Yeah, sure, sex is cool, but have you ever drafted an elite top-5 fantasy quarterback outside of the top-10 rounds of the draft?
Presenting: My top-5 favorite late-round QB options for the 2026 fantasy season. To qualify, each quarterback must have a current ADP outside the top-10 rounds (120 picks) on Sleeper and ESPN.
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We'll also really try to check at least one of the following boxes that have historically been correlated to finding late-round gems at the position. Consider these the ground rules for identifying the top late-round QBs of 2026:
- Realistic chance to be a high-volume rusher. Twenty-six of 28 QBs with 100-plus rush attempts in a season have posted top-12 numbers in fantasy points per game the last decade. That's a 93 percent hit rate! And hell, even the two exceptions have reasonable explanations: 2018 Lamar Jackson was a top-12 QB after taking over as a starter (his numbers are skewed from brief appearances earlier in the season) and 2020 Cam Newton was the only 30-plus year old in the sample.
- Benefiting from a new-and-improved play-caller or vastly improved offensive environment. These guys are low in ADP for a reason, so there must be some level of change in their situation to reasonably expect a big boom over consensus. There's particularly been a lot of success stemming from the "McShanahan" coaching tree over
Yeah, sure, sex is cool, but have you ever drafted an elite top-5 fantasy quarterback outside of the top-10 rounds of the draft?
Presenting: My top-5 favorite late-round QB options for the 2026 fantasy season. To qualify, each quarterback must have a current ADP outside the top-10 rounds (120 picks) on Sleeper and ESPN.
Check out all of Ian's rankings and content with a premium RotoWire subscription. Use code "Ian20" for 20% off.
We'll also really try to check at least one of the following boxes that have historically been correlated to finding late-round gems at the position. Consider these the ground rules for identifying the top late-round QBs of 2026:
- Realistic chance to be a high-volume rusher. Twenty-six of 28 QBs with 100-plus rush attempts in a season have posted top-12 numbers in fantasy points per game the last decade. That's a 93 percent hit rate! And hell, even the two exceptions have reasonable explanations: 2018 Lamar Jackson was a top-12 QB after taking over as a starter (his numbers are skewed from brief appearances earlier in the season) and 2020 Cam Newton was the only 30-plus year old in the sample.
- Benefiting from a new-and-improved play-caller or vastly improved offensive environment. These guys are low in ADP for a reason, so there must be some level of change in their situation to reasonably expect a big boom over consensus. There's particularly been a lot of success stemming from the "McShanahan" coaching tree over the years.
- Play in an offense we reasonably expect to score a lot of points. It's July, every team has improved so much and is so awesome, haven't you heard? And hey, no reason for fans to not be optimistic in summer; just realize there are still going to be some REALLY bad offenses out there, so I'd prefer to target QBs on teams that Vegas thinks will be closer to 1 than 32 in scoring.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
1. Jared Goff, Lions
Jared Goff has largely done nothing except smash preseason ADP in recent years.
- 2022: QB27 ADP, QB13 finish in fantasy points per game
- 2023: QB18 ADP, QB15 finish
- 2024: QB19 ADP, QB7 finish
- 2025: QB18 ADP, QB12 finish
Goff has ripped off three consecutive seasons with at least 4,500 passing yards. The rest of the NFL has *six* combined. He leads the NFL in passing touchdowns since 2022. Still only 31 years young, Goff's passing yards over/under (4,099.5) is 100 yards higher than any QB on DraftKings, and his passing touchdown over/under (29.5) ranks third. RotoWire Projections have him top 4 in both.
The only real question is whether new playcaller Drew Petzing could mess things up. After all, the Cardinals ranked only 24th, 12th and 23rd in scoring in his three seasons in charge — should we really expect fireworks in Detroit?
Answer: Probably. Smarter real-life football minds than myself actually like the pairing quite a bit. This is still an offense LOADED with playmakers.
Lions rank in Supporting Cast Rating:
- 2022: 9th
- 2023: 2nd
- 2024: 2nd
- 2025: 7th
Additionally, there's not much reason to expect an overly run-heavy approach in 2026 considering: 1) Petzing's Cardinals led the league in pass attempts in 2025, and 2) The team's decision to trade David Montgomery this offseason.
Goff's utter lack of a rushing floor will continue to make him cheap in drafts and cause fantasy nerds to claim he has "no upside." Well, Goff has eight top-5 weekly fantasy finishes the last two seasons, which only trails Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow. That's it. That's the entire list. I'd say the man is pretty capable of putting up big point totals!
