DraftKings Best Ball: High Ceiling Targets In Late Rounds

Happy Best Ball Week over at DraftKings. I've teamed up with DraftKings this week to take a swing at identifying some of the best late-round picks in DraftKings Best Ball contests the rest of the summer. Remember that you can claim your BOGO entry into DraftKings' Biggest Best Ball contest ever at the link below.

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There are a ton of ways to round out your roster. You can focus on playoff correlation, you can look to complete stacks, and you can look for the floor plays who may not pop much but are unlikely to be zeroes for your team. 

Or ... you can hunt upside. Our data science team, spearheaded by RotoWire colleague Paul Mammino, has come up with RotoWire's ceiling/floor projections for the 2026 season. We'll focus on ceiling for this article, with the idea being that these are the players' 75th percentile outcomes. 

I asked Paul to give a quick synopsis of the ceiling/floor projection process:
 

The ceiling projections use a combination of two things to determine the values. 

Part 1: Role upside - Our projections are based on shares of team totals for things like rushes and targets.

Part 2: Efficiency Upside - every player has efficiency numbers as part of their projection. The ceiling assumes based on their roles increased efficiency for that player. For example, maybe a particular downfield WR may have a lower YPT but due to the role, if everything breaks right (Alec Pierce 2025), that player can post extremely high YPT and TD rates.

In short, the projections assume a player reaches higher than "expected" playing time and also has increased efficiency to go along with that. These two levers are pulled leading to the higher projections 

We're narrowing our scope to players with an ADP of at least 160 or higher on DraftKings and will discuss why they're being picked where they are, and how they can be a hit for your team.  

Stay on top of these values as draft season heats up with updated fantasy news and RotoWire's NFL depth charts.

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Wide Receiver

Denzel Boston, Browns

Why He's Drafted Here: Boston's ADP is pretty reasonable at first glance. He's a second-round rookie who profiles to be the No. 4 target in this offense to start the year. And it's not just any offense. It's the Browns' offense. We're not even sure who the quarterback will be in Week 1, let alone Week 17. The downside risks are being properly baked into this ADP. 

Why He Can Smash This ADP: Boston is a big-bodied boundary receiver who was a great downfield target earner in college. He had a 27 percent target share at Washington last year despite nearly 60 percent of his targets coming 10-plus yards downfield. 

The Browns spent a top-40 pick on him in the NFL Draft, and he is a very different archetype of receiver than first-round pick KC Concepcion. Boston can stick outside and be a factor in this offense sooner rather than later.

Now, you may have questions about the structure of this offense. 

Cleveland ran the most 12 personnel (2TE) last year. In comes Todd Monken, the Baltimore offensive coordinator whose offense had the second-most such plays. So maybe there's concern that there will be more of the same, and therefore fewer WR snaps to go around.

That bit of uncertainty is the soft spot that Boston drafters can exploit. Cleveland sent David Njoku packing this offseason, and by virtue of it drafting two receivers in the first 40 picks, we're looking at a much larger emphasis on receivers in this offense.

So, now we can feel better about the snaps for Boston. What about targets? Harold Fannin is a staple, and Concepcion is expected to be an immediate target earner. That leaves Jerry Jeudy as the hurdle. Jeudy is going to have a big role, at least early. But if he performs as poorly as he did a year ago, those looks might start going Boston's way. Jeudy had the worst YPRR of any player with at least 100 targets last year. 

Interestingly, Jeudy pops in the ceiling projections too, but with a lower best-case (128) outcome than Boston. That signals that there probably is a right answer between Boston and Jeudy. It's not going to be both hitting their ceiling. I'd been drafting more of Jeudy throughout most of this draft season, but I'm coming around to jumping on the Boston train.

If nothing else, it's better to get him now before some camp buzz raises his ADP by a round or more. I'm getting convinced that Boston will be more than just a draft-season value, though. He very may have some juice come playoff time.

