DraftKings NFL: Week 8 Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Weather hasn't been a major factor for fantasy football this year, but it appears that will change in a big way come Sunday. Forecasts for Green Bay, Cleveland and Chicago show winds above 20 miles per hour, and Cincinnati and Buffalo aren't too far behind.

We'll take that into account with our discussion below, especially after oddsmakers dropped the over/unders for the games in the Midwest. There's also a 'Weather Report' section at the end of this article where we'll list all the games with potential to be hit by heavy winds or significant precipitation.

As always, I'm happy to discuss strategy in the comments below, or on twitter (@JerryDonabedian).

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1:00, 4:05 and 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

(Bold for over/unders of 52+ and implied totals of 26+)

Point-Per-Dollar Value / Cash-Game Stars

These are the players with the best projections relative to their DK salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our tourney lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few "chalk" picks. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

• RB Kareem Hunt vs. LV ($6,900)

Most of the RB value on the Week 8 slate depends on unresolved injury situations, but Hunt is one where we don't need to monitor practice reports, as the Browns already said Nick Chubb (knee) would miss at least one more game. The Raiders have given up 32.6 DraftKings points per game to running backs, and Hunt is coming off a week with 90 percent snap share, 18 carries, four targets and 19.2 DK points.

• WR Keenan Allen at DEN ($6,200)

Averaging 10.5 targets and 18.2 DK points, Allen would be a great value at this price in all but the most difficult of matchups. While the Denver defense certainly is respectable, it isn't quite on the level where we want to pass up this combination of talent, volume and price. Also keep in mind that Allen missed the majority of one of his games (17 percent snap share Week 5 at New Orleans), and he's otherwise averaging 13.25 targets with Justin Herbert as the starting quarterback. This is a lay-up for cash games, and good enough value to give it a run in tournaments even with the certainty of high ownership.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Russell Wilson vs. SF ($7,800)

QB Joe Burrow vs. TEN ($6,200)

RB Alvin Kamara at CHI ($8,200)

RB Jamaal Williams vs. MIN ($6,100) - if Aaron Jones (calf) is out

RB Giovani Bernard vs. TEN ($5,800) - if Joe Mixon (foot) is out

RB Myles Gaskin vs. LAR ($5,200)

WR Tyler Lockett vs. SF ($7,100)

WR A.J. Brown at CIN ($6,900)

WR Diontae Johnson at BAL ($5,400)

WR A.J. Green vs. TEN ($4,500)

WR Kendrick Bourne at SEA ($3,500)

TE George Kittle at SEA ($7,000)

TE Noah Fant vs. LAC ($4,700)

TE Hunter Henry at DEN ($4,200)

TE Harrison Bryant vs. LV ($3,200)

D/ST Green Bay Packers vs. MIN ($2,900)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of any tournament lineup, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the contest, hoping to take advantage of a tight game where both teams are still chucking the ball around late in the fourth quarter. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.

San Francisco 49ers (25.5) at Seattle Seahawks (28.5)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Seahawks - 22nd (28.12 second per play),  49ers - 31st (29.58)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Seahawks - 26th (31.46),  49ers - 32nd (33.16)

Neither of these teams is fast-paced, and the Niners actually are dead last in seconds per snap in neutral situations. Regardless, this game has the top over/under (54) of the week, mainly because the Seahawks have been dominant on offense and lousy on defense. And it's not just that their offense is good; it's that it tends to score points in a hurry with big plays.

49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400) hasn't reached 300 yards in a game this year, but he did have more than 250 both of the past two weeks, including 268 and three TDs in a Week 6 win over the Rams. He's dirt-cheap by QB standards on DraftKings, and his scoring average (13.3) is weighed down by two games (Weeks 2 and 5) where he was removed early. A healthy Garoppolo in a good matchup with good weather is one of the better QB plays this week, even with Deebo Samuel (hamstring) unavailable.