Verdict: I was surprised to see Goff even qualify for this study, let alone easily on ESPN. There is no reason for Goff (pick 152.8) to be going 5.5 rounds after guys like Matthew Stafford (QB8, 97.1) and Dak Prescott (QB9, 98). Maybe the utter lack of any rushing production hinders Goff's chances of putting up sky-high top-5 numbers, but it's tough to find another late-round QB with an easier and more realistic path to being a consistent top-12 performer this season. Only catch: Start looking for a reasonable QB streamer well in advance of Goff's Jan. 3, Week 17 matchup at Chicago.
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2. Kyler Murray, Vikings
Kyler Murray hasn't exactly been playing to the best of his abilities in recent years. His highs in 2020 and 2021 were quite awesome and helped him secure that initial $230.5 million bag from the Cardinals, but unfortunately, things simply haven't been as good in recent years.
We can see this quite clearly with adjusted net yards per attempt, which factors in touchdowns, interceptions and sacks into the traditional pass yards-per-attempt equation.
So yeah, REALLY not great in 2025 — BUT it's also not like we've been looking at an overly stable situation here both in terms of Kyler's offensive environment as well as his own health.
- Murray tore an ACL on Dec. 12, 2022
- HC Kliff Kingsbury was fired following the 2022 season
- The Cardinals hired HC Jonathan Gannon and OC Drew Petzing prior to the 2023 season
- Murray suffered a foot injury in early 2025 that landed him on the sideline for what wound up being the entire season
Of course, the latter injury was viewed as a "soft benching" with Jacoby Brissett generally doing a good job of leading this passing offense. This is the toughest obstacle for Kyler truthers to get around: Our most recent sample size of the 2025 season was ROUGH any way you cut it.
That said, there's still reason for optimism thanks to three key factors.
1. Some advanced stats still painted Murray in a positive light in 2025. Specifically, EPA per dropback (+0.06, 15th) and PFF passing grade (69.5, tied 22nd). The former mark was better than guys like Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert, while the latter cleared the likes of Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones and Baker Mayfield.
2. This remains one of the position's most dangerous rushers. Last season, Murray actually averaged his most rushing yards per game (34.6) since his ACL injury. The film reflects the reality that this is still a dangerous man in the open field. Overall, Murray's average of 8.5 yards per scramble was good for the position's eighth-highest mark last season and ranked ahead of QBs like Patrick Mahomes and Jaxson Dart.
3. Kyler didn't get a ton of help from his friends last season. Specifically, alleged generational WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who had some rough (and I mean ROUGH) moments early in 2025. Overall, this Cardinals offense simply wasn't very QB-friendly. It finished 28th in my "Supporting Cast Rating," which is the average of every team's rank in PFF rushing, receiving, run-blocking and pass-blocking grades (everything except passing).
Good news: Minnesota finished 13th in Supporting Cast Rating last year! You could even argue it's higher when considering the schematic impact that renowned QB whisperer Kevin O'Connell has had on his passing games over the years. The potential for Kyler to improve his passing thanks to this new-and-improved offensive environment and keep on keeping on as a rusher paints the picture of an exciting late-round fantasy QB option in 2026.
Verdict: Kyler cleanly checks the rushing upside, improved offensive environment and great coach boxes. It's easy to imagine the Vikings out-performing their Vegas scoring projection (20th) … if Kyler's mostly down 2025 wasn't a sign of even more bad things to come. We also do need to consider the reality that Murray's leash is likely shorter than most due to him, 1) Being 5-foot-10, but mostly, 2) J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings far more than any other backup QB on this list. But still, that sure seems baked into this dirt cheap ADP. You'll want to keep another QB on the roster if Kyler is your guy, but he'll be fighting for a top-12 rank as early as Week 1 when it comes time to set those lineups. Fun fact: Even with last year's injury/benching, Kyler still has the same number of top-5 fantasy weeks in the last two seasons (5) as QBs like Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence.
3. Malik Willis, Dolphins
Yes, we are dealing with a small sample with Malik Willis. Originally drafted by the Titans in the third round in 2022, Willis has just six career starts and 155 career pass attempts to his name.
Also yes, Willis was absolute nails with his opportunities in Green Bay. Obviously, Matt LaFleur and the offense's plethora of playmakers deserve a lot of credit, but either way: Willis has functioned as the NFL's most-efficient passer during the last two seasons. Overall, Willis leads all QBs in yards per attempt, adjusted yards per attempt, yards per completion, completion rate, passer rating and explosive pass play rate since 2024.