Antonio Williams, Commanders

Why He's Drafted Here: Williams is a third-round rookie who profiles as a slot-only player. With Washington's depth chart being as thin as it is behind Terry McLaurin and DraftKings having full-point PPR scoring, I'm surprised Williams is not going at least a little higher. However, there seems to be lingering tail risk that Washington is one of the teams primed to sign a veteran free-agent receiver this summer. It just probably won't be Brandon Aiyuk.

Why He Can Smash This ADP: It's simple. Washington doesn't sign a vet, and Williams immediately locks in as Washington's primary slot target. He may still be the third target in this offense overall with Chig Okonkwo's arrival, but that's still something the market would price higher than 163. 

We expect a bounceback from Washington's offense this year, assuming Jayden Daniels stays healthy. This is really one of the thinnest receiver depth charts in the NFL. The opportunity is there for the taking. Williams could play much more than some of his peers who were drafted higher in April. 

There may not be a ton of touchdowns, even in the ceiling outcome, but solid weekly target projection will make his investors happy. 

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, news and everything going on around the NFL, head to RotoWire's NFL Fantasy Football News Today or follow @RotoWireNFL on X.

Running Back

Ray Davis, Bills

Why He's Drafted Here: Two years in and the James Cook Hedgers are fully in the mud. Betting against Cook the last two years via drafting Davis has been a very bad time. Trust me, I can attest. 

The market seems to have stopped believing that either Davis or Ty Johnson will really infringe on Cook's work as long as he's healthy. Cook ranks seventh in the NFL in combined carries the last two years, after all. 

Why He Can Smash This ADP: Well, what if this is the year Cook's monopoly on the backfield gets busted up? It's unlikely, seeing as Joe Brady is still in charge. Brady clearly likes the role he's designed for Cook, and Cook has been extremely effective.

There's still the contingent upside detail for Davis. That's what draws me in just a bit. Historically, running backs drafted this late in best ball have a poor track record of giving their drafters much of anything. But Davis is talented and has only disappointed due to lack of opportunity. If Cook is to miss time, Davis gets a primo role for fantasy as the bell cow of one of the highest-scoring offenses in the league. He won't give you much as a pass-catcher regardless, but he has a skill set that can scale up into a high carry-volume role if things break a certain way. 

Tread lightly, of course, because this bet hasn't worked out at all in either of the last two years and it likely won't this year. But there's no running back other than Davis in this range who could feasibly take on a true RB1 workload if the starter went down.

Dylan Sampson, Browns

Why He's Drafted Here: Quinshon Judkins is trending toward being ready for Week 1 and will eat up a high share of the rushing work. This typecasts Sampson into a passing down specialist with little rushing volume upside on a week-to-week basis.

Why He Can Smash This ADP: The pass-catching ability is strong, which is very helpful on DraftKings. Judkins is average as a pass-catcher, so giving Sampson that work maximizes his utility while also keeping Judkins fresh. 

Additionally, it's fair to project some growth for Sampson as a rusher. He had a tough go of it as a rookie, but it's worth noting he was 21 and playing in a bad offense. Sampson was an excellent rusher in college who popped for 22 touchdowns in his final year at Tennessee. He should be better in that facet than what we saw a year ago.

Solid weekly passing game volume will help Sampson flirt with flex viability every week, and some improvement in the ground game will push him closer to being a fringe top-100 player in fantasy. That's a worthwhile swing to take at that stage of drafts. 

Tight End

Gunnar Helm, Titans

Why He's Drafted Here: There's market-wide skepticism on the Tennessee offense. Cam Ward is coming off a tough rookie campaign, and there's a new offense being installed. The Titans brought in a pair of players — Wan'Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate — who should eat up a significant amount of targets. Helm could be stuck in a low-volume role without the big-play ability to offset it.

Why He Can Smash This ADP: Helm had a promising rookie season despite competing with Chig Okonkwo for opportunities. With Okonkwo gone, the door is open for Helm to play upward of 700-plus snaps. He might have less blocking work to deal with, too, as the Titans brought over blocking specialist Daniel Bellinger from the Giants.

