Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 7

Last week wasn't great with a 7-8 overall mark and a 2-3 showing in the Supercontest. It could actually have been a lot worse as my best bet, the Redskins, barely held on, and another Supercontest pick, the Falcons, only covered due to a miracle sequence that included a 57-yard FG and Desean Jackson dropping a lateral for a would-be TD.

This week was tough. I especially like the Jaguars, and that's it. It won't be easy finding four other games for the Supercontest, but I'll post them in the comments when I do.

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THURSDAY NIGHT

Broncos -1.5 at Cardinals

I made this line a pick 'em. I typically like the home team on Thursday nights, and the Broncos aren't good enough to lay wood on the road - even against the Cardinals. Take the points.

Cardinals 20 - 19

EARLY GAMES

Titans +6.5 vs Chargers (London)

I've faded the Chargers the last couple weeks and been burned as they look like the real deal this year. Still, they went from Los Angeles to Cleveland last week, and now they have to go to London. The Titans were at home last week, though they got destroyed by the Ravens, but I'll buy low. Take the points.

Chargers 20 - 16

Patriots -3 at Bears

I made this line 2.5, but figured it would be an even three. The Patriots are back to where we thought they'd be, but I'll take the Bears getting the full field goal at home.

Patriots 24 - 23

Browns +3 at Buccaneers

This is exactly where I set the line too. It would help if the Browns found someone who could catch a pass, but I'll take the points on a total coin flip.

Browns 31 - 30

Lions -1 at Dolphins

The Dolphins are such a weird team. but they tend to show up at home, and I'm not sure it matters much which QB is under center. I made this line a pick 'em, so I suppose I'm on the Dolphins, albeit barely.

Dolphins 24 - 23

Panthers +4.5 at Eagles

I made this line 5.5. I think the Eagles have turned the corner offensively with Alshon Jeffery and Carson Wentz now back to full health. They're also playing on extra rest. Lay the wood.

Eagles 26 - 20

Bills +7.5 at Colts

I thought this line would be a lot smaller, and while I should be on the Bills, that makes me nervous. Buffalo tends to ugly things up and keep it close, but especially if the Colts get T.Y. Hilton back, I could see them striking quickly and pulling away. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the Bills one more time, hoping Derek Anderson gets the nod. Take the points.

Colts 23 - 16

Vikings -3 at Jets

I made this line 2.5 and vowed to take the Jets if it hit three. I have a slight Vikings feeling, but I'll resist that and stick to my guns. Take the Jets.

Vikings 21 - 20

Texans +4.5 at Jaguars

The Jaguars got crushed by the Cowboys last week, but that was a terrible matchup for them - a power running team with a mobile QB who rarely throws to outside receivers. This week, they get a pass-first team with a bad offensive line that relies on its outside receivers. Lay the wood.

Jaguars 27 - 10

LATE GAMES

Saints +2.5 at Ravens

This is probably the right line, though I initially had it at three. I usually like to fade the Saints on the road in these spots, but now that they have a power-running game and a better defense, they can win a slugfest outdoors on grass. Still, I'll stick to my initial lean and lay the wood.

Ravens 26 - 23

Cowboys +1.5 at Redskins

I despise the Redskins offense possibly even more than the Cowboys, but these teams are roughly mirror images of one another. As such, I take the home favorite laying less than the full three. Back Washington.

Redskins 20 - 17

Rams -10 at 49ers

I had this line at 8.5, hoping it would force me to the Rams, but apparently I didn't go big enough. I don't like that the 49ers are home off a short week and a heartbreaking loss, but they honestly looked like a different team on both sides of the ball and outplayed the Packers at Lambeau. The Rams coughed up the backdoor cover, had trouble protecting Jared Goff last week in Denver and travel for the third straight week. I'd like to fade both teams, but I'll stick to my number and take the 49ers.

Rams 28 - 20

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bengals +6 at Chiefs

I made this line 6.5, so I should be on the Chiefs, but self-hating Bengals fan Jeff Erickson thought it would be 10 and thinks Kansas City will roll, making me nervous about it. Always buy when there's maximum pessimism. I'm switching this one to Cincinnati. (If I'm wrong, I'll have someone to blame for making me fade him.)

Chiefs 31 - 27

MONDAY NIGHT

Giants +5.5 at Falcons

I made ths line seven, so I should be on the Falcons, but the Giants always seem to do better on the road, the Falcons' defense has been terrible and I have a nice hedge should Eliability give away this game - he'll at least be closer to losing his job. Take the Giants.

Falcons 27 - 24

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Last week, I went 7-8 to put me at 52-38-3 on the year, won my best bet, the Redskins (3-3 overall), and went 2-3 in the Supercontest (17-12-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.