Samuel's absence leaves George Kittle ($7,000), Brandon Aiyuk ($5,600) and Kendrick Bourne ($3,500) as the top pass catchers, while JaMycal Hasty ($5,000) could be the lead runner if Tevin Coleman (knee) isn't ready to return from IR. Kittle's five appearances this year have yielded two performances with triple-digit yardage and a touchdown, and he's averaging a career-high nine targets per game.

Aiyuk put up his first 100-yard game last week in New England, and we saw a similar ceiling back in Week 3 when he caught five of eight targets for 70 yards and added 3-31-1 on the ground in a game Samuel missed. In addition to a boosted target projection, the rookie should get at least one or two carries each week while Samuel is absent.

Bourne isn't as explosive and probably won't get any carries, but he did see either five or six targets in each game Weeks 1-4, averaging 3.3 catches for 49.3 yards in that stretch. Bourne played 92, 74 and 83 percent of snaps in the three games Samuel missed in September, running routes on 98 of San Francisco's 105 QB dropbacks (93.3 percent), per PFF. Granted, Aiyuk was out for Week 1, and Kittle missed Weeks 2-3. This will be the first game we've seen with Aiyuk, Kittle and Bourne all playing and Samuel not playing.

Seahawks

Russell Wilson ($7,800) has scored 24.9 or more DK points in every game this year, averaging 32.6 as he threatens to make a run at multiple NFL records. The 49ers defense looked good the past two weeks, but it's still missing a bunch of key players and only has 12 sacks through seven games.

Tyler Lockett ($7,100) had his career-best performance on SNF last week, which means his price is still lower than DK Metcalf's ($7,500). The two had been neck and neck all year, but Lockett now has 14 more targets and two more TDs. That makes him the clear choice for cash games, while there's an argument for either (or both!) in tournament lineups. The Niners have been pretty tough on slot receivers as well as perimeter targets, so there isn't an obvious choice in terms of the WR/CB matchups (and Lockett runs nearly half his routes outside anyway).

Greg Olsen ($3,600) is a solid NO for me, after Will Dissly ($2,800) took a bigger chunk of playing time in last week's loss to Arizona. And while David Moore ($3,100) tends to do well with his opportunities, he's still splitting snaps and routes with Freddie Swain ($3,000). I'd rather limit my Seattle exposure to Wilson, Lockett and Metcalf, plus DeeJay Dallas ($4,000) IF Chris Carson (foot) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) both end up inactive. Of course, the sketchy RB situation could also mean more passing for Wilson... yee-haw!

• Best Stack: QB Wilson + RB Hasty + WR Lockett + WR Metcalf + WR Bourne

Titans (29) at Bengals (23.5)

Pace Outlook

Overall Pace: Titans - 3rd (25.16),  Bengals - 9th (26.46)

Neutral-Situation Pace: Titans - 4th (28.20),  Bengals - 11th (29.25)

Both teams are Top 10 in pace, and Top 12 in neutral-situation pace. As a bonus, the Bengals will probably be even more pass-heavy than usual if Joe Mixon (foot) misses another week. On the other hand, we could see both teams lean on their rushing attacks if the wind becomes a major issue. The forecast for Cincinnati doesn't look quite as bad as Green Bay, Chicago or Cleveland, but it's something we'll at least need to monitor. The over/under moved from 55.5 to 52.5, reflecting some concern about the weather.

Titans

Ryan Tannehill ($6,800) is the real deal, and he's averaging 33.8 pass attempts per game, up from 27.0 as a starter last season. The Cincinnati defense is very much the opposite of the real deal, ranking 26th in DVOA against the pass (18.8%) and 25th in NY/A (7.0), despite facing a September/October schedule with only one fantasy-star QB (Lamar Jackson in Week 5).

A Tannehill stack is pretty simple for me, with A.J. Brown ($6,900) an easy choice and either Corey Davis ($5,000) or Jonnu Smith ($4,100) making sense as a third wheel. There's also the option to tack on Derrick Henry ($8,000), in which case I might use only one of the pass catchers. Davis actually has an 18-16 target advantage over Brown in the two games they've played together, with Smith adding 11 targets and Henry getting six in those games. Smith looks pretty darn cheap, btw.