Despite all the factors working against him last year, Helm quietly caught 80 percent of his targets and scored well in target-earning and efficiency metrics with a 23.3 percent TPRR and 1.51 YPRR. The 23 percent TPRR won't happen again with all the new shiny toys in Tennessee, but he could offset that with another step forward in YPRR. 

He has the added advantage of a good rapport with Ward already, while Tate and Robinson will have to develop that. 

Helm might not be a touchdown or yardage monster, but it wouldn't surprise me if he drew close to 100 targets and converted them at a high clip. That's a great TE3 type of profile on DraftKings. 

AJ Barner, Seahawks

Why He's Drafted Here: Barner doesn't appear to have the type of role that gets rewarded in full-PPR scoring. Or at least, that's not his reputation. Drafters are, of course, expecting Jaxon Smith-Njigba to eat up 30-plus percent of the targets again and are expecting a bigger role for Rashid Shaheed as well. Barner also blocks a lot as part of his duties, running routes on just 43 percent of his snaps. He adds value there, so it might not change meaningfully, even with a new offensive coordinator in town.

Why He Can Smash This ADP: Barner is rewarded with a slightly bigger target share and maintains his 2025 efficiency. I put my thumb on the scale a little bit here, but this isn't a bad list for Barner to be on. He's a lot of fun to watch, and his ability in the red zone is promising. 

Also, the Shaheed detail re: targets is merely speculative, too. And Shaheed has the type of skill set that doesn't lend itself to a huge target share anyway. He's at his best as a downfield specialist while Barner runs his routes in higher percentage areas of the field.

If we see Barner get into the 80 target zone with 2025 efficiency, we have a slam dunk pick that goes in the 16th round. 

Honorable Mentions

Chris Bell, Dolphins - ADP 211, Ceiling Rank 144

By virtue of taking him with one of your last picks, you ideally wouldn't even need Bell to be semi-useful until bye weeks start hitting. That's fine in Bell's case since he may not be ready for game action the first month anyhow, given that he tore his ACL late in his final season at Louisville. There's a steep discount relative to the talent; Bell could have been a second-round pick without the injury. If you look at the Miami receiver depth chart, is there anyone really standing in Bell's way if he recaptures his previous form? Bell's season-long ceiling case is almost immaterial to me. If I'm drafting Bell, it's because I think he can be a starting receiver by the time the fantasy playoffs come around. 

Colbie Young, Bengals - ADP 230, Ceiling Rank N/A

I'm going off-board here. I might need to remind myself that there's a difference between best ball mindset and dynasty. Oh well.  We need some production out of each player we take in best ball, and Young may be a year or more away.

My case for Young is that the Bengals' offense is 1) the best passing game in the NFL for my money and 2) extremely top-heavy. The top two pass-catching options, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, go in the top-40 picks. After that? Mike Gesicki may or may not go before the 17th. Andrei Iosivas is nominally the WR3 and barely has an ADP (228.8). 

There has to be a third option in the passing game. I've mentioned Erick All in another late-round targets article, but there's room for the No. 3 receiver to do something here. Iosivas has yet to post a YPRR over 1.0 yard in any of his three seasons. His job is far from locked in despite being the nominal incumbent.

Young doesn't really have a slot skill set at 6-foot-5, 218, to be fair, but again, it's not like Iosivas is killing it there either. What Young does have is a massive catch radius. He has big-play ability and could have been drafted higher if not for two truncated seasons in 2024 and 2025. 

He's really only of interest if you already have Joe Burrow on your team. Still, it's interesting to me that the biggest "ceiling gap" (ADP - Ceiling Rank) for the site is Iosivas. That implies there's potential juice in taking a swing on the WR3 in Cincy. I'm just saying that I'd rather take my chances on the mystery box in Young than the known 0.8 YPRR commodity in Iosivas.

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