And yet, it's his performance in two additional stats — EPA per dropback and completion percentage over expected — that are most impressive. That's him all the way up in the top-right-hand corner in the chart below. Not too shabby.
Even more impressive was the manner in which he picked up yards in 2025. His 2024 film was definitely a bit gadgety (7.5 average target depth) and featured the Packers HEAVILY lean on their run game, but we saw a legit increase in aDOT in 2025 (9.7 yards!), which reflected the reality that he was hardly being schemed to success. There are downfield DIMES all over the film.
And hey, all that is cool before even considering the massive plus that Willis brings to the run game thanks to his explosive rushing ability.
- While he didn't run at the combine, Willis reportedly ran a 4.37-second 40-yard dash at Liberty's Pro Day.
- Willis has averaged the position's fourth-most yards per scramble (8.9) the last two seasons.
- Nobody has averaged more yards per rush (10.6) on read options.
This latter tool is particularly important when projecting Willis' fantasy impact in Miami. Remember one of our initial rules: Since 2016, of the 28 QBs with 100-plus rush attempts in a season, 26 (93%) finished as a top-12 fantasy QB in fantasy points per game.
There's also at least some optimism that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik can rekindle some of his 2023 magic; he has spent the better part of the last 15 years working with Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel after all. That said, Willis certainly doesn't check every box we look for. The Dolphins' cheap/bad WR and TE rooms give them a good case as having the league's worst group of pass-catchers, and Vegas fully expects this offense to be one of the lowest-scoring groups in the league (29th).
Verdict: The re-draft price is so cheap. Willis is going next to WRs like Cooper Kupp and Jauan Jennings as well as RBs like Mike Washington Jr. and Braelon Allen! I probably wouldn't want to plan on starting Willis in Week 1, but he's the ideal second QB to throw on a squad that *should* give you something close to a weekly borderline QB1 floor if the history of high-volume dual-threat QBs holds true.
4. Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers
Let's take a quick trip down memory lane and remember Baker Mayfield's last five NFL seasons:
2021: Mayfield and the Browns fail to build upon their promising 2020, undoubtedly in part due to Baker tearing his left labrum in Week 2. The down season compelled the Browns to put their eggs in the Deshaun Watson basket, leading to Mayfield being traded to the Panthers for just a conditional fifth-round pick.
2022: Things didn't go any better in Carolina, as a more bad than good first five starts led to Sam Darnold and PJ Walker instead starting under center. You've seen the scout team d-line picture. Good news (kinda) for Baker: He was claimed off waivers by the Rams, where he managed to lead the team to a fun, last-second Thursday night victory just two days after being signed.
2023: Baker gets a one-year deal worth up to $8.5 million to compete with Kyle Trask as Tom Brady's replacement. Not only does Mayfield win the job, but he sets career highs in passing yards (4,044) and touchdowns (28) on his way to leading Tampa Bay to a surprising NFC North crown and wild card victory over the Eagles.
2024: Mayfield and company soar even higher, as this time he racks up 4,500 yards and 41 scores under OC Liam Coen's direction. The Bucs offense ranks fourth in scoring and captured another NFC North title, but fell to the Commanders in the playoffs on a walk-off field goal.
2025: Arguably nobody was playing the position better during the first month and a half, but then Mayfield fell off in a major way. He was getting warranted MVP chants at home … and then Baker started looking like the pre-2023 version of himself for the first time in a minute. He set three-year lows in most meaningful passing metrics by the end of the season, though injuries certainly seemed to play a role.
The bull case for believing in Mayfield comes down to really believing in that latter point. The full list of issues he played through is actually quite insane (in the membrane):
While we probably can't simply hone in on Mayfield's success in Weeks 1-6 and assume that was going to be the case for the rest of the season, it's clear that Baker — with MANY of the offense's other key contributors — were operating at less than 100 percent for most of the second half of the season. This at least adds some credibility to the idea that we could see a bounce-back to 2024 form in fantasy land.
Mayfield fantasy points per game by season:
- 2023: 16.1 (QB17)
- 2024: 21.5 (QB4)
- 2025: 16 (QB18)
You know whose three-year fantasy stretch looks very similar to that? Joe Burrow! Look for yourself. Of course, Burrow's 2023 and 2025 seasons were impacted by injuries … but again: The same is true for Mayfield last year, yet nobody seems to be overly factoring that in considering the man's early ADP.
Now, we don't have elite rushing upside here (though Baker certainly can scoot), and in no world does losing Mike Evans constitute an upgrade in terms of pass-catchers. That said: New OC Zac Robinson is technically from the McVay family tree, and Vegas is reasonably excited about the scoring upside of the offense (15th).