Bengals

Joe Burrow ($6,200) has looked great since his Week 5 meltdown in Baltimore, throwing for 313 yards in Indianapolis and then putting up 38.6 DK points on the Browns. No Mixon could mean another week with 45-plus pass attempts, and the rookie already averages 41.9.

Tyler Boyd ($6,600) gets a huge price increase after last week's explosion, but he also has a fantastic matchup in the slot against Tennessee. Then we have Tee Higgins ($5,600) and A.J. Green ($4,500), with the former holding the efficiency advantage while the latter looks better in terms of volume and price. I might go with Higgins if the prices were closer, but the savings with Green is too much to ignore.

Last but not least, Giovani Bernard ($5,800) will be a solid play if Mixon does indeed miss another game. Gio got 13 carries and five targets last week, including a go-ahead TD reception in the fourth quarter. You can use him in a Burrow lineup, or as a bring-it-back for a Tannehill/Titans stack.

• Best Stack: QB Burrow + RB Henry + WR Boyd + WR Green

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Justin Herbert + RB Melvin Gordon + WR Keenan Allen + TE Hunter Henry

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Diontae Johnson + TE Mark Andrews

QB Tannehill + WR Brown + WR Green + TE Smith

QB Garoppolo + WR Lockett + WR Bourne + TE Kittle

RB-Defense Pairing

We can pair a running back with his team's defense to double our bet on favorable game script in certain matchups. Just keep in mind that the scoring correlations aren't nearly as strong as those between quarterbacks and pass catchers, so it isn't worth forcing into a lineup unless the prices for each individual commodity make sense. We also need to account for specialized backfield roles, e.g., using Jonathan Taylor rather than Nyheim Hines with the Colts defense.

• RB Jamaal Williams ($6,100) + Packers D/ST ($2,900) vs. MIN

This assumes Aaron Jones ($7,300) is out another week with his calf injury, though we could also use Jones instead of Williams if it turns out the Packers' starter is ready to play. Williams got 19 carries and five targets on 89 percent of snaps last week, and he'll now return home to face a shaky Vikings defense in a game where strong winds could encourage Matt LaFleur to dial up more running plays and screen passes. The Packers defense hasn't been good this year, but there's a lovely upside scenario if Kirk Cousins is forced to throw a bunch of passes while playing from behind in lousy weather.

Honorable Mention: RB Kareem Hunt ($6,900) + Browns D/ST ($2,600) vs. LV; RB Alvin Kamara ($8,200) + Saints D/ST ($3,400) at CHI

High-Priced Hero

• RB Alvin Kamara at CHI ($8,200)

Road game? Check. Tough defense? Check. Bad weather? Check. Fading Alvin Kamara? No thanks. The conditions here may not be great, but the price is still way, way lower than it should be, with Kamara averaging 28.9 DK points on 12.5 carries and 8.8 targets per game. Fun fact, Pt. I: He leads the scrimmage yards. Fun fact, Pt. II: He already had his bye week. Boom!

Honorable Mentions: QB Russell Wilson, SEA vs. SF ($7,800); RB Derrick Henry, TEN at CIN ($8,000); WR Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. SF ($7,100); TE George Kittle, SF at SEA ($7,000)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players carrying high ownership without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• WR Davante Adams vs. MIN ($8,800)

Maybe I'm still mad at myself for last week's genius-brain play of using Marquez Valdes-Scantling instead of Adams in tournament lineups. But I'm also pretty worried about the weather in Green Bay, and it's easier to bite the bullet on high ownership when a guy doesn't have his own price tier (or if he plays RB rather than WR).

Other Fades: WR Tyreek Hill, KC vs. NYJ ($6,700); TE Travis Kelce, KC vs. NYJ ($6,600)

The SMASH Spot

Volume may be king, but we still need to account for efficiency, pinpointing situations that are likely to lead to impressive production in terms of YPA, YPC or YPT.

• WR Kendrick Bourne at SEA ($3,500)

Even with Deebo Samuel (hamstring) out, Bourne is only the third option in the San Francisco passing game. Normally that would be a big problem, but it's already baked into the price, and he's looking at the type of matchup where Option C could get six or seven targets. The Seahawks are 30th in pass-defense DVOA (27.9%) and 32nd in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers (64.0 per game), with an explosive offense, absentee pass rush and subpar secondary creating optimal conditions for opposing WRs in terms of both volume and efficiency.

Honorable Mention: RB Kareem Hunt, CLE vs. LV ($6,900); TE Darren Waller, LV at CLE ($5,600)

The Bargain Bin

QB Cam Newton at BUF ($5,7000

QB Derek Carr at CLE ($5,500)

QB Jimmy Garoppolo at SEA ($5,400)

RB J.K. Dobbins vs. PIT ($4,600) - if Mark Ingram (ankle) is out

RB Le'Veon Bell vs. NYJ ($4,600)

RB La'Mical Perine at KC ($4,300)

RB DeeJay Dallas vs. SF ($4,000) - if Chris Carson (foot) and Carlos Hyde (ankle) are out

WR T.Y. Hilton at DET ($4,900)

WR A.J. Green vs. TEN ($4,500)

WR Mike Williams at DEN ($4,400)

WR Rashard Higgins vs. LV ($4,200)

WR Darnell Mooney vs. NO ($3,500)

WR Jakobi Meyers at BUF ($3,500)

WR Kendrick Bourne at SEA ($3,500)

WR Marquez Callaway at CHI ($3,400)

WR Denzel Mims at KC ($3,200)

TE Eric Ebron at BAL ($3,900)

TE Harrison Bryant vs. LVR ($3,200)

TE Irv Smith at GB ($3,000)

D/ST Detroit Lions vs. IND ($2,500)

Injury Situations

The "Sunday Scramble" doesn't need to be stressful. We can plan our response ahead of time for various scenarios that could emerge once inactive lists are released.

• RBs Chris Carson + Carlos Hyde + Travis Homer

Carson, Hyde and Homer were held out of practice both Wednesday and Thursday, leaving fourth-round pick DeeJay Dallas ($4,000) as the only healthy running back for Seattle. The team has mostly used Homer as a passing-down specialist with a focus on blocking, so his presence wouldn't necessarily block Dallas from a lead role. The rookie will become one of the top values of the week if both Carson and Hyde are inactive. The Seahawks aren't carrying a running back on their practice squad, but they'll presumably need to sign someone before Sunday if they have two or three guys unable to play.

• RB Dalvin Cook

Cook (groin) seems to be on track to play and would be a reasonable DK option at $7,500, but it's also worth mentioning Alexander Mattison ($6,000) in the event of another Cook absence. That didn't work out so great last time, but it could look better coming out of a bye week to face a poor run defense, especially if bad weather limits the impact Aaron Rodgers can have on this game.

• RB Joe Mixon

With Mixon (foot) out last week, Giovani Bernard ($5,800) put up 20.6 DK points while handling 76 percent of offensive snaps. Even with his price sitting $1,300 higher than last week, Gio would make for a strong play if he gets another week in the lead role, facing another mediocre defense (Tennessee).

• RB Phillip Lindsay

Melvin Gordon ($5,600) scored 16.4, 7.8 and 28.8 DK points in the three previous games Lindsay missed. The Denver offense may not inspire any confidence, but the workload projection relative to price will make Gordon a solid play if Lindsay is out this week.

• RB Aaron Jones

Given his 23 touches and 89 percent snap share last week, Jamaal Williams ($6,100) will be my No. 1 value on the main DFS slate if Jones isn't able to return from his calf injury. AJ Dillon ($4,000) was barely a factor last week, taking five carries on 23 percent of snaps.

• RB Tevin Coleman

We already know Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson will be out with ankle injuries, leaving JaMycal Hasty ($5,000) and Jerick McKinnon ($5,700) as the healthy running backs on the active roster. However, Coleman (knee) was designated to return from IR, which doesn't necessarily mean he'll be back for Sunday's game but does at least create the possibility. If Coleman is out, Hasty would be on the map as a tournament play. McKinnon is still the guy for passing downs, but recent usage suggests the Niners haven't been fond of his work as a ballcarrier. Hasty had an 18-9 carry advantage over McKinnon the past two weeks, including 9-to-3 in the Week 7 win over New England.

