three-wide usage and Tolbert's departure give Flournoy a path to standalone value in best ball this year. His flashes of brilliance last year give him huge contingent upside relative to other receivers going in the 160s. BRB, gonna go draft another Flournoy share.
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