Verdict: Baker's 2024 campaign does admittedly look a LOT like the outlier season when peering at his career numbers. The health factor is certainly a big deal, though I just really struggle to look at this overall offensive environment and see anything more than an average to below-average group. Is the value still solid THIS late in drafts? Sure, but it'd be a lot cooler if Baker is a prospective second QB LATE-round dart than someone we actively want to depend on as early as Week 1. In that light, I do really like the idea of reuniting former Oklahoma teammates Kyler and Baker on the same fantasy squad.
5. Tyler Shough, Saints
The soon-to-be 27 (!) year-old Tyler Shough ripped off four top-12 finishes during his final eight games of the season, and as a whole, he worked as the QB12 in fantasy points per game (17.2) after taking over under center in Week 9.
The man has a big arm, can throw with touch, and has enough athleticism to make plays on the run and out of structure. That's a solid set of skillz to build around!
That said, the aforementioned lackluster second-half schedule certainly played a role in Shough's success. His performances with 250-plus passing yards came against the Panthers (24th in EPA allowed per dropback), Jets (32nd), Titans (29th) and Falcons (13th). It was also surprising to see him find so much success as a rusher (45-186-3) — he had just 132 yards (excluding sacks) and one touchdown in 12 games during his final season at Louisville.
Look, the path to success is clear: Shough builds off his promising late-season stretch with an extra year of familiarity inside an offense with a potentially VERY improved supporting cast. That profile is certainly deserving of late-round consideration, though Vegas is skeptical of the actual scoring upside here (23rd), and the rushing upside is definitely far more good than great.
Verdict: Saints fans should be thrilled about finally potentially finding their long-term post-Brees answer under center, but I'm skeptical. Shough's numbers in EPA per dropback (+0.03, 23rd among 30 QBs), success rate (45.1%, 23rd) and completion percentage over expected (+1.6%, 15th) were more fine than special — and can we really expect the same level of year-to-year improvement from someone who will already be 27 when September ends? (Shoutout Green Day). Anyways, Shough is a fine enough later-round second best-ball or superflex QB, but I'd feel much better about rolling with any of the four previous options to start the season, especially with Shough's opening five-week schedule not looking too hot.
Best of the Rest
Quick thoughts on what disqualified the other potential options:
Jordan Love does have a QB5 finish to his name back in 2023, but we haven't seen him replicate those sneaky-solid rushing numbers since, and Matt LaFleur has generally been happy to put forward a more run-heavy offense. That assumption could change if Josh Jacobs is suspended. Vegas does like the group (8th in scoring). He was the toughest exclusion.
Sam Darnold joins Goff as the NFL's only QBs with 4,000-plus passing yards each of the last two seasons. What happened to our glorious game? Kudos to the Super Bowl champion for deploying some awesome efficiency with the Vikings and Seahawks; just realize volume could be tough to come by on a team that (again) figures to want to run the ball and lean on its amazing defense. It's just tough to envision a top-5 ceiling.
Daniel Jones is coming off a torn RIGHT Achilles injury, AKA his power/throwing leg. The offense didn't even try to replace Michael Pittman, and Jones' ace field-stretching WR Alec Pierce looks at least somewhat iffy for Week 1 while recovering from ankle surgery. No thank you.
C.J. Stroud, like Love, did some really good things in fantasy land in 2023. Also, like Love, there just weren't enough offseason changes made to the offensive environment to really believe in the ceiling. Vegas seems to agree with the Texans ranked 19th in scoring.
Cam Ward has a FUN two-minute highlight tape, but I'm sorry: I don't trust Brian Daboll or a group of pass-catchers that, while improved, is still very raw and objectively deserves to be closer to 32 than 1 when assessing its potential relative to the rest of the league.
Bryce Young deserves a lot of credit for having the Panthers less than 2 minutes away from taking down the Rams in the playoffs last year, but man, when pretty much every available stat (other than downfield passing) says you're a bad QB, it's tough for me to believe. The (tiny) man has never reached 14 fantasy points per game!
Even if Fernando Mendoza finds his way onto the field sooner rather than later, how much can we really expect given he'll likely be operating a run-first offense with a bottom-two WR room in the NFL? Yeah, yeah, the national championship scramble touchdown was sweet, but we also can't exactly expect Jayden Daniels/Lamar Jackson rushing numbers. Vegas has this group ranked 28th in scoring.
Aaron Rodgers is just too old, man. I mean, look at him. He's OLD.
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