• RB Mark Ingram

Given the matchup with Pittsburgh, this might just be a situation to avoid altogether. However, there's an argument for both Gus Edwards ($4,400) and J.K. Dobbins ($4,600) if Ingram's ankle injury sends him to the inactive list. Edwards would be the favorite to lead the Ravens in carries, but he only had a 14-9 advantage over Dobbins in the Week 6 game against Philadelphia, and the rookie offers far more potential for receiving contributions. Dobbins would be the one on my GPP radar if Ingram were ruled out.

• WR Allen Robinson

Robinson doesn't seem like a great bet to play just six days after he suffered a concussion on Monday Night Football. His 10 targets per game should be divided between a bunch of players, though it's also possible the Bears just run the ball a ton even though they stink at it. Darnell Mooney ($3,500) is a guy I've had my eye on all year, but even with Robinson out of the lineup, it's hard to feel great about a deep-threat WR catching passes from Nick Foles on a windy afternoon. 

Anyway, the other main candidates for targets are Jimmy Graham ($4,600), Anthony Miller ($4,300) and Javon Wims ($3,000). Wims has been the No. 4 receiver behind Robinson/Miller/Mooney this year, seeing seven targets while playing 29 percent of offensive snaps. Miller has played only 45 snaps all season that weren't in 11 personnel, but it is possible a Robinson absence would allow him to get some more work in two-wide formations.

• WR Tim Patrick

A Patrick absence could force the Broncos to send a few more targets to Jerry Jeudy ($4,800) and Noah Fant ($4,700). The tight end would be the better play, as Jeudy has a three-game streak with either four or five targets, failing to maintain his busy start to the season. You could also make an argument for KJ Hamler ($3,600) as a tournament play, if you really wanted to.

Weather Watch

There's a lot this week, so I'll just give a quick recap for the relevant games, based on forecasts as of Friday morning. RW's Weather Report page can help you stay up to date as Sunday afternoon approaches.

Steelers at Ravens: Light rain, mid-50s, wind around 15 mph. Not ideal, but not too bad.

Jets at Chiefs: Clear skies, ~50 degrees, wind around 10-15 mph. Looks fine.

Vikings at Packers: Cloudy, mid-30s, 20-25 mph winds. Not great for kicking and deep passing.

Raiders at Browns: Chance of showers, mid-40s, 25-30 mph winds. Sounds pretty ugly.

Titans at Bengals: Sunny, high-40s, 20-25 mph winds. Not great for kicking and deep passing.

Patriots at Bills: Showers, high-40s, ~20 mph winds. Not great for kicking or passing.

Saints at Bears: Cloudy, high-30s, 20-25 mph winds. Not great for kicking or passing.

The Toilet Bowl

I'm running a weekly DraftKings contest where the goal is to have the LOWEST point total rather than the highest.

There's no way to make a paid contest of this sort on DK, but I can promise that the winner each week will get a shoutout in the following week's tournament guide. And if anyone manages to win the contest in two different weeks this season, I'll make a $50 donation to the charity of their choice (or their venmo account).

The winner of the inaugural contest was PowerVulcan (@PowerVulcan), who had the best execution of a popular strategy (stacking Cowboys). A couple other participants actually scored fewer points, but PV took home the win after those lineups were penalized for having zeroes. Here's what the "winning" lineup looked like:

And here are the rules for the contest:

1. All lineups must use at least $49,500 of the salary cap.
2. No using players from the New York Jets, including the D/ST. Automatic DQ for a violation.
3. Any player with zero points automatically adds 3x of their salary to your point total. So you can put an injured player who costs $7,500 in your lineup, but then we're adding 22.5 points to your final score. The same goes for players who aren't injured but nonetheless finish with zero points. However, negative scores are allowed — in fact, they're encouraged — free of any penalty.

OK, here's the link: https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/95475948

Good Luck!