This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Games
Kansas City Chiefs -8
This line started at seven in most places and I usually hesitate to take any favorite who are over a touchdown favorite on the road. However, I think the Raiders are a bit overrated and Andy Reid has had an extra week to prepare for this game. The Chiefs have covered this number in six of their nine games this season showing they'll keep their foot on the gas. There could also be some extra motivation for the Chiefs to avenge their loss to the Raiders earlier this season.
Philadelphia Eagles +3
I know the Eagles are coming off a bad showing last week but are the Browns good enough to be laying three against a team who is in first place in the NFC East. Seriously, the Browns are terrible against the pass and this seems like a great game for Carson Wentz to right the ship. Miles Garrett appears to be heading towards missing this game which should allow Wentz to get the ball to Dallas Goedert, Jalen Reagor and Travis Fulgham.
Atlanta Falcons +155
I don't think the 3.5 point spread is going to make a difference so I'd just rather grab the money line. As bad as the Falcon are against the pass, they should focus all of their energy on slowing down Taysom Hill and the Sean Payton's experiment is a failure.
Chargers Over 13.5 points 1st Half (-134)
The Chargers are the biggest favorite of the week and the Jets will be missing corners Brian Poole (shoulder, IR) and possibly Bless Austin. I like this line because the Chargers will have their foot on the gas in the first half as they attempt to build a lead as opposed to trying to run the clock with a league in the second half.
Player Props
Derrick Henry Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-134)
Normally I don't like taking overs that are this high but I'll make an exception. The reason for that is both Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams are both listed as doubtful. This is a huge hit to the Ravens defensive line meaning there'll be more holes for Henry to run through. The Titans will lean heavily on Henry and if you like this prop, sprinkling a little on the Tennessee money line (+230) makes sense.
Carson Wentz Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+114)
As stated earlier, I like the Eagles in this game and think Wentz bounces back. Before last week he had four straight games with two touchdown passes. The Browns are allowing two touchdown passes per games this season on average and weather shouldn't play a role this week in Cleveland.
Tee Higgins Under 72.5 Receiving Yards
Higgins has been a beast and is coming off a 115-yard game. The two weeks before he had 78 and 71 receiving yards against both the Titans and Browns so this line seems a little fishy. However, if you look at those matchups, Higgins did this against teams who rank 25th, 27th and 28th against wide receivers. The Washington Football Team ranks second against WRs and I still feel like Tyler Boyd is the top wide receiver in this offense.
Dallas Goedert Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
There's no Zach Ertz this week and we all know by now that Carson Wentz loves utilizing his tight end. Last week Richard Rodgers had the more productive game but Goedert got six targets which he turned into four catches for 33 yards. Cleveland is 20th against the position and I like the idea of taking a little bit on the Goedert anytime touchdown at +300. This is my second favorite bet this week.
Jakobi Meyers Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (-134)
Meyers has established himself as the Patriots top wide receiver recording games of 57 and 169 receiving yards over the last two games. That his total was 57 receiving yards last game makes this line a tad suspicious but that was in a bad matchup against the Ravens. The Texans are a different story as they've been horrible against the pass this season.
Player Touchdowns
Taysom Hill +150
Ok, ok. I know I'm on Atlanta but you have to think if/when the Saints get inside the 10-yard line they will call Hill's number multiple times. That line of play calling makes sense if for nothing else to justify Sean Payton's decision to go with him over Jameis Winston. At the end of the day though, Hill is talented and don't be surprised if he has a better passing day than anticipated. This is the wager I like the most this week.
Keenan Allen +110, Hunter Henry +150
This is one of those situations every week that I like taking both players, making a profit if one hits and it's gravy if both do. While the Jets have had a week off they have to travel across to face the Chargers, who should be in a bad mood after last week's loss.
Michael Pittman +250, T.Y. Hilton +250
I actually think Green Bay wins this game but there's a high over/under (51) for this game with a small line (Colts -2). That suggests a healthy point total for the Colts at home who should score around 27 points. Neither have a touchdown this season and is due which is horrible analysis. That being said, I'm going to